Did this really just happen?

Over the past seven years, Ecuador has experienced unprecedented changes politically, socially, and in terms of increased and consistently more violent crime. The reasons are many, too many to deal with in this short article, enough to say much work is needed and most of it will be contentious and have the population divided. Judicial strengthening, enforcement and reinforcement on one hand, and on the other increased social reform.

There is much emotion currently circulating in the small South American country that is Ecuador, concerning the revelation that most countrymen and women are waking up to this morning. Their new President, Daniel Noboa ordered armed Police and Military units to breach the outer and inner security of the Mexican embassy in Quito and detain a convicted fugitive who was sheltered within.

This is a breach of various international laws, conventions, and diplomatic agreements that guarantee the sovereignty of all embassies, worldwide. There are reasons why these agreements are in place and there are reasons why the sanctions against those who dare break such agreements are considered harsh. So harsh in fact that until now only Iran has been subjected to them!

I wonder then what sanctions if any the international community will place on Ecuador??

Should you be able to forcefully infringe on a sovereign nation to enforce the laws of another sovereign nation, even when all conventions say that basic political collaboration would suggest not? And, if the answer is to be yes then where would this stop??

When would it become an abuse of power or indeed a criminal act? Will diplomacy become nothing more than a publicity stunt, forever at the whims and behest of whoever should choose to ignore them??

Are we to have no Internationally recognized treaties, that all can agree on? After all, is not our ability to communicate, agree to disagree, and compromise what separates us from all the other creatures?

Do we need to change some international laws, make some new internationally agreed conventions, or completely rethink what is believed and agreed by the majority to be correct, simply because one President or Prime minister believes they are above the beliefs of the rest because one might see domestic political leverage, or indeed feel that their image and ego had been attacked!

It takes only a little stretch of the imagination to think that the newly, elected President, who will have to rescind his power in these coming days to initiate his re-election campaign, just made a mockery of international law and political collaboration, as a play to gain some voters who may have thought his, as yet unspecified, fight against rising crime or, peace plan in the war against international drug dealing cartels and mafias was not going as intended!

So, what is it all about? In December of last year, the ex-vice president of Rafael Correa's government took refuge in the Mexican embassy, after being released from jail, because of what he described as Political Persecution. On Friday, he was finally granted asylum to live as a free man in Mexico adjudicating that his claims were real. Hours later, the Ecuadorian president sent a specialist police unit, with Military support, into the Embassy to capture Jorge Glas and take him into custody. He was transported under heavy guard by airplane to Guayaquil?s maximum security prison, "The Rock", where he is now a resident. A prison whose security rating far exceeds the crimes he is convicted of! A situation not unsimilar to that in which Julian Assange finds himself!!!!

President Daniel Noboa justified the raid and detention of Glas, claiming that Mexico had violated the mission of its embassy to serve as a “diplomatic space” for strengthening relations between countries. “It is not intended to provide refuge to criminals,” he said.

An accusation many may have upheld when a previous Ecuadorian govt. granted asylum, for 7 years in their embassy in London to Julian Assange, the British police nor the government breached international agreements to capture him, out of respect for international conventions. And when they finally went into the embassy to arrest Julian Assange they did under the invitation of the then Ecuadorian President, Lenin Moreno.

Lenin Moreno is currently a fugitive from Ecuadorian justice in Peru. His predecessor Rafael Correo, whom Lenin Moreno, some would argue, sold out, is also a fugitive from justice and resides in Belgium. The last president Guillermo Lasso was impeached for embezzlement and falsifying contracts, and his impeachment is what led to the emergency elections that brought Daniel Naboa to power after the assassination of Fernando Villavicencio seriously damaged the otheer leading candidates' opportunities Daniel Naboa got elected.

“No common criminal can be considered politically persecuted and Jorge Glas has been convicted with an enforceable sentence and faced other charges in pending cases,” Noboa said.

“Having abused the immunities and privileges granted to the Mexican diplomatic mission that housed Jorge Glas, and granted him diplomatic asylum contrary to the conventional legal framework, his arrest has been carried out.”

A day earlier, tensions between the two countries escalated after López Obrador made statements that Ecuador considered “very unfortunate” about the last elections, which the Ecuadorian president, Daniel Noboa, won.

In reaction, the Ecuadorian government declared the Mexican ambassador persona non grata.

To be clear, entering an embassy by force, while a serious breach of international law and diplomatic protocol, typically does not constitute an act of war in and of itself. Embassies are considered sovereign territory of the country they represent, and violating the sanctity of an embassy is a violation of diplomatic norms and can strain international relations.

However, whether such an action would be considered an act of war depends on various factors such as the intent behind forcibly entering an embassy and the context in which it occurs are crucial. If it is a deliberate act of aggression by a foreign state against another sovereign nation, it could potentially lead to a military conflict. Violating the sovereignty of an embassy is a violation of international law, including the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations. States may pursue diplomatic or legal recourse through international bodies such as the United Nations or the International Court of Justice rather than resorting to war.

Then there are the political dynamics between the countries involved, We know that Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador recently referred publically to the assassination of Fernando Villavicencio, during the last election campaign, saying the only political entity that benefitted from the assassination was the current Ecuadorian administration! Meaning that doesn't bode well for a quick resolution to this current incident. Diplomatic efforts, economic sanctions, or other non-military measures may be employed instead of military action, but it appears unlikely that there will be no consequences.

Yes, economic sanctions can be enforced but whether the international community as a whole becomes involved depends on various factors:

Public opinion and media coverage can influence the response of the international community. Widespread condemnation of the violation may put pressure on the offending party to rectify the situation and mitigate the risk of further escalations.

If the violation results in humanitarian consequences, violating the rights of individuals seeking refuge in the embassy, (which in this instance was the sole intention) the international community may respond with diplomatic initiatives to address the situation.

Historically, Mexico and Ecuador have maintained generally positive diplomatic relations, often cooperating on various issues such as trade, immigration, and regional integration within Latin America. Both countries are members of organizations such as the Organization of American States (OAS), the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), and the Pacific Alliance.

Ecuador is a popular destination for Mexican tourists, and there are significant cultural and historical ties between the two countries. Additionally, both nations share common interests in promoting economic development, social progress, and regional stability, and law enforcement. However, it must be stated that Mexico's leftist government worked better with the previous leftist governments of Ecuador.

Daniel Naboa has in many ways breathed new life into what was fast becoming a stale Ecuadorian political climate. He has leaped forward with his desire to instigate reforms and initiatives to fight crime, delinquency, and corruption which have all taken a great toll on an amazing, generally peaceful, and friendly South American Republic.

He has vowed to fight crime and corruption wherever it is found and his fledgling government has opened cases against Police Chiefs, Military leaders, Judges, prosecutors, and lawyers as well as many deeply embedded in the putrid prison services. Something the majority of Ecuadorians desire and support. So for many his taking control of this situation will seem positive but at what cost?

Only time will tell if his reckless regard for international treaties over his conviction and dedication to his own country's "National Security Needs" will pay dividends or cost him dearly. He has many struggles in front of him in the coming months and this was not the best moment to alienate potential allies.

I constantly preach that communication and not confrontation is what gives us security, so it is hard for me to do anything but condemn these recent actions. However, when you need an action man, you cannot condemn him for taking action!

Can you?