DIGITAL TRENDS 2020-30, PART 6: THE EMERGING TECHNOLOGY - Next 10 Years There will be Three Emerging Technologies that Changes it All
We have been through this before. Harari has been through it. Bostr?m has been there, Tegmark as well. And if we exclude biotech – i.e. the other half of Emerging Technologies, the half that might carry with it at least as much risk as potential - then what I’ve forecasted in the infotech part in the past, has only become more true and true. So here's the upd8. It is the three ABA-technologies that will have the biggest impact for you over the next decade, for individuals and society, for nature and culture, for the people and the planet.
The really great difference from other parts of Emerging Technology (EmTech), is that within these fundamental parts of the most disruptive new technological development, there are risks but there are at least as many opportunities.
If we do it right, it will render a completely different planet, and a completely different humanity. But it will mean a rescued planet and a developed humanity.
If we don't do it right, I don't even want to think about what might happen. Let's therefor together make sure we will use the right technology in the right way for the right reason, and thus see to it that we can look forward to a decade of prosperity for the people AND the planet ??
The Raison D'être of EmTech
One of the questions I always tend to get on my international speeches, is why I always seem so “enthusiastic” about Emerging technology. The answer is like for so many technologies that "it is an interesting invention with some massive disruptive potential" - but with the difference that in this case some of the applications are "my" kind of inventions, and "my" kind of disruption. Or to be more specific, my kind are the applications with potential for massive social impact.
So how come I am so passionately interested in social impact? Well, in a world looking as it does right now, I could as well counter and ask how you could not be passionately devoted to social impact? And then I imply with every single mean, not least the use of technology with proven potential for helping the next generation to get at least as good social platform and planet as we’ve had for ourselves.
But, still, that would not have been a truly honest response. Actually, had this been 6 years ago, it could in fact have been me asking exactly the same question. At that time, I was, like today, a serial entrepreneur, with an advanced data science for changing perceptions. In my company I had been working with over 100 local and global brands in four continents, like Samsung, IKEA, Mercedes, Electrolux etc. Using a five-block recipe for success, I had?half a dozen digital ventures winning prices for growth, with two-three ok exits.
I had written 4 books and chaired ventures with 15 million downloads. Privately I was lifting six figure wages, driving Mercedes, having a luxury apartment in the nicest area in Sweden, another one in the Greek paradise islands, and a villa in Spain. I was living the life of my dreams…
…or so I thought.
The conversion from serial entrepreneur to social entrepreneur
Because in the middle of all this, I got what I finally found out was the most precious gift possible from the world. After some medical turbulence I received the two most adorable human beings that I have ever met in my life, my twin boys. And since then my life was transformed from not – at least not only – thinking with my wallet, but at least as much with my heart.
Every time I heard on the news about kids being bombed in the Syrian war, I reflected on the possibility that this could have been my boys if they had been born in “the wrong” place. Every horrible thing I read about the future climate, I got terrified about the fact that this would be the planet that my boys will grow up in :-/
So, I changed. And ever since then, a little more than six years ago, I have been putting at least half of my 200% entrepreneurial energy, sometimes all of it, in how to give this gift back to society. I shall not bore you with every impact we’ve tried to accomplish, and many times succeeded in doing, but in effect I - parallel to my other companies - started an NGO helping 70.000 refugees in 17 places where I (still on my “free” time) went down to Croatia, Slovenia, Serbia, Idomeni, Lesbos and finally meeting the real victims of Isis not only in Syria but in Iraq outside of Mosul in Dohuk (more on that here https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/you-think-tech-couldnt-save-world-yes-can-now-rufus-lidman-fil-lic-/).
Finally, it came to a halt. I myself and my fellow angels volunteers could ourselves only help but a “few” thousands of children and mothers escaping from the war. At least without technology. In fact, I finally came to my senses and re-understood that I could contribute to the enabling of millions with the help of the digital technology I've been working so intensively with as an entrepreneur .
So back to business. Further down the road I wrote a rather well perceived open letter to the World Economic Forum in Davos (https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/davos-solution-world-problems-already-here-rufus-lidman/), and just to show the way from theory to action, I started what has become my legacy to this world, using technology to not only do well for investors (which we should always - ! - do), but also do good for society. Or, in other words, during the years I converted from a true serial entrepreneur to an even more true social entrepreneur.
And that’s (!) where my interest for EmTech comes in ???
The broader perspective of disruption
Having said all this, am I thus one of these “Tech Evangelists” - praising one technology above any other, telling the world that some specific technology alone holds the key to salvation and paradise?
Well, kind of not. Instead I am still a digital strategist and very much a serial entrepreneur, though more and more converted into a social entrepreneur. And as a strategist and entrepreneur I thus in both thought and action naturally want to put the more disruptive new technologies in the broader perspective as part of emerging technologies (EmTech) in general, and its impact on society in particular.
And why is that so? Because all of us who know our change strategies (the theme for my thesis during my PhD studies), know that no chain is stronger than the weakest link. That means that a strong link can rarely by itself make a true brutal impact, it’s “the chain” who does the job (or the whole "ecosystem” in more technical terms).
The impact value actually to be foreseen
Noting that EmTech doesn’t act isolated from each other, the next question is whether EmTech as a combined force promises to have any true social impact?
