Did July’s Jobs Report Really Warrant Market Turmoil?

Monthly Digest: July 2024

?? 1.8% workforce growth rate in July 2024; lower than the growth rate observed in June. The positive workforce growth rate comes amid the declining hiring.

?? 40.4% of workers who started a new job in July transitioned to a new role and 67.8% transitioned to a new industry. Construction had the largest increase in the share of workers coming from other industries.

?? 2.5% decrease in active job listings in July from June, with the decline being widespread across most industries. The Management and Administrative Services sector had the largest decline in the demand for workers (-8.7% decline in active listings in July), while Finance had the largest increase in active job postings (+3% increase in July).

?? 45.3 days to fill job openings in July. This is 1.9 days less than in June and 1.3 days more than in July 2023.

?? 20.6% decrease in the number of employees notified of layoffs under the WARN Act compared to June 2024.

Weak Jobs Report in July

The July 2024 jobs report painted a less optimistic picture of the US labor market than previous months. The unemployment rate rose even further to 4.3%, the highest level since October 2021. It is important to note that the higher unemployment rate comes amid an increase in labor force participation. Meanwhile, the economy added 114,000 new jobs in July, a fewer-than-expected growth in jobs. Employment gains occurred mainly in healthcare, construction, and transportation and warehousing sectors. Employment gains in May and June were revised downwards by 2,000 and 27,000 jobs respectively, suggesting a notable slowdown in the labor market since the beginning of the second quarter of 2024. Overall, the July report suggests a cooling of the labor market.

What does the granular workforce data from Revelio Labs have to say about the labor market, and what do they signal about the labor market in the near future?

Hiring and attrition continue their declining trend

Revelio Labs’ workforce intelligence data show that hiring and attrition rates have continued their declining trend, both reaching a record low. The hiring rate stood at 13.2% (decreasing from the 13.5% hiring rate recorded in June). Meanwhile, the attrition rate stood at 11.4% (lower than the rate of 11.6% recorded in June). As attrition has been declining at a slower rate, the workforce growth rate has been decreasing. The workforce growth rate (difference between hiring and attrition rates) stood at 1.8% (lower than the growth rate in June on a m.o.m basis).

For the full digest and insight into the jobs report, visit our site.

Have a great day!

Loujaina Abdelwahed, PhD , Economist at Revelio Labs

Please view our data and methodology here.