Discerning the Post-COVID World: Accelerations, Blips and Inflection Points
By Martin Reeves, Mark Abraham, and Benjamin Said
Social values have often changed after deep social crises like wars and contagions and these have often altered patterns of consumption. Crises also create acute but temporary short-term demand shifts due to hoarding or postponement of purchase. Companies seeking opportunity in adversity pore over high-frequency data to try to spot emerging trends so that they can create an early mover advantage and plan ahead. But the key challenge is distinguishing temporary from more permanent shifts in demand. One of the four methods we suggest in our recent paper is comparing long-term trends with crisis-induced short-term shifts and noting where they match and contradict. The diagram below is based on credit card and IRI data from the US for March 2020 vs. last three year trends in the same categories. It shows that in some cases (“accelerations”) the short-term uplift or decline reinforces pre-existing trends, indicating a strong likelihood that the trend will survive and be reinforced.
In other cases (“blips and inflection points”) short-term trends contradict long-term ones, suggesting either temporary effects or inflection points in the pattern of demand, in which case further scrutiny should be given to the segment using the other three methods in our article – looking at geographical precedents, maverick activity and analyzing consumer frictions.
Of course, demand shifts are not passive – they can also be created and amplified by innovators. But the same analysis can give hints at underlying drivers and innovation targets, by analyzing the clustering patterns of segments in different quadrants.
***
About the BCG Henderson Institute
The BCG Henderson Institute is the Boston Consulting Group’s strategy think tank, dedicated to exploring and developing valuable new insights from business, technology, and science by embracing the powerful technology of ideas. The Institute engages leaders in provocative discussion and experimentation to expand the boundaries of business theory and practice and to translate innovative ideas from within and beyond business. For more ideas and inspiration, sign up to receive BHI INSIGHTS, our monthly newsletter, and follow us on LinkedIn and Twitter: @BCGHenderson
Strategist l Business Excellence Senior Manager l Management Consultant for Business Transformation
4 年Great work Martin Reeves. As per these trends and shifts, post COVID-19 Businesses need to immediately Re-Define Objectives for next 3-6 months & 1 year. Accordingly Re-Structuring (Balanced Core Teams), Re-Strategizing (Strategy Execution. Risks, Business Continuity etc) and Re-Measuring (Readjusting goal setting and measurement system for measuring only what matters) will be required. Businesses would need to be Re-wired to tap into the untapped potential of Organizational Health.
Future of Work Strategist I Leadership, HR and Organisation Transformation Expert I Professor of Practice I Board Director I Author I Keynote Speaker
4 年Leigh Zwaan (PhD)
C-Level Executive | Revenue Growth Leader | Go-To-Market Execution | Sales & Marketing Operations | Commercial Transformation
4 年No doubt Martin Reeves that certain industries will see a surge in demand or pent up demand. Excellent point!