Digest of Economy & Markets, International Support, Politics & Culture
Markus CIUPEK
Dr.-Ing. | ?? ????Entrepreneur & Investor Empowering Manufacturing in Ukraine ???? | Co-Owner, Time & Space Ukraine | Mentor & Resilience Expert | Public Speaker | Author | Connecting ????????????Businesses
Welcome to our 16th edition of "Ukraine Through My Eyes"
Thank you for your continued interest in our newsletter and your invaluable feedback.
This week, in our "Topic of the Week" section, Tetiana Babych, PhD will dive into the reforms aimed at easing the business ecosystem in Ukraine, focusing on the eDozvil initiative and deregulation efforts to support entrepreneurs during martial law.
In this issue, we have compiled 17 topics that we believe will capture our audience's interest:
Economy and Markets
Local Development and Recovery
International Support
Politics
Culture
Please enjoy this edition! Your feedback is invaluable to us. We look forward to hearing your thoughts and suggestions.
Wishing everyone a safe and peaceful start to the new week!
Слава Укра?н? - Разом сильн?ш? - до перемоги!
??? Yours sincerely, Markus Ciupek
Business Ecosystem: eDozvil and Deregulation as Part of the Reform for Entrepreneurs
Ukraine is building a country that is convenient for entrepreneurs. During the martial law period, the Ministry of Economy launched a crucial initiative allowing businesses to declare the beginning of specific activities instead of acquiring licenses and permissions, which are often exorbitant. This reform significantly helps Ukrainian businesses during the war, addressing the long-standing issue of an overregulated licensing system. A specialized interdepartmental panel analysis of the Ukrainian regulatory framework recommended that 34% of the 1,323 regulatory actions be canceled, and another 44% be streamlined.
It is vital for the government and licensing authorities to enact the appropriate by-laws within two months and publish the lists of declarations within 15 days. Such forward-thinking innovations should be safeguarded even during peacetime.
eDozvil is set to make business operations easier. Currently, paper books or Excel tables record a significant portion of licenses and permits, causing inconvenience. The new method will save entrepreneurs time and reduce the likelihood of corruption. Now, entrepreneurs won't need to stand in lines to submit requests and wait weeks for answers to receive data on licenses or permits.
Details:
Last week, the Verkhovna Rada supported Government Bill No. 7331, which transfers permits and licenses to a declarative principle. To start a business, it is enough to declare the relevant activity for free.
How it works:
Exemptions: The declarative principle does not apply if the activity can lead to:
Earlier this year, the government launched the "eDozvil" system for businesses, available within the comprehensive "e-Entrepreneur" service on the "Diia" portal. The system automatically checks documents uploaded by the user using a special algorithm. If the risk level is low, registration is automatic. If a risk is found, a state representative reviews the application and responds within 10 days.
With eDozvil, entrepreneurs will be able to:
According to the Law of Ukraine "On Licensing of Economic Activities Types," these areas cover 34 types of economic activity:
The grain market is experiencing a unique situation: the prices of rapeseed and wheat are growing and almost exceed global prices.
Wheat and rapeseed are in greater demand among traders. Ivan Dimov, the founder of DMV Group, stated that domestic pricing for these crops is nearly equal to or higher than those on the global market.
Because traders must fulfill obligations while ships are waiting, they must either purchase grain at a loss or hope that its price will increase. Most of these traders are global corporations. Since the currency rate rose by more than a hryvnia in the last week, inflation is also impacting the situation. This has led to an anomaly: normally, the price of grain drops during harvest and, consequently, for large quantities of grain; however, this time, the opposite is true, the speaker said.
Farmers are holding back on sales as a result of this circumstance, forcing dealers to increase their offers. Rapeseed costs a little more than ?23,000 per tonne right now ($550 with VAT). The price is outrageous when transshipment, logistics, and production pricing in Germany are taken into account. With wheat, it's a similar story. The price is rising in Ukraine but declining globally—it has recently decreased by $30 to $40.
Source: UBN, 23/07/2024
Ukraine Needs an Additional 4.5 Million Workers for Its GDP to Grow by 7%
One of the most important variables influencing the economy today and in the future will be the dynamics of its growth is Ukraine's demographic situation, namely the availability of labor resources. The war, internal migration, and the exodus of Ukrainians abroad have all contributed to the state's manpower scarcity and structural unemployment.
The formal labor market in 2021 had 11.5 million workers, according to the Ministry of Economy. This number dropped to nine million officially employed people in 2023.
Preliminary calculations show that Ukraine needs 4.5 million additional workers to ensure an annual GDP growth of 7% until 2030. To address the issue of structural unemployment, the state is also assisting individuals in adjusting to shifts in the demand for labor. This includes providing training programs and advanced training courses that enable individuals to acquire new skills that are in demand in the market.
To enhance the state of the labor market, the Ukrainian government is now updating its labor laws.
Source: UBN, 24/07/2024
The National Bank Has Simplified Access for Foreign Investors to Finance Ukraine's Reconstruction
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has approved amendments to the Regulation on Depository and Clearing Activity and Settlement of Securities Transactions by the National Bank of Ukraine, allowing foreign investors direct access to market debt instruments (excluding government securities) for rebuilding Ukraine.
Starting July 24, 2024, the NBU will be able to open accounts for foreign financial institutions and depositories that comply with Ukrainian legislation.
This will attract foreign investment in the recovery of the country through local loan bonds, infrastructure bonds, and other debt instruments.
The changes will also facilitate the implementation of plans to expand cooperation with the international depository Clearstream Banking Luxembourg.
Source: NBU, 23/07/2024
Ukraine Rose to 13th Place in Iron Production and 21st in Steel Production Rankings
Ukraine smelted 3.47 million tons of iron and 3.87 million tons of steel in the first half of 2024, marking an increase from the previous year, according to Worldsteel data and UNN reports.
The world's metallurgical enterprises produced 704.01 million tons of pig iron in January-June 2024, a 1.79% decrease from the same period in 2023. China produced the largest amount, with its metallurgists producing 435.62 million tons, down 3.60% from 451.89 million tons. Ukraine moved up from 14th to 13th position among 40 pig iron-producing countries.
Global steel production in January-June 2024 was 954.62 million tons, a 0.01% decrease from the same period in 2023. China's share in global steel production is 55.6%. Ukraine smelted 3.87 million tons of steel, up 136.96% compared to January-June 2023. In April, Ukrainian metallurgical enterprises increased iron production by 25%, steel by 33%, and rolled products by 30.5% compared to the same period last year.
Source: UBN, 23/07/2024
Boeing and Antonov Signed a Preliminary Agreement to Cooperate in Drone Production
Boeing Corporation and the Ukrainian company Antonov have signed a preliminary joint work agreement for the production of unmanned systems to support Ukraine's defense industry. The agreement covers training, logistical support, and maintenance of drones like Boeing's ScanEagle.
“We are happy to continue cooperating with the Antonov company to support Ukraine’s development and economic growth,” said the American leader in the global aerospace industry.
Antonov CEO Yevhen Gavrylov said the agreement opens up new opportunities for implementing the latest solutions and the possibility of future projects with Boeing in the aerospace and defense industry.
Additionally, Antonov will cooperate with the French company Turgis & Gaillard to produce the Aarok MALE combat drone at its facilities.
Source: UBN, 24/07/2024
The NBU Updated Its Forecast for Key Indicators in the Ukrainian Economy
Ukraine's GDP is expected to rise by 3.7% in 2024, according to the NBU (the April prediction was 3%). The first half of the year saw continuous economic development, but subsequent months have seen a slowdown because of Russia's extensive attacks on the energy industry. Nonetheless, companies in Ukraine have adjusted to the regular electricity shortages.
Additionally, the NBU revised downward its April prediction of an 8.2% rise in consumer prices to 8.5% in 2024. Inflation is predicted to be 5.0% in 2026 and 6.6% in 2025. Inflation started to rise again in May after a protracted drop, and in June it accelerated to 4.8% annually.
A decline in foreign currency exchange and a rise in demand for foreign currency are reported to be responsible for the recent increase in the dollar-hryvnia exchange rate. However, after reaching a peak, the dollar declined for the fourth day in a row. As of July 26, the official currency rate is 41.1977 hryvnias to the dollar.
Source: UBN, 26/07/2024
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The Ministry of Energy is Rushing to Restore Energy Production Capacity
Ukrainian Minister of Energy German Galushchenko has announced that the country's energy repair campaign for 2024 will be larger than last year, aiming to restore 3.3 GW of destroyed generation. The campaign is working around the clock, focusing on infrastructure repair, distributed generation development, backup power generator provision, and energy infrastructure protection.
The average energy deficit is currently around three GW, with a volume of over six GW if all current needs and the heating season are summed up.
However, the power system's situation has improved due to lower consumption from more moderate temperatures and increased electricity production at solar power plants. Most of Ukraine's consumption is supplied through nuclear energy.
Source: UBN, 26/07/2024
Most Ukrainians Have Not Adapted to Life Abroad and Plan to Return Home
The majority of Ukrainians who left the country due to the war—64 percent of them—have not settled into their new nations, and many of them plan to go back to their own country. It is evident that the adaptation factor affects Ukrainians who plan to go back home: 55% of respondents made this observation. Sixty-two percent of those who want to return to Ukraine are unsure of the precise date they will return.
The Ukrainians who are most ready to return are those who work remotely for Ukrainian enterprises (70%) and those who are temporarily unemployed (68%). At least 60% of respondents said they feel comfortable personally in other countries, and an even greater percentage (65%) said they feel at ease about the safety of their kids, which is a major deterrent for them from going back.
Forty-one percent of respondents cite guaranteed permanent jobs as the primary motivation for returning, 36% say financial support in Ukraine is necessary for their return, and 33% mention the prospect of finding or arranging homes in safe areas of Ukraine. Twenty-seven percent of those surveyed said they would be prepared to go back if Ukraine's air defense is improved.
Source: UBN, 26/07/2024
Uzhgorod Has Become the Most Expensive Ukrainian City in Terms of Housing Rent
Ukraine's real estate portal "LUN" has reported that Uzhgorod is currently the most expensive city in terms of housing rent in the country, followed by Lviv and Kyiv. A one-room apartment in Uzhgorod costs an average of UAH 17,700 per month.
The average cost of renting a one-room apartment in Lviv is UAH 16,500 per month, while in Kyiv it is UAH 15,000 per month.
Chernivtsi is the fourth most expensive city, with an average rent of UAH 12,300 per month. Other cities with lower prices include Ivano-Frankivsk, Kropyvnytskyi, Poltava, Rivne, Cherkasy, Khmelnytskyi, and Ternopil. Odesa, which was once the most expensive city for rent, now ranks 14th with UAH 7,000 per month.
Low prices were observed in cities near front-line areas and those affected by military actions, such as Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson.
Source: LUN, 26/07/2024
Rheinmetall Received an Order from the Government of Ukraine to Build an Ammunition Plant
Rheinmetall has been awarded an order by the Ukrainian government to construct a factory for ammunition production in Ukraine. The order covers the entire technical equipment up to commissioning, with a total value estimated to be in the three-digit million euro range. The project is expected to begin in the third quarter of 2024 and be completed within several years.
Rheinmetall plans to start ammunition production in Ukraine within 24 months and will operate the plant with its Ukrainian joint venture partner.
In June, Rheinmetall AG CEO Armin Papperger and Ukraine's Minister of Strategic Industries Oleksandr Kamyshin signed an agreement on expanding strategic cooperation during the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Berlin. The company has also opened an armored tank plant in Western Ukraine, managed by a joint venture between Rheinmetall and the Ukrainian Defense Industry. Rheinmetall's first Lynx infantry fighting vehicle is due to be delivered to the Ukrainian armed forces by the end of this year, with local production to begin as soon as possible.
Source: Rheinmetall site, 24/07/2024
Ukraine and Japan Signed a Document to Support Investment Projects, and 14 Japanese Companies Are Ready to Invest in the Ukrainian Economy
The "Protocol of Discussions on the Project of Strengthening the Involvement of the Private Sector for the Reconstruction of Ukraine" was signed by Japan and Ukraine. The agreement calls for the growth of Ukraine's private sector and its industrial policy tools, as well as the provision of support by the Japanese International Cooperation Agency (JICA) for pilot investment projects carried out by Japanese companies in Ukraine. It is anticipated that proposals for more intensive courting of Japanese corporations to invest would be included. According to JICA, 14 Japanese businesses are prepared to consider making investments in the Ukrainian economy.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Economy emphasized that this document should lead to Japanese companies investing in Ukraine, financing the supply of Japanese equipment for joint projects, and providing expert assistance from JICA to make the country's private sector more appealing to investors. It should also attract investment from Japanese companies.
Source: UBN, 26/07/2024
The EU Transfers 1.5 Billion Euros from the Profit from Frozen Russian Assets to Ukraine
This was disclosed by Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, on the social network X (previously Twitter).
The proceeds will be used to assist military requirements and the recovery of Ukraine through the European Peace Fund (which will receive 90% of the funds) and the Ukraine Facility (10%).
According to the European Commission document, this guidance ensures that the funds are not given directly to Ukraine, but rather are used for improving military capability and reconstruction in compliance with the principles of sound financial management.
In June, the EU agreed to use part of the profits from frozen Russian assets for military aid to Ukraine. EUR 1.5 billion is the first part of these funds.
Source: Ursula von der Leyen, X, 26/07/2024
Ukraine Agreed on the Restructuring of External Debt
Ukraine has reached principled agreements with the Committee of Eurobond Owners of Ukraine to restructure sovereign debt securities issued on international capital markets. The agreement will allow existing Eurobonds to be exchanged for new Eurobonds, resulting in a 37% nominal reduction in the debt's value at the initial stage and a reduction in the net present value of the debt by around 60%.
The maturity of the Eurobonds will be extended, with the first repayment of USD 1.172 billion in 2029. New Eurobonds will be issued, with four series of Bonds A maturing in 2029, 2034, 2035, and 2036, and four series of Bonds B maturing in 2030, 2034, 2035, and 2036.
The agreements are supported by the Committee of Creditors of Ukraine and correspond to the target indicators of the IMF Extended Financing Mechanism program, which aims to achieve an 82% debt-to-GDP ratio by the end of 2028 and a 65% debt-to-GDP ratio by the end of 2033. Ukraine plans to implement the restructuring agreement as soon as possible, provided the necessary documentation is prepared.
Source: The Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, 22/07/2024
Electronic Booking through Diia: Over 55,000 Employees Booked in a Week
The Ministry of Economy and the Ministry of Digital Transformation in Ukraine have introduced electronic booking for employees, with 55,000 employees booked so far. The Diia portal allows users to book an employee, with an average booking time of 15 minutes. The system has shown significant demand, with 15,000 people booking on the first day alone. It is particularly beneficial for critical enterprises and those working for the Security and Defense Forces, as it reduces waiting times to 15 minutes.
The reservation algorithm on the Diia portal involves ministries, OVA, and other executive power bodies entering into the Unified List of Enterprises, Institutions, and Organizations that can book employees. The head of the company submits reservation lists on the Diia portal and certifies the application with an electronic signature. The system automatically checks if a person is officially employed and if their data is in the Register of Safeguards. If positive, the system transfers the conscript to a special military account for the duration of the reservation, making them considered booked.
Both online and paper formats are available for booking documents. Two reservation mechanisms operate simultaneously: through the Diia portal and according to lists approved by the Ministry of Defense and accepted by the Ministry of Economy. The company independently determines the mechanism for booking employees. The system's operation is continuously improving, and enterprises are added to the Unified List of Critically Important Enterprises.
Source: The Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, 24/07/2024
Kuleba and Wang Yi Held Three-Hour Negotiations in China
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi held three-hour negotiations in Guangzhou.
Kuleba expressed his expectation of thorough and substantive discussions on bilateral relations, the international agenda, and the path to peace. He emphasized that a just peace in Ukraine aligns with China's strategic interests and its role as a global peace force. The main topic of the negotiations was exploring ways to stop Russia's aggression and China's possible role in establishing a stable peace.
Kuleba stressed that Russian aggression has destroyed peace and hindered development, with each new day of war bringing further violations of humanity and erosion of justice. He explained the logic of further steps in the implementation of the Peace Formula as a means to end Russian aggression. He stated that Ukraine is ready to conduct negotiations with Russia at a certain stage when Russia is prepared to negotiate in good faith.
This is the first visit by the head of the Foreign Ministry of Ukraine to China since the beginning of the full-scale invasion by Russia and the first full-fledged visit since 2012.
Source: Reuters, 25/07/2024
Ukraine Among 90 WTO Member Countries to Agree on E-Commerce Rules
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has reached an agreement with over 90 member countries on rules governing global digital trade, including the recognition of electronic signatures and protection against online fraud. E-commerce accounts for about 25% of all international trade and is growing at a faster rate than traditional commerce. The agreement could become the basis of global digital trade rules once integrated into the WTO legal framework. European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis believes the agreement will facilitate electronic transactions, drive innovation, and integrate developing countries into the digital economy.
The agreement is expected to benefit both consumers and businesses by simplifying cross-border electronic transactions, lowering barriers to digital trade, and promoting innovation in e-commerce. It also provides for the digitalization of customs documents and processes, reducing the need for businesses to physically sign contracts and send them worldwide. Additionally, the agreement obliges signatories to take legal measures to protect against Internet fraud.
The parties to the agreement can make it an official WTO agreement, but this will require consensus among all member countries. The United States considers the new text an "important step forward" but notes that it is still imperfect and requires additional work. The main trend of electronic sales is the integration of commerce into daily life, with the implementation of artificial intelligence in e-commerce, simplification of online payments, and social commerce being among the ways to implement this trend.
Source: European Commission, 26/07/2024
Portraits of Veterans Decorate the Shop Windows of the Central Shopping Centre Kyiv
The TSUM Kyiv department store has displayed portraits of veterans who have returned to civilian life after severe injuries and trials.
The project, initiated by PUMB and the Kyiv Medical Center, tells the stories of heroes through the lens of photographer Kostyantyn Liberov. Each photo tells a personal story about a Ukrainian soldier's path to a fulfilling life after returning from the war. The heroes include Vladimir Yeschenko, founder of the "We Will See Victory" charity foundation, Sergeii Khrapko, Hleb Stryzhko, Anastasia Savka, and Giorgii Raskalei.
The initiative is part of the larger "Live Towards" veterans' integration platform initiated by PUMB, which aims to support veterans in their return to civilian life.
The photos will be on display in the store window until August 15.
Source: Basilik, 25/07/2024
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7 个月Markus, your dedication to sharing diverse and critical insights about Ukraine through your newsletter "Ukraine Through My Eyes" is both enlightening and commendable. By covering a range of topics from economic developments to cultural highlights, you are providing a comprehensive view that not only informs but also connects your readers to the ongoing transformations in Ukraine. Your commitment to incorporating feedback and adapting content shows a genuine engagement with your audience, enhancing the overall impact and relevance of your information. Keep up the great work in fostering a well-informed community and promoting a deeper understanding of Ukraine's dynamic landscape.