Discussion with ChatGPT about the Doomsday Glacier

Me: “Based on the latest discoveries about the doomsday glacier, when is the earliest it is possible it will break loose?”

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GPT:

Recent research indicates that the Thwaites Glacier, commonly known as the "Doomsday Glacier," could experience significant destabilization and potential collapse within the next three to five years. The primary concern is the rapid melting and weakening of the glacier due to the intrusion of warm ocean water beneath it. This warm water accelerates melting from below, reducing the glacier's grip on its underlying bedrock and making it more susceptible to fracturing and collapse.

Over the past decade, the glacier has lost approximately 1,000 billion tons of ice and continues to lose about 50 billion tons more ice annually than it gains from snowfall. The glacier's rapid deterioration has led scientists to predict that the ice shelf could shatter within the next few years, leading to the glacier's faster flow into the ocean. This collapse could contribute significantly to global sea level rise, potentially raising it by more than two feet initially, and up to ten feet if it causes surrounding glaciers to follow suit (Space.com) (livescience.com).

This information highlights the urgency for continued monitoring and research to better understand the glacier's behavior and prepare for its potential impacts on global sea levels and coastal communities.

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Me: “What will this mean for the Bay Area in California if this collapse occurs?”

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GPT:

The potential collapse of the Thwaites Glacier, also known as the "Doomsday Glacier," could have significant impacts on the Bay Area in California. The collapse could contribute to a rise in global sea levels by up to 10 feet over the long term if it triggers the destabilization of surrounding glaciers in West Antarctica. Here are some of the expected effects:

1. Sea Level Rise: The immediate impact would be an increase in sea levels by more than two feet, which would gradually worsen if the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet follows Thwaites' collapse. This could lead to more frequent and severe flooding in coastal areas of the Bay Area, especially during high tides and storm surges (State of the Planet) (Public Radio International).
2. Coastal Erosion and Infrastructure Damage: Rising sea levels would accelerate coastal erosion, threatening infrastructure, homes, and businesses along the shoreline. Key infrastructure, including roads, bridges, and wastewater treatment plants, could face increased risk of damage or require costly adaptations (Public Radio International).
3. Ecosystem Disruption: The increase in sea levels would disrupt coastal ecosystems, affecting habitats for various species. Wetlands and marshes could be submerged, altering the natural landscape and impacting wildlife dependent on these environments.
4. Economic Impact: The economic implications could be significant, with potential property damage running into billions of dollars. Businesses in low-lying areas might face increased insurance costs and operational disruptions. Tourism, a vital part of the Bay Area's economy, could also be adversely affected by the changing coastline and increased flooding risks.
5. Adaptation and Mitigation Efforts: Local governments and communities would need to invest in extensive adaptation measures, such as building seawalls, improving drainage systems, and implementing zoning laws to prevent new construction in vulnerable areas. These efforts would require substantial funding and long-term planning (State of the Planet) (Public Radio International).

The situation underscores the importance of global efforts to mitigate climate change and the need for local strategies to adapt to rising sea levels and protect coastal communities.

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Me: “Which areas will experience the greatest flooding and swamping of homes?”

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GPT:

The collapse of the Thwaites Glacier, often referred to as the "Doomsday Glacier," could have significant implications for the Bay Area in California, primarily due to rising sea levels. The areas that will experience the greatest flooding and swamping of homes include:

1. Marin County: This county is particularly vulnerable, with approximately 28% of its population at risk if sea levels rise by four feet. Even with a 12-inch rise, nearly one in five residents would be affected. Low-lying areas along the shoreline are most at risk (Vital Signs).
2. San Mateo County: Known to be the most vulnerable county in California to sea level rise, over 30,000 homes, several schools, hospitals, and about 7,000 acres of wetlands are at risk of flooding by 2070 if sea levels rise by up to 3.3 feet. By 2100, sea levels could rise by six feet, exacerbating these risks (Save The Bay).
3. Solano County: Areas such as Vallejo, which are located in low-lying regions along the Bay, are also highly susceptible to flooding. Similar to Marin and San Mateo counties, Solano County faces significant risks from sea level rise and storm surges (Vital Signs).
4. East Palo Alto: This city, along with other areas along the shoreline, already experiences coastal flooding and erosion during storms. Future sea level rise will likely intensify these issues, leading to more frequent and severe flooding (KQED).
5. San Francisco Waterfront Communities: Neighborhoods such as Bayview-Hunters Point, Mission Bay, and Treasure Island will be impacted by sea level rise of three feet or more. Approximately 16,500 residents in these areas could be affected by a four-foot sea level rise scenario (Vital Signs).

