Disney’s Latest Numbers: Transparency or Mickey Mouse Math?

Disney just dropped their methodology for estimating ad-supported Monthly Active Users (MAUs) across Disney+, ESPN+, and Hulu. On the surface, this might look like a step toward transparency, but after digging into the details (or lack thereof), I’m wondering:

Is this Disney magic... or sleight of hand? ???

Let’s break it down:

?? The 10-Second Rule

They're counting anyone who watched 10 seconds of content in a month as an "active user." That's like saying you're a gym regular because you walked past Planet Fitness once while eating a Big Mac.

And they’re not clear if this rule applies per platform (Disney+, Hulu, ESPN+) or across the entire bundle. Watch 10 seconds of Mickey Mouse Clubhouse on Disney+? Boom. You’re an “engaged user” on all three.

?? Double (or Triple!) Counting

There’s no de-duplication across platforms. So if you watched The Mandalorian on Disney+ and then flipped over to Hulu for The Bear, you're now twins in Disney's math! It's like counting your checking and savings accounts as proof you're twice as rich.

Add ESPN+ to watch… whatever is on ESPN+… and now you’re three users.

?? Survey Shenanigans

The mouse house surveyed 13,000 people. Disney did the survey themselves. No reputable third-party survey company. No peer review. Just “trust us, bro.”

And that’s not all:

• No details on how accounts or households were selected.
• No clarity on whether they asked about individual viewers or everyone in the household.
• No demographic breakdown. Who’s answering these surveys? A statistically representative sample or Goofy and Donald?

?? No Margin of Error? Seriously?

No margin of error provided… because math is hard when you're wearing giant white gloves.

They cite 2.6 users per household globally, but there’s zero mention of a margin of error. If the real number is 2.5, their total estimate drops from 157 million to around 151 million users. But hey, what’s 6 million users between friends?

?? Averaging Away Reality

They average MAUs over six months. That might smooth out the peaks and valleys, but it also masks trends. Are users growing? Declining? In a holding pattern? Who knows.

?? No Accountability for Methodology Changes

Disney explicitly states they’re not committing to disclosing changes to their methodology. So next year they could redefine an “active user” as anyone who so much as glances at their logo… and we’d never know.

?? Timing is Everything

Launching this during January ad budget season feels as strategic as a New Year’s gym membership pitch: Promise big, deliver less.

January is when many companies are locking in ad budgets. It’s almost as if they’re counting on inflated numbers to sway advertisers.

Disney took "creative accounting" and turned it into "innovative analytics." And they're betting their advertisers will clap politely and throw money at the stage.

Inflated user counts don’t just make headlines; they sway ad budgets and distort ROI expectations. Disney knows the game and they’re playing to win.

Disney says this is a “step toward transparency.” Their methodology is about as transparent as Cinderella's glass slipper with her foot still in it. As clear as the water in Pirates of the Caribbean when the sea battle is raging.

I’d argue it’s a step toward asking questions they don’t want to answer.

Want to know the truth about streaming metrics? Sometimes the most transparent thing is the obvious attempt at obscurity.

So what should we demand?

?? Detailed Methodology: Show us how you’re collecting and calculating these numbers.

?? De-Duplication: Don’t count me three times just because I have a Disney+ bundle.

?? Third-Party Audits: Independent validation builds trust.

?? Trustworthy Surveys: Get a reputable third-party to conduct their surveys.

?? Margins of Error: If the stats aren’t airtight, own it.

?? A Better Engagement Threshold: 10 seconds is a joke.

?? Define “Ad-Supported Content”: Does this include all content with ads or only content within ad-supported subscription tiers? Clarity here could significantly change the numbers.

Oh, and stop treating us like idiots.

What do you think of Disney’s methodology? Personally, I’ve seen this show before and didn’t stay for the full season.

P.S. They're presenting this at CES, which is perfect because what happens in Vegas...

#DataTransparency #StreamingMedia #AdTech

IMPORTANT NOTE: The opinions expressed here are mine and mine alone. They should not be taken as representing the view of my employer or any other organization with which I am affiliated.