Direct confrontation imminent, Iran’s vow to fracture the dome

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely my own opinion and do not represent the opinions of the individuals or organization with which I am associated.

For the first time in more than two decades, Iran fired drones, and missiles directly towards Israeli territory. The attack included more than 170 suicide drones, as well as 110 ballistic missiles and 30 cruise missiles. This barrage of sophisticated weapons flew over multiple countries including Iraq, Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon. However, most of these drones and missiles were intercepted outside of Israel. The IDF, with the help of US, UK, France, and Jordan, mentioned it had intercepted more than 99% of projectiles fired towards Israel.

Two US officials said five ballistic missiles evaded air defences and landed in the Nevatim airbase. One missile hit a runway, another hit an empty aircraft hangar and one hit a hangar that was out of use. A fifth ballistic missile seemed to have aimed at a radar site in northern Israel but missed its target. It is speculated that the strike was conveyed to the US administration via intermediaries like the Iraqi government. My primary conviction is that Iran aims to steer clear of a direct conflict with the US or Israel. A direct conflict could devastate Iran’s nuclear program—a program inching closer to the development of a potent nuclear arsenal.

The Iranian attack is in response to an airstrike Israel conducted on April 1 against the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria. Six IRGC generals, including a key liaison between the IRGC and Hezbollah died. This strike caught Iran and its Axis of Resistance (AoR) allies off guard, particularly Hezbollah, which has been engaged in frequent exchanges with Israel. Hezbollah has suffered numerous losses since the conflict began on October 8th.

What has Iran benefitted from the strike??

The retaliatory strike by Iran showcased a distinct approach and intensity compared to the Israeli attack in Damascus on April 1. While Israel successfully eliminated six IRGC commanders in a single strike in Damascus, the Iranian response resulted in significant injuries to an Arab Bedouin and minor injuries to a few Israeli citizens from missile fragments, without causing major military damage. Despite the limited impact in military terms, Iran derived significantly benefited. Firstly, it had an opportunity to test its long-standing inventory of drones and missiles. Secondly, it assessed the range and effectiveness of its projectiles towards Israeli territory. Thirdly, the strike served as a test of Israel's reaction time and defense capabilities in the event of a direct conflict. Fourthly, Iran could have used the strikes as a deterrence strategy.

These factors prompted Iran to conduct the strike directly from its own territory rather than through proxies—a noteworthy shift, particularly given Hezbollah's history of inflicting significant blows on the Israeli military in the north.

?The bigger picture: a wider conflict in the Middle East

The recent developments indicate that things can get out of hand, very quickly, if diplomacy fails. The US is striving to broker diplomatic solutions to quell tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, as well as the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. Some experts believe a full-scale regional war has not commenced. However, some analysts, including myself believe we are already in the midst of one. Despite the absence of direct confrontations between major powers like Israel, Iran, and the US, a proxy war is unfolding across the region. A direct confrontational regional war could lead to massive consequences to all parties involved, including Israel, Hezbollah, Iran, and the US.

Diplomacy is key, and with the US elections coming up, a greater war in the region would not look good for the Biden Administration. The US administration has suffered in as much as its military-industrial complex has profited from the Russian-Ukrainian war and the Israel-Hamas. This has heightened the stakes of the US presidential elections; Donald Trump’s Republicans are capitalizing on the instances of Biden’s failed diplomacy. The future of the region does not look bright. Iran and the US are still trying to avoid a direct regional confrontation whereas Israel is divided. The idea of conducting additional Israeli retaliatory strikes against Iran looms through Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s-led War Cabinet. Netanyahu maintains Israel will go out and all the way militarily against Iran. However, other Israeli leaders see the matter closed to avoid a multi-arena war in the region.

It has been claimed, at around dawn today, that Israel launched a strike against Iran. The Israeli military was poised to retaliate against Iran following the recent strike, at least to save face. However, it is likely that the US did not know about such a strike and had not communicated it with the Iranians. The possibility of a continued cycle of tit-for-tat exchanges between Israel and Iran cannot be ruled out. This cycle has the potential to escalate rapidly, especially if the US fails to exert pressure on Israel. The latter may see a larger conflict as a means to shift attention away from Gaza, where recent events have sparked considerable criticism of both Israeli and American administrations. The continuous escalation between Israel and Iran seems imminent, especially in today’s terms. However, only a tactical nuclear weapon may fracture the dome…