Digital Project Delivery – how is it going, and how to tell easily?

Delivery Performance Rules of Thumb?

The "rule of thumb" was an original 17th century reference to a rough, practical method of measuring or doing something. It reflects the practical, experience-based nature by which some people can work, similar to other body part measurements like "foot" for length (See Ref# 1).?

Cooks and chefs know what it is to cook by feel and taste, while in some circumstances, they will rely on specific measurements.? For some of us, specific measurements are required all the time to avoid making a mess.?

Is the “rule of thumb” relevant for applying to digital technology projects??

When you see enough projects, and some of my team and I have seen some hundreds of projects, you can get a very quick sense of where any project is at very quickly.? There can be the occasional one that can be a little hidden and elusive, but most leave a few clues on where they are at.?

An example?

Some years ago, our team joined a very large program of work.? By large, I am referring to a >$100M program.? This was about July in this particular year, and they were publicly scheduled to go-live with their first go-live (of multiple go-lives) in November of that year, about four months away.?

On my first day on-site, I walked around, talking to various team members, getting a sense of current priorities, focus, challenges etc.? I was not on a witch hunt just casual conversations and curiosity on current status and focus. We needed to work with the existing team and needed to know where they were at so we could do our part.? It was basic questions for the PMO, some team leads, some executives.?

I finished up that day by declaring and quietly advising a few people that they have no chance of achieving their planned November go-live, four months away.? Everyone was in denial at this stage, pushing forward but blindly unaware of what was still required.?

Two months later, and two months out from go-live they announced a deferral to February the following year.? Again, I quietly advised that this was not long enough.? They ultimately delayed again and eventually went live in June of that next year, an eight-month delay from the original November date, and 12 months after I first got on-site.?

Rules of Thumb?

How could their situation be so clear?? Rules of thumb are the ways in which those with experience can make rapid assessments.? And I was simply applying these rules of thumb without thinking or measuring when assessing this project (See Ref# 2).???

It took me about half a dozen conversations.? I got told what they had done and what they were now focused on.? From there it was easy enough to know what remaining tasks they had left to do.? It is possible that I knew more about their forward work plan than they did at that moment.? I was applying my experience and rules of thumb.?

Is this unique?

There are many people in all fields of endeavor who have this ability, who are experienced enough and have applied that experience often enough to multiple scenarios that they can be trusted with it.? They have developed the ability to quickly assess situations.? But there can be risks with this approach.?

What risks??

Absolutely there are risks.? People making these rough and ready judgements aren’t always right, and even if they are, it doesn’t mean a project team will not recover.? These assessments are never black and white, and they are never about one or more items being the one indicator or proof of where a project is at.? It is always a range of things and a balance of probability, and when those things are validated and that probability stacks in one direction, then you can be confident of the current trajectory and likelihood of future performance, or non-performance (See Ref# 3).?

Is there a key factor??

I have had many conversations with many people, and some can be adamant that one thing or another is the key “factor”.? This is never true.? One or more factors can be important, but their importance can vary based on the project, and there can be mitigations to offset them that may be getting applied.?

Take something as simple as a project schedule.? Yes, critical.? How can work get organized, allocated, and done without one?? And what about dependencies being defined and mapped into that schedule?? I have seen some projects without well planned dependencies which have created mission critical issues and delays.? I have had other projects with even less dependency management and no issues.? This can be because:?

1. The importance of dependency management to a project’s success can vary markedly, and/or?

1. They had other ways of managing dependencies, mitigating this risk.?

Validations?

This also means that assessments cannot be one dimensional.? Seeing a range of factors, including being able to validate views is critical.? Relying on one indicator and assessing it in just one way is a sure-fire way of not assessing programs or projects effectively.? Validations and confirmations are necessary to provide a sound assessment.?

Formal versus Informal methods part 1?

A good example of how some things can be poorly managed, but well mitigated, is the ability for teams to balance the need for formal or informal methods.? Let’s take dependency management.? Yes, dependencies defined, linked into a Gantt chart, responsibilities allocated, and formal reporting on each, is an effective way of managing dependencies.? It is a formal way, using standard management methods.?

But a team can get away without that.? If the Dependencies are known, and people are talking continuously, then they can mitigate the lack of formal methods via informal methods of open, transparent and collaborative communication and teamwork.?

Pandemic lessons?

The pandemic proved to be a good case study in the effectiveness of formal versus informal communication and management methods.?

Corridor conversations, quick impromptu gatherings, overhearing other conversations, physical town halls, and leaders being in positions where they are asked questions means there are both opportunities for gaining knowledge and more accountability on having the knowledge that others need, due to questions that can arise at any time (See Ref# 4).?

All these happen in a physically co-located team.? They don’t happen so easily when everyone is working at home or in a virtual environment.? Attempts at doing so include pre-scheduled video meetings, virtual town halls (where most have their cameras off while they do secondary tasks), and email communications.?

We proved this many times with our extensive project and assurance review, seeing many projects up close and personal.? Through the pandemic, many team members had key knowledge gaps, including key and senior people who had key knowledge gaps at times.?

