Displacement and Uncertainty: Las Anod

The conflict in Las Anod Somaliland/Somalia continues for the fourth week and there is much to comment on. I will however endeavor to limit myself to commenting on reporting on the conflict, with a special emphasis on the uncertainties of the scope of the conflict. Specifically I highlight why I believe the number of people displaced by the conflict from Sool is highly inflated.

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The polarized field

It is crucial to remind everyone, in no uncertain terms, that the truth is often the first casualty of war, and the current conflict is no exception. Disinformation, misinformation, and miscalculations are running rampant. To the best of my knowledge, there are no independent journalists or investigators currently present in Las Anod (Laascaanood). Consequently, academic, and journalistic articles and analyses heavily rely on singular sources or voices in a hyper-polarized situation where the divides and in-group loyalties between the competing or complementing positions appears to continue to escalate. By "ideologies," I am referring to the patriotism towards the de-facto state of Somaliland on one side, and equal sentiments towards the parastatal SSC-Khatuumo State organization and the Federal State of Somalia (along with the Pan-Somali or Soomaali-Weyne ideology). Furthermore, clan allegiances add another layer of complexity. I should here point out that I in no way insinuate that individuals clan affiliation by necessity is a determinant factor for political position, nor that clan, sub-clan, and so on, simply are influenced by matters of loyalty along agnatic lineages. Nevertheless, pretending that it doesn’t matter is not a viable way to understand the conflict.

The easiest way to observe the high polarization and misinformation is to browse through Twitter and other social media platforms and search for Las Anod. Right away, you'll be met with hyperbolic, partisan narratives. There are a plethora of narratives, positions, claims, and conspiracies floating around, including but not limited to the Al-Shabaab/terrorist narrative, the genocide/ethnic cleansing narrative, and the Puntland invasion narrative. The most significant issue is the lack of middle positions and the dearth of verifiable information, which is also reflected to a certain extent in the international media.

The displacement uncertainty

Turning first to the numbers and scope of the conflict I believe there is serious reason to question to dominating narratives. International news outlet such as Al-Jazeera, the Guardian and TRT News – to name but a few – as well as opinion pieces by analysts & academics, have all used the numbers 185.000 and – the more recent - 200.000 to describe the number of people displaced by the conflict. That number does however appear to extremely high as it would indicate that 42.3% to 45.8% of the total population of Sool have been displaced.

It is of course not an easy thing to estimate the population of Sool but going by the best available data (which still is critized by Robert Kluijver for giving highly inflated numbers), the 2014 UNFPA and Somali population survey estimation - rather than the many dubious claims such as the 718.000 presented on populationdata.net or the 767,428 on Wikipedia – which found the population in 2013 to be at 327,428. If we then use the general population growth estimate from the government of Somaliland from 2021, at 2.93%, we find that population of Sool in 2023 should be around 437,000. If we for the sake argument raise the annual growth percentage to 3.5 – an estimated high point for 2019 to 2020 for all of Somalia according one source – we find the population to be 462,000. Even with thee inflated growth number that would mean that at least 40% of the population of Sool now are refugees or IDPs.

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A criticism of the source

A staggeringly high number which as it turns out is based on very slim amounts of evidence. The source for this high number is a UNOCHA statement on reliefweb.int on the 16 of February: “An interagency assessment mission conducted by humanitarian partners in Puntland visited villages that are hosting internally displaced people (IDPs) in Boocame, Taleex, Buuhoodle and Xudun Districts in Sool Region from 11 to 13 February. The assessment team reported that more than 185,000 people have been displaced by the fighting in Laas Caanood; an estimated 89 per cent of the IDPs in the assessed areas are women and children.”. In other words, the entire estimate is based on a three day assessment mission by unknown partners from Puntland that visited four locations (it is very uncertain what is meant by districts here, as it at least does not follow the formal structure in place in Somaliland).

Now I do not wish to cast aspersions on the unnamed partners but given that many in Puntland in one sense or another have a stake in the conflict – as the SSC-Khatuumo forces by and large are composed of parts of the Dhulbahante sub-clan with apparent increasing support from other branches of the Darood Clan-Family or linage – it would have been prudent to supply significantly more information on this assessment mission. After all the size of displacement is a large factor in shaping the narrative on the conflict with the other relative numbers being unverified estimates of up to 200 dead and 700 wounded.

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Be wary of the sources.

The former mayor of the city of Las Anod – who resigned during the first week of the conflict, ostensibly in a protest against the shelling of the city by the military of Somaliland – appears to be the source of these latest casualty counts along with the claim of 200.000 displaced. Getting truly impartial reports from the area is obviously difficult as the city itself is under the control of the SSC-Khatuumo, and parts of the outskirts are controlled by the Somaliland Army, both entities which have strong reasons to control the narrative, and any statements counteracting the official narratives comes at the risk of life or wellbeing, for themselves and their relatives. Still, it is disconcerting to see both academics and journalists presenting their conversation with people in, and around Las Anod as though these are objective truths.

There are also occasionally significant issues with the kind of experts that are being interviewed, as their positionality in relation to the conflict isn’t properly disclosed to the public. This is the case with the interviewee in this news-segment for Al-Jazeera, who has a long professional affiliation with Puntland. He was a minister in the Puntland government to name but one. Another example is found in this article where the international expert is not disclosed as being married to a member of the Dhulbahante clan. This does not necessarily mean he is wrong, but nevertheless it is problematic.

Objectivity is obviously at best an ideal, but it is especially important in situations as uncertain and politicized as the one in Las Anod, to provide as much context on authors as possible, and to read and absorb news and analyses with a very critical mindset.?