Did I Get It Right? A Look Back at My 2024 Partnering Predictions

At the start of 2024, I wrote a blog outlining the key trends that would shape partnering strategies and programs in a year defined by ongoing volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA).? Before sharing my predictions for 2025, I thought it would be only fair to reflect back on last year’s predictions and assess how accurate they were.

Prediction 1: ?Indirect as Growth Engine

Last year, I predicted that a sluggish economy would mean a greater reliance on indirect routes-to-market, increasing the pressure on channel leaders to grow partner revenue. Strategy and program investments were expected to focus on helping partners succeed by providing resources to close deals faster, offering incentives and streamlined onboarding to accelerate time-to-revenue, and delivering discounted or free training to upskill partners.

Did I get it right? For the most part, yes. While a few vendors shifted their focus towards more direct revenue, many made bold commitments to their channel investments. Notably:

• Cisco launched a major overhaul of its partner program, now called “Cisco 360 Partner Program” (covered in more detail throughout this blog).? As part of this announcement, it committed to a $80 million investment to provide partners enablement? benefits.
• IBM declared 2024 the “year of the partner,” with its CEO pledging to grow partner-generated revenue from 30% to 50% in the coming years.
• Dell Technologies introduced a Partner First Strategy for Storage. By 2024, it claims over 99% of storage customers and prospects were designated “partner first,” and the number of accounts eligible for Partner of Record (PoR) status quadrupled.

The significance of IBM’s and Dell Technologies’ moves lies in their historically strong direct-sales focus, this transition signals a major strategic shift.? The battle for partner mind and wallet share is only going to get tougher!

Prediction 2: ?Do less, with more focus, to drive greater impact

The next prediction focused on the impact of cost optimization and the pressure on channel leaders to do more with less. I expected strategies to focus on prioritizing high-potential partners and even rationalizing in order to focus resources on the partners that would drive the most impact. I also predicted that more vendors would leverage more automation to reduce manual tasks and build better analytics to identify profitable partnerships and address underperformance.

Did I get it right? Yes, but progress in some areas has been slower than anticipated. While there were positive steps—such as prioritizing incentive payouts and greater adoption of PRM and other partner tech—many vendors still have a lot of work to do. Fully automating the partner journey and delivering a consistently strong partner experience remain significant challenges. This is becoming particularly prevalent in co-sell partnerships. Becoming more data-driven is a clear priority, but fragmented, unreliable data sources and an ongoing reliance on spreadsheets continue to hinder progress in this space.

Prediction 3:? Transformation Demands Program Flexibility

For the last couple of years, I’ve been talking about how the shift from a linear channel to a more interconnected ecosystem will drive the need for more flexible partner programs. Last year, I expected to see vendors trying to simplify partner programs while maintaining flexibility—things like open tracks to enable partners to participate in multiple program types simultaneously, including role-based (e.g., consult, implement, manage), points-based, and self-selecting partner programs. I also expected to see more vendors offering tailored incentives to align with diverse roles, partner types, and sales motions.

Did I get it right? Yes. Many vendors made significant announcements here. A standout example is the Cisco 360 Partner Program, which involves major changes exactly aligned with all of my predictions—bar one. Instead of adopting a role-based program, it will actually be moving away from it. Currently, Cisco’s program is structured around four roles—Integrator, Provider, Developer, and Advisor—each with tiers of Select, Premier, or Gold. The new program, launching in 2026, will move to two main tiers: Cisco Partner and Cisco Preferred Partner.

This doesn’t signal that Cisco is no longer recognizing the diversity of partners’ roles. Instead, it maintains that by allowing partners to fulfil multiple roles, it is enhancing its ecosystem focus.? Cisco believes this will reward partners across various business models, enabling partners to achieve Preferred Partner status more holistically. Cisco also announced a consolidation of existing incentive programs (VIP, Lifecycle Incentives, CSPP) into a single Cisco Partner Incentive (CPI), which will include a mix of upfront discounts and back-end rebates aligned to partner value.

Prediction 4:? Partner Success = Customer Success

Last year I predicted that recurring revenue models would have a significant impact on partner programs.? I expected to see Net Revenue Retention (NRR) as a key partner success metric, and anticipated vendors introducing programs and initiatives to drive customer usage / adoption and renewals.? I also expected to see vendors prioritize partners with robust customer success capabilities.

Did I get it right? Again, yes (phew!).? For example, as highlighted earlier, the Cisco 360 Partner Program emphasizes a value-driven approach. Partner value will be measured across four dimensions: foundational (investment in lifecycle and managed