DIFFUSION OF INNOVATION THEORY AND ITS INFLUENCE ON US

Diffusion of Innovation theory (I would prefer it as Law of Diffusion) is the terminology you would come across while scavenging the topics of marketing or strategy or project management. It has great application in the field of behavioral science. Now many would wonder what it is, here you go.

The theory was invented by Professor Everett Rogers in 1962 in his book ‘Diffusion of Innovations’. It explains how, why and at what rate new ideas and technology spread. It is indeed a beautiful theory yet complex to understand because it explains various things like innovation, communication channels, time and social system, etc. From his theory, I wish to steal a minuscule yet very critical part i.e. the theory of adopters.

It says adaptability of any innovative thought, the idea follows across people who can then be categorized as Innovators, Early Adopters, Early Majority, Later Majority and Laggards, shown under blue color bell curve area.

• Let me decipher a part of this theory, it takes courage, daring, confidence, social status, financial freedom, motivation, and significant risk appetite to be in the category of Innovators. Didn’t get a clue? let me try again, many would’ve ridiculed the idea of people creating computers or idea of iPhone or Android Phones or even Mobile Phones but innovators/creators of it took the daring as they believed in the transformation, this can bring to the world we live in. They are hardly 2.5% people who believe in any technology or idea do the daring to make it reality. These are those 2.5% people who have great tenacity for finding the answer to WHY they exist and exploring WHY they do WHAT they do. These are those people who remain steadfast to their beliefs, ideology no matter what.
• Empirically those 2.5% people try convincing others in their ideas and those who can associate themselves with their WHY, become Early Adopters. These are those people who purchase Apple iPhone costing more than a lakh after standing in queues for days/weeks. These are those people who join any campaign be it political, marketing or propagation of ideology, belief. These are those people who truly believe in the WHY of Innovators and by supporting such product, services, idea or belief they feel they are resolving their own WHY.
• The only job of these innovators and efforts and resources they deploy is to create Early Adopters. These are the people who resemble the belief which innovators follow and believe in the resolve of Why innovators took and become steadfast supporting them. These amount to 13.5% of total adopters. Once these early adopters become the proponents/advocates of the idea, belief, product and services, the growth trajectory achieves a point of inflection, thereafter it achieves a mass acceptance.
• Subsequent to Early Adopters are Early Majority which resembles 34% of the total population. These are the people who initially have inhibitions and wish to see someone testing the product, experiencing the idea first before adopting it. They are not the people who derive inspiration from innovators but unconsciously influenced by 13.5% people, even though they don’t admit but they are those who follow those 13.5% people as their inspiration. It is this category of the early majority which makes a success of an idea, belief, product, services or even an ideology.
• Once the total admissibility exceeds a cumulative 50%, any idea, belief, product or services is ought to be adopted by another 34% people who are classified as Late Majority. These are the category who derive inspiration from the early majority and find every opportunity to change in the early majority for a new idea if the idea is pervasive, ubiquitous.
• Post such category is the Laggards who are predominantly those people who were cynical to the very first introduction of the idea, belief, product, services or even ideology. They try finding a counter to it but repeatedly fails to do so and slowly and steadily acquiesce to the idea, thought, product or service.

You must have observed another yellow curve which indicates the contribution of these early adopters, early majority and late majority contributing towards the market capitalization of product, services, idea or belief.

Many curious minds would be thinking of why they are reading this theory. To answer those, because it has great bearing on our lives and we can use the same design your professional career, personal belief, etc.

I am obsessed with my alma mater and my brethren alumni (viz., Malaviyans). It is unusual for an engineering college, deprived of resources, quality education to a large extent, inadequate professional grooming infrastructure, and even slacker placement efforts to witness such a closely connected alumni base. Though I must admit, things have not only changed but transformed in past one decade for the better and further glorifying with promising leadership of new VC Shri SN Singh. We follow a close bond and easily associate ourselves with Malaviyan Bonding and Belief. If the Malaviyan Jayate is an idea, belief, thought or whatever you name it, how the law of diffusion innovation applies to it.

As per piecemeal information available, it was in the early 90s when few Malaviyans (Innovators) joined hand with a dream to connect with others. It must have been a challenge and would’ve required perseverance, patience, and resources to connect and convince others to come to meet together with their families one specific day, unlike today’s world wherein we are virtually connected to each and every one. I truly believe in below

Technology is extremely fantastic for speedy exchange of information, speeding transactions and wonderful in finding people, aggregating resources, however, it is terrible when it comes to creating human trust among Humans. Human trust can never be created unless we meet, know each other and bond with each other.