And the simple answer is yes, it is about to explode in a dramatic social impact. EmTech is not anymore only doing "interesting" things like playing chess, go and solving Rubik’s cube, but is today treating cancer and blindness through the image recognition of test results. It is saving soldiers life’s, and killing others, by using heart recognition for snipers and advanced EmTech in drones. It is making whole countries use less fossil fuels than renewable energy. It helps out in ignorance of rape, sex life, and birth control. It is making the logistics for big transportation companies 90% less complex. It makes paralyzed able to walk again through EmTech integrated exoskeletons. It is making repairing of cars and surgery dramatically more efficient through augmented ET.
And we haven’t seen nothing yet - there is a reason why we call this tech for “emerging” so to speak (for those who want a look into this future, see the upcoming articles).
The second question then comes automatically – i.e. if these impacts are so dramatic, they will surely all be positive, no? Well, unfortunately not. Some will be good, some even phenomenal. But some will be directly horrible, to some degree due to intended bad consequences from “evil minds”, but to an even bigger degree due to totally unintentionally bad consequences, caused by sub optimization and unforeseen aspects etc.
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In neither of the positive or negative cases it will be because the technology is inherently good as the evangelists cry out, or inherently evil as the paranoid horror pictures try to evoke. On the contrary the technology is neither friend or enemy, it’s totally neutral - like a hammer that you can kill someone with or build hospitals with.
It those all depends on what we, as humans, decide to do with the technology, no? Well, in the case of intended good or evil it of course depends on our intentions. But in the case of unintended consequences it is because of our handling of?information - i.e. how we assemble, process and analyse the information about our EmTech to make it work for life, not against life.
The impact type actually to be foreseen
Considering the enormous social impact of the combined EmTech, both the good and bad ones, if we thus don’t assemble, process and analyse the data correctly, the result will be disasters of a magnitude never seen in the (admittedly short) history of mankind.
Truly? Yes, truly. So, what are these “disasters” all about? Well, researchers don’t always specify them in exactly the same way, but on a high level the three main disasters all regard different versions of this:
The three most intense impacts of emerging tech
So taking the assessment of good and bad consequences of EmTech as the take-off, the first question is which of these emerging technologies will have the highest social impact.?Even though we find a lot of potential impact in the whole toolbox of EmTech candidates, a true social analysis soon points to three technologies playing in a division by itself (for now focusing on infotech), below called ABA, all playing different roles in the same disruptive game.
So what is so special with these three particular deep techs, why will they be so dramatically disruptive? Simply due to all three ABA-technologies inducing a creative destruction on the three most fundamental processes of us all as social beings.
The first regards our handling of Information, where we humans until recently has been the species with the most advanced possibility to assess, process and analyse data from the environment. And when we have, and matched this analysis with our own interests and ideals, there are two fundamental actions resulting from this.
First we will want to have Inter-action with the environment, in the old world with love to our fellow tribe members and defense or offense to the less friendly ones, as well as all possible ways to assemble information about ways to get access to food, water and sheltering - in the new world all complemented by the interaction with colleagues, companies and governments etc.
To this we can add the next action, the Trans-action of things between you and the environment, again in the old world concerning things like food, water and material for sheltering, while in the modern world adding money, tools, machines and technique etc. The point is that all three of these fundamental social processes now are being dramatically disrupted by EmTech in general and ABA-technologies in particular:
The biggest social program in history of mankind
Looking at the both positive and negative effects of EmTech in general, and the devastating ABA in particular, the analytical person can thus easily foresee threats never seen in this world.
More specifically it could lead to the end of mankind as we know it, where without AI ethics and not answering the question why, super intelligent AI can take command over human beings as a species. BC could on its part unintentionally destroy valuable institutions functioning as glue to the society. AR could digitize the human mind with constant halo-effect, fake news and selective perception of other peoples' suffering and climate crisis denial.
But handled correctly - that is the assembling, processing and analysing of data correctly - the action-oriented person at the same time acknowledge that an equally probable scenario would be for ABA to form the basis of the biggest social impact program ever seen in the history of mankind. The catalyzation of such a program could look like something below (see attachment 1-3).
So, when we know what could, and perhaps should happen in theory, now it’s time for you and me, to make it happen In practice.
So that’s what me and my colleagues are totally devoted to in AIAR. And we are doing it with the strongest tool to make a change in this world. And in one of the biggest markets in this world. We are reinventing global learning for the billions in need living in emerging markets.
Actions speaks louder than words. So, now done with words, now, again: action.
Factum verum :-)
Rufus Lidman, Fil. Lic.
Rufus Lidman is one of the worlds’ top 100 tech influencers with 50.000 followers for input with emerging technology within emerging markets. As such he draws his insights from a broad tech experience with PhD-studies within change processes, 5 books on the subject of digital strategy, background as a serial entrepreneur with 6 ventures and 2-3 ok exits, and honoured to be member of the exclusive group of 0,1% companies that has developed apps with more than 10 million downloads. His latest venture is called?AIAR, based in Singapore (with dev in Vietnam and CM in Philippines), reinventing mobile learning for emerging markets in general and emerging Asia in particular.?