Did Nostradamus predict US Cannabis Legalization?

I’m not really one for doing the Nostradamus’ predicted these 1532 things that will happen in the next 365 days kind of person.? But I did hear a rumor once that he predicted cannabis would legalize in the United States sometime……..?? Regardless, let the fact checkers whirl away on that one in the background while we take a quick look at cannabis around the world.

Hitting Q4 and now December 1st of 2021 has got me thinking a lot about my own business plans and what I think is going to most influence Global Cannabis Network Collective (GCNC) members and Gateway Proven Strategies’ clients as they work together to expand well regulated, sustainable and responsible cannabis markets worldwide.? I thought I’d share a few of those thoughts for those who are also trying to navigate the space.? Keep in mind, this is my opinion based on what I’m seeing in markets and talking to GCNC members about.? So, It’s well informed but does not mean there aren’t areas for further elaboration or modification as things develop.??

It can also be a discussion :) Feel free to post your thoughts in the comments.

1. It will be a big year for Europe.? No matter how you slice it, even just the discussion of expanding the legal markets in Germany will drive broader acceptance and enthusiasm for product acceptance and availability in the EU and the UK.? If that discussion becomes reality, it will change the global dynamic in terms of anti-cannabis rhetoric.? It won’t go away but it certainly will shift more positively. ? It also further highlights the future of compliance worldwide will likely be anchored in EU GMP standards.?This was already true in many ways but current trends seem to push this even more strongly. Australia’s trade agreements with the EU also have allowed market players there to create some nice stair steps into cross Europe distribution agreements.
2. While we are unlikely to see big moves in Africa this year, the expanding EU demand is going to put further pressure on the traditional pipelines for commodity and agricultural exports from Africa into the European continent.? There is still a ton to do before that happens including further de-stigmatization in Africa and some self reflection on domestic markets and issues there.? However, history tells us the eventual development of this flow is inevitable.??
3. LATAM will continue to develop strongly.? With ongoing discussions in Colombia about expanding a potential adult use market, Brazil headed towards a broad medicinal use market and Mexico???? We’ll just have to see with Mexico but having spent a lot of time there this year I continue to be optimistic that we’ll see substantial progress in 2022.? Additional countries are also emerging and while individual populations tend to be smaller, the combined totals are creating very sizeable market opportunities with some of our members working to identify how to create domestic and regional micro-economies and trade routes that navigate all the legal and compliance hurdles.? This continental and regional shift gives LATAM the opportunity to become the garden spot of the world for cultivation if they play their cards right and move swiftly.? With the United States basically opting out of global participation, it’s created a unique development in export markets from South America into Europe which is not as much of a traditional flow as the typical south to north routes.? How that affects mid-range plans will be interesting but unless those patterns have quite a long time to settle in, it’s unlikely to become a long term thing for both logistical and cultural reasons.??
4. Asia and the Middle East are still a ways off with a few notable exceptions.? India, which has really always had a relationship with cannabis and hemp, is gaining an increasing amount of attention globally with a number of internationally focused projects occurring and a promising domestic population of 1.3 billion people.? Israel still is doing great things in research and innovation but does have a challenge in getting awareness for all of that great work. So while Israel very arguably has more research based information than anywhere else, there is an ongoing need to push that knowledge and product development outward.? There are definitely some great opportunities for collaboration here provided companies are culturally attuned.
5. Nobody knows really what is going to happen in the United States but a whole lot of people sure like talking about it.? My biggest personal frustration with the US market is not whether it will or won’t move this year.? It’s the huge number of cannabis industry professionals in the country that continue to have blinders on as the rest of the world moves forward.? This is true of Investors, MSO’s and regional operators.? This lack of multi-national awareness will work against the industry as a whole as it develops and leaves US companies open for a really painful surprise whenever it does open and international players start to compete with them.???

The US general population is overwhelmingly in favor of cannabis legalization regardless of political party, the potential tax revenue is proven and there are a lot of great models for safety and regulation throughout the states as well as lessons learned.? A Key thing to remember is that when legalization occurs, a lot of regulation and very very very large players are in the wings already.? So, it’s a mixed bag for a lot of people as to whether or not it’s a good thing.? But, as always, follow the money and the politics.? As long as the extremes of either party feel like this political football can either gain them a few votes or take a few away from someone else, it’s super convenient to take no action and blame it on someone else.? So, could it happen this year?? Sure.? Will it?? I doubt it.? But maybe I’m wrong and it certainly always is part of the business planning.

Conclusion?

So where does that leave me in 2022?? The GCNC membership will be focused in all of these areas but with continental and regional focal points built on where in the market development glide path each region is.? We’ll also be expanding significantly our “connecting cannabis and capital programs.”? While the flame out of a lot of the early Canadian investments scared a lot of capital away, a lot of really smart companies and professionals learned from that, making future investments in the market a better deal for those who understand due diligence is important.? We also are launching some really cool new programs on company valuation, competitive market intelligence along with a “best practices in global cultivation” series which actually launched today, December 2, 2021. ? These issues are what the majority of our members are concerned about.? As a marketer, I’d love to see more discussion around brand development and brand architecture, but that’s a targeted discussion in a few markets where it is already relevant and a somewhat predictive topic for a lot of others. ? Finally, social responsibility and ESG.? There is A LOT of talk from multinational operators about ESG, social responsibility, and equity.? That being said, most of it is talk with nowhere near enough action. Additionally, The concept of conscious capitalism and how a company can be successful in measuring both Return on Investment and Societal Impact(ROI2)is still fighting to beat out more traditional analytics.? But, with global impact investment on the rise and a broader understanding of how cannabis and hemp plays a role in sustainable agriculture, natural medicine and the like; I think we have a brief window of time to create a cannabis economy with ROI squared at the top of the business pyramid.? On the Gateway Proven Strategies side, these types of large scale and thoughtful projects will be the ones we look to work with.???

Best of luck in 2022 to everyone.? We can never predict the exact pathway by which we will all get there, but it is clear that this time next year; the opportunities will only be bigger and for those with a global view, the market opportunities are better.??