Did the stock market hit bottom? What does AI + crowd intelligence predict?
Peter H. Diamandis
Data-driven optimist inspiring entrepreneurs through research, investment & community to create an abundant future for humanity | M.D. | Futurist | Speaker | Podcast Host | 4x NY Times Best-Selling Author
When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) hit its lowest point amidst the COVID-19 pandemic?
Has that happened already? Or is it likely to occur in the weeks and months ahead?
Participate in the FutureLoop Prediction Engine "Challenge #2" to see what a combination of “Wisdom of the Crowd” and Machine Learning predict.
Challenge #2: "What will be the lowest point reached by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) between now & July 31, 2020?"
"Wisdom of the Crowd” is a process by which a large enough group of sufficiently knowledgeable people are able to make a reasonably accurate prediction on a future outcome. Whether in predicting election outcomes, economic trends, sports results, or even terrorist activity, crowdsourced wisdom has time and again matched or (often) outperformed expert predictions.
Starting in the early 2010s, a project sponsored by the U.S. Director of National Intelligence — the Good Judgment Project — demonstrated that 3,000 moderately informed minds could together outperform even the top foreign policy experts or CIA analysts on questions ranging from Turkey’s adoption of a new constitution, to U.S.-E.U. trade deals.
“We just needed lots of people; we had very few restrictions [...] We wanted people who were interested, and curious, who were moderately well-educated and at least aware enough of the world around them that they listened to the news,” explained UC Berkeley associate professor Don Moore, who co-led the project.
According to one report, when ‘super-predictors’ (crowdsourced individuals who are correct most often) are grouped in teams, these smaller ‘crowds’ can outperform agents with access to classified information by up to 30 percent.
So, welcome to FutureLoop, a platform that combines Machine Learning driven news aggregation, along with “Wisdom of the Crowd Polling” to help us get answers to important questions.
Challenge #1: "What is the earliest date that the FDA will approve the first COVID-19 Vaccine?"
Challenge #2: "What will be the lowest point reached by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) between now & July 31, 2020?”
Click on the question to answer and participate!
R&D Team Lead | AI/ML and Big Data | Generated millions in revenue for enterprises with ML/DS/DE
4 年No. Look at the virus
Principal Category Manager | Microsoft Cloud & AI
4 年Looks to be an error in the default response (2008).
Deep Tech for Human Health & Performance ◆ Open Strategy-Execution ◆ Demand-Side Innovation ◆ Translational Research
4 年Crowd fantasy is not crowd intelligence. Seriously? Stock markets have no prognostic value. They are simply taking the "temperature" of short-term stakeholders. When has the long-term behavior of stock markets ever been predicted by short-term trends and variability? AI will simply amplify the folly.