In the absence of informal communications through the pandemic, formal communications mechanisms needed to uplift to offset this.? This could be in the form of detailed schedules and work allocations, solid risk and issues management, and well-structured meeting agendas.? But there was not always an uplift, with pre-existing project delivery disciplines continuing and basic substitution of communications from physical to digital.? But as illustrated, this is not a substitution.? Using engineering terms, there can be frequency loss in the virtual transmission medium.?

The opposite is also true though.? Highly effective teamwork and communications can offset the need for formal methods at time.? The bigger the team, the harder this becomes though.?

Formal versus informal methods part 2?

As projects and programs grow in size, formal methods become more critical.? Two things are key indicators of this complexity.? One is team size.? As team numbers increase, the number of communications pathways increase exponentially (See Ref#6).? For instance:?

• 3 team members create 3 possible communications channels between them.?

• 6 team members create 15 possible communications channels.?

• 12 team members create 66 possible communications channels.?

• 24 team members create 276 possible communications channels.?

Once you start getting into 12 team members, it is unlikely a project will have a single two-tier structure.? You will likely have a project with three organizational layers (or more - including the PM).??

While smaller projects can operate with message passing and task allocations by the PM, once team members move into double digits (i.e. >=10), and multiple layers, then formal project processes are required to manage reliably and successfully.? These project processes include schedule management, risk and issue management etc.?

Add in remote or virtual work conditions and the need for formal project processes likely increase further.?

This provides a basis for understanding what capabilities are required for a project to be successful.?

From reacting to issues to managing issues to managing risks?

Another frame of reference that can be useful to help assess a project is where they are on the risk and issue management continuum.???

Issues are based on the past or present.? If issues are being managed after or as they arrive and almost as a backlog, then the project could be considered to be managing the past or trying to catch up to the present.? That’s not a great position to be in.?

If issues are being considered, prioritised, and dealt with as they arrive, then that is a better sign.? A sign that a project is managing the present well and is not carrying a backlog of problems they are dealing with.?

Risks are effectively potential future issues.? So effective management of risks are aimed at managing the future of the project.? If a project is on top of their issues, and risks are also being prioritized, analysed and managed with effective implementation of mitigations then they are managing the present and the future.?

This is where we always want projects to be.? It is not always possible, but it’s what every project should strive for.? If issues are under control, and risks actively managed, a project is more likely to deliver what is required, on time, and to the required quality to deliver the planned outcomes on the investment (See Ref# 5).??

This can be a useful way of looking at status beyond the Gantt charts and the glossy reports, by assessing the behaviour of issue and risk management.?

Schedule and risks?

There are key things to look for in risks and risk management and schedule and schedule management.? Just having these things is a start, but as covered earlier, this is not the be all and end all of assessing a project, but it will help profile a project.???

Each has a myriad of factors to consider as a rule of thumb that allow rapid assessments.? But I’ll leave that to another time and for those who are more interested in these technicalities.?

Root Causes?

This article has been largely about quickly assessing status, so you can see beyond what some reports may say, however well intentioned.? Assessing status in one thing.? Assessing root cause or root causes is another.? You may get some insights from any rule of thumb assessment, but a root cause analysis, which in most cases will be required to rectify and recover any situation, will require more analysis.?

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References?

1-Simon, H. A. (1957). Models of Man: Social and Rational. Wiley.?

The concept of rules of thumb as an informal way to solve problems without specific calculations has been widely accepted in various fields. A prominent example in decision-making and project management can be found in the work of Herbert Simon, who coined the term "bounded rationality" and emphasized the need for heuristic approaches in complex decision-making.?

2-Ries, E. (2011). The Lean Startup: How Today's Entrepreneurs Use Continuous Innovation to Create Radically Successful Businesses. Crown Publishing.?

The use of heuristic techniques for rapid project assessment is discussed in The Lean Startup, where Eric Ries emphasizes that rapid assessment and pivoting without full formalization can sometimes better serve project outcomes, especially in fast-changing environments.?

3-Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185(4157), 1124-1131.?

Kahneman and Tversky’s groundbreaking research on heuristics demonstrates the limitations and potential biases that come with relying on such shortcuts, including overconfidence and failure to fully consider all variables.?

4-Bernstein, E., & Waber, B. (2020). The Truth About Open Offices. Harvard Business Review, March-April.?

A study on the impact of remote work on team communication published in Harvard Business Review highlights the loss of informal knowledge sharing in remote settings, similar to what is mentioned in the document. It suggests that while formal meetings increase, informal knowledge-sharing opportunities shrink, affecting team dynamics and project outcomes.?

5-Project Management Institute. (2021). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK? Guide)–Seventh Edition. Project Management Institute.?

Risk management practices in project management emphasize the continuum from reactive to proactive risk management. PMBOK (Project Management Body of Knowledge) highlights how proactive risk management can prevent issues from escalating, improving project success rates.?

6-Brooks, F. P. (1975). The Mythical Man-Month: Essays on Software Engineering. Addison-Wesley.?

Brooks' Law, derived from Fred Brooks' The Mythical Man-Month, outlines how adding more team members to a project, especially late in development, can complicate communication and slow down project progress rather than speeding it up.?

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