In summary, the Bay Area faces significant challenges from rising sea levels, with the most vulnerable areas being Marin, San Mateo, and Solano counties, as well as specific cities like East Palo Alto and parts of San Francisco. Local governments and communities will need to implement extensive adaptation measures to mitigate the impact on homes, infrastructure, and the environment.

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Me: “How likely is it that a collapse of the glacier will occur in the next 3 to 5 years?”

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GPT:

The likelihood of the Thwaites Glacier, or "Doomsday Glacier," collapsing within the next 3 to 5 years is considered significant by many scientists. Research indicates that the glacier is experiencing rapid changes due to warm ocean water melting it from below and loosening its grip on the seafloor, which accelerates its destabilization. Some scientists predict that a critical section of the glacier's ice shelf could collapse within this time frame, which would significantly hasten the glacier's overall retreat and ice loss (State of the Planet) (Space.com).

Specifically, the ice shelf that helps stabilize the glacier is highly vulnerable and could shatter within a few years. If this happens, the rest of the glacier could accelerate its flow into the ocean, contributing to a notable rise in sea levels (Space.com) (The World from PRX).

However, while the immediate collapse of the ice shelf seems plausible, the complete disintegration of the glacier and its full impact on sea levels might unfold over a longer period, potentially spanning decades. Scientists continue to monitor and study the glacier to refine their predictions and understand the full scope of its potential impacts (The World from PRX).

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Me: “If you had to give it a percent for likelihood between 0 and 100, what would this be?”

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GPT:

Assigning a precise probability to the likelihood of the Thwaites Glacier collapsing within the next 3 to 5 years is challenging due to the inherent uncertainties in glaciological and climatic processes. However, based on the current research and expert opinions, it is possible to provide an informed estimate.

Researchers have highlighted that the glacier's ice shelf, which acts as a stabilizing force, could break apart within the next few years. Some estimates suggest that the collapse of a significant portion of the ice shelf could occur within this timeframe, making the glacier more prone to rapid disintegration.

Given the findings from various studies and expert statements, it seems reasonable to estimate the likelihood of a significant collapse of the Thwaites Glacier's ice shelf within the next 3 to 5 years at approximately 40% to 60%. This estimate accounts for the observed rapid changes, the predictions made by scientists, and the ongoing research indicating high instability in the glacier.

This percentage reflects a moderate to high probability, emphasizing the urgent need for continued monitoring and research to better understand and prepare for the potential impacts of such an event (State of the Planet) (Space.com) (The World from PRX).

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Me: “Given this estimate, and taking into account the current rate of collapse, how would this percentage change for a 10 year timeframe?”

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GPT:

Considering the current rate of ice loss and the observed instability of the Thwaites Glacier, the likelihood of a significant collapse within a 10-year timeframe would increase compared to the shorter 3 to 5-year period. The glacier has been undergoing rapid changes, with its ice shelf thinning and retreating faster than previously recorded.

Given the acceleration in ice loss and the increased warming of ocean waters affecting the glacier, scientists have noted that the potential for collapse grows with time if current trends continue. Observations and models suggest that without significant changes in climate patterns or interventions to mitigate further warming, the instability of the glacier will only worsen.

For a 10-year timeframe, it is reasonable to estimate the likelihood of a significant collapse of the Thwaites Glacier's ice shelf at approximately 70% to 90%. This estimate takes into account the progressive nature of the glacier's retreat and the increasing factors contributing to its instability over a longer period.

This higher percentage reflects the growing consensus among researchers that while a collapse within the next few years is possible, the chances increase substantially over a decade due to the ongoing and compounding effects of climate change and the glacier's inherent vulnerabilities (State of the Planet) (Space.com) (The World from PRX).

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