Digital Disaster Management: How algorithms, artificial intelligence, and cell broadcast can save us

Here in Germany, there was and still is a lot of room for criticism following the recent floods: Centralized weather service warnings about localized, severe storms went largely ignored. The automatic warning systems, including warning apps such as NINA and KATWARN, weren’t functional, and if they were, only to a very limited extent, failing to fulfill their purpose. Technical and digital infrastructures that should have helped manage the aftermath failed as a result of the floods. The list of failures goes on, but I’m not interested in pointing fingers.

I’d much rather look ahead because, due to climate change, we will have to deal with more and deadlier catastrophes. The best response is preparation – taking precautions and having foresight. Der Spiegel recently quoted an entrepreneur who survived the 2013 flood disaster in Passau, capturing the spirit of these disasters:

“The flood gave us the chance to start over.”

Cell broadcast as a precautionary measure

As co-founder and managing director of diconium, I have been accompanying other companies and brands through the entire digital transformation process since 1995. That’s why I’m excited about ideas that incorporate modern technologies, and, at the moment, there are several of these:

For example, immediately after the disaster, the cell broadcast came up in discussion. Mobile network providers use it to push information, including warning messages, to all mobile devices logged into certain cells. Cell broadcast is nothing new; it has existed for years and is anchored in all mobile communication standards, including 4G and 5G. It’s secure and robust, so it can handle disasters. The simplest lesson to be taken away from the floods and the inadequate communication infrastructure is that we are introducing the cell broadcast in Germany as an information tool for disasters. We are jumping over the technical hurdles and possible data protection issues, and we’re doing so proactively, so we won’t be kicking ourselves later during the next disaster for not having implemented it. (Image Source: Simone Hogan / Shutterstock.com)

Back in 2018, the online magazine Golem.de reported that Google wanted to advertise in public spaces. At the time, the German Federal Office for Public Protection and Disaster Aid had announced that it wanted to use these digital billboards for warning and prevention messages as well. Unfortunately, there are no indications as to whether this helpful public-private partnership has become a reality. That is not enough for proper disaster management. We need to introduce appropriate tools now, so we are ready for the next disaster. After a catastrophe, I don’t want to have to, once again, criticize what we failed to accomplish before. We have the knowledge, we have the technology, we have identified the obstacles. There’s no excuse for failing again.

Better forecasts thanks to AI

And, of course, artificial intelligence can also help in disaster management. This starts with supporting weather forecasts, which are elaborately mapped out in complex models. Algorithms can help by making valid predictions with a limited amount of data. The computing power of the cloud can be useful here, and the next generation of quantum computers will push the simulation of extreme weather events even further. But we can already start planning with that in mind.

Algorithms help to better assess damages and, through targeted precautionary measures, limit them before they even arise. Here’s an example: The German Insurance Association’s flood check uses valid data to determine the risk of flood-related damage to buildings and other property. Even if the recent flood, as WirtschaftsWoche writes, has already overtaken a lot of the data, the precautionary approach is still correct. Many are discussing whether everyone should insure their home against natural disasters. But anyone whose building is in a risk zone should consider it. Artificial intelligence can help if valid data is available.

Excursus: Digital warning systems in Asia and India

A fascinating article in the Handelsblatt recently summarized what technological innovations are being used in Asia in the event of a disaster. Indonesia, for example, relies on the “disaster bot”, an AI-powered innovation that scours social media for reports of flooding and automatically alerts those who may be affected – also sending a request for detailed reports. As a result, maps of affected regions are generated “within minutes”, showing, much faster and more accurately than official reports, where the damage is greatest and help is needed most. Considering the limited warning systems in Germany, I think it is a wonderful idea to proceed in this direction.

Google is providing support in India and Bangladesh, and, of course, AI is playing an important role here as well. Here, models are used to create flood forecasts based on historical data. Additionally, Google has announced that it has been possible to not only double the advance warning time, allowing more people to evacuate acutely endangered areas, but also estimate the severity of expected floods more accurately.

One thing is needed above all in Germany: the courage to address digitalization

From my experience in accompanying many companies and institutions in their digital transformations, I know that we need structures for all these projects and ideas, a culture embracing change, and the courage to tackle these changes.

“We need a digitalization offensive and an up-to-date overview of the situation,”

said Albrecht Broemme, Chairperson of the Board of the Future Forum for Public Safety (ZOES), in an interview with Der Spiegel. I strongly agree with him. Digitalization is not the only step in disaster management, but it is a crucial one. We are now faced with the task of proactively advancing digitalization.