Directional drilling companies!! Follow the money!!
I have about 1500 deep worldwide connections, and I would like to hear from all of you about the following theory:
We have seen this downturn in our industry before. In the late 90s we saw $10/barrel oil price, and we recovered, and we will recover this time too, but the question is when? The problem with taking it longer than expected is that most of the smaller companies will either close down or be bought by major companies. To be frank, I was expecting to see the recovery much earlier as I underestimated the suffering from geopolitics, Iran’s ability to increase their production tremendously in a short time, significant capital cutbacks by majors, not much drilling around the world, and I was sure that the Saudi would go broke by now. Iran is engaged in a battle for market share with Saudi Arabia and other regional rivals. This fight would not finish soon.
Directional drilling market is a competitive environment in which are winners or losers, and the companies that have the wider and more global perspective will inevitably prevail. The reason is simple: such companies will be able to think beyond the moment and control the overall dynamic through careful strategizing. Most companies are perpetually locked in the present. Any business in any era must be able to adjust rapidly to the ebb and flow of currents in its industry - or, better still, to anticipate and stay ahead of them.
My theory is that the US election by the end of the year is another factor in oil price change, depending on which party should win. If Republicans win, they’ll find a way to break the deal with Iran and bring back the sanctions, and therefore the oil production will decrease, and oil price will rise; if the Democrats win, not only, Iran will not bring their production down nor Saudi. Iran will be a great place for investment since US sent a plane with $400 million in cash and over $150B will be back to mend its economy. Royal Dutch is working hard to figure out a way to pay NIOC $1 billion. Iran needs new techniques, manpower, drilling experts and technology for its oil production, and there is no competition in directional drilling for now.
The odds of winning the election by the Republicans are 30% to 48%. In my opinion now is the best time for drilling companies to begin negotiating contracts since the first gets there the best deal they can get.
Businesses can control their future with sending their salespeople to Iran with just $5000 to $10000 for negotiation purposes and get ready for the right time to get on the market.
MONEY MAKES MONEY and businesses have to follow the money
Mani Khaghani
Advisor Energy Resources Corp & Team Leader at LIS Thailand Co., Ltd
8 年As mentioned, so many issues are involved. A knowledge based economy with no war can produce to surplus. Renewable energies are taking some of the market growth from fossil fuels. Community attitude. How friendly is the fossil fuel and mining industry to the community and does protest impact consumption. Deflation will progress if the Democrats are elected because there will be more peace in community. Looks to me like a paradigm shift is progressing based on educated populations realizing working in competition following the money isn't working. Cooperation amongst cultures, communities, business, government seems to be the way. So with a theme of self sustaining well decommissioning, new systems and technologies can work with 40 dlrs / bbl but what is needed is a 30 dlr / bbl fuel tax to assure a user pays for the cost of the paradigm shift.
Founder at Envirolize Global Technologies
8 年Great read Gamal Abou Elkhair. Thanks for your comment.
B.Sc. in Marine Engineering, Alexandria University ; Certified IACCM Expert CCME
8 年This my understanding based on some analysis news: As a group, the supermajors IOCs, control around 6% of global oil and gas reserves. Conversely, 88% of global oil and gas reserves are controlled by the OPEC cartel and state-owned oil companies, primarily located in the Middle East. A trend of increasing influence of the OPEC cartel, state-owned oil companies in emerging-market economies is shown and the Financial Times has used the label "The New Seven Sisters" to refer to a group of what it argues are the most influential national oil and gas companies based in countries outside of the OECD, namely CNPC (China), Gazprom (Russia), National Iranian Oil Company (Iran), Petrobras (Brazil), PDVSA (Venezuela), Petronas (Malaysia), Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabia). Stable in Oil & Gas market will get better only after this situation get changed to the advantage of the supermajors IOCs through certain percentage(s) of Acquisition, through which, only supermajors IOCs shall have the dominant influence over oil market.
Founder at Envirolize Global Technologies
8 年Thanks Peter for your comment.
Founder at Envirolize Global Technologies
8 年Great read, David. Thanks for your comment.