This is the primary reason why the idea of different alumni groups based on location, common field of interests, ideology or batch or a mix of the batch was initiated. We know each other and can identify each other with a single thread of being malaviyan, however, to scale it up to the next level, human trust is must to be developed. The thrust and pushing each malaviyan to meet other whenever they find time is mandated to create such human trust which in turn will help realize the greater goal of making our fraternity the most inclusive, engaged and connected fraternity across the globe. My dream of Malaviyan Jayate will achieve fruition when we develop greater human trust as never experienced earlier. Of course in this larger goal, there would be few setbacks and will take time, however, remember Rome wasn’t built in a day and without opposition from different stakeholders. Different alumni chapters, seeing malaviyans meeting across the globe and sharing their pictures are nothing but the vindication of the fact that we are heading towards the point of inflection and perseverance will soon help to influence the early majority to adopt it and subsequent will also join this ideology of Malaviayan Jayate.

One must be thinking the article is all about the glorification of a fraternity, so let’s switch it over to a political example, which many ones can identify with as everyone is politically agile and vigilant.

I consider the best example is of BJP who transformed themselves in their political journey. I feel the diffusion of innovation theory applies there as well. Even though I can’t analyze the structure and how they evolved and transformed but can briefly analyze from my limited understanding. The strategic core inside BJP truly believed that to revamp and transform, they must need an idea, thought or ideology and to push that ideology there is need of early adopters and expeditiously achieve the point of inflection. New Innovators bring in the perspective of WHY the Change and echoed it in such manner that it wouldn’t look their own Why but the Why for masses. Thereafter I guess cadre restructuring was done to include fresh generation who were further influenced through training, empathy, perspective and start believing in the WHY of such innovators. Have you ever thought even after a magnanimous win, why BJP conducts membership exercise at all levels and who does it? It is actually those early adopters so that they can give a market capitalization signal to the early majority to join the party. One must have observed the increased voting share in the recent election, slowly and steadily the changing thinking of masses even the late majority. This is the theory of diffusion of innovation put into practice that will encourage the late majority to get influenced by the early majority and will push even the laggard to join the belief and ideology of BJP sooner or later. One may have observed the grudges even in cadre for no support from innovators however, they remain steadfast to the ideology, this is because of the fact that once the point of inflection is achieved, it is the influence of early adopters and social pressure, which makes an early majority and subsequent to join. The growing presence of BJP is the vindication of their increasing presence across the country. Another thing admirable with their strategic thinkers are constant innovating acts on a periodic basis which enforces the belief of early adopters and in turn everyone in adoption category and this will ensure sustainable majority and market capitalization of them.

Now consider the example of Solar infusion and the policy thinking behind the ubiquitous presence of solar these days in every nooks and corner of the country. Law of Diffusion of Innovation can be used in policy design as well.

Solar in the country is not a new phenomenon, it started since long in early 2004-05, however, let’s say tag the solar inception with National Solar Mission, a policy initiative under NAPCC which started in 2008. In policy design, the magnanimous incentive structure, sometime ignorance on technical aspect, safety and quality aspect helps in creating the early adopters which after achieving the point of inflexion, encourages and influences early majority to join and coerces subsequently to late majority to join and later on laggards don’t have the option to join irrespective of their cynical or resistance to join the league. Policy design very astutely withdraws the incentive and start decreasing support after point of inflection because thereafter the early majority and subsequent joins the drive because of the influence and social pressure not because of benefits underlying in it.

Another practical example I can quote of a friend who started a business of organic foods, he was an innovator for his category and it must have required great courage, mental struggle, and belief in this new venture that he left a successful lifestyle and adopted it. It took a great effort and resources to create early adopters, however, now his perseverance started paying off in form of reaching the inflection point after which he will gain the early majority and start gaining the market capitalization.

Hope the concept help you identifying the analogy in activities you observe or design your strategies accordingly.

Disclaimer: This post shall be viewed solely as the viewpoint of the author and has nothing to do with the viewpoint/suggestion of present or past organization with which the author has been associated. The post is intended for the purpose of knowledge dissemination only and not to derive commercial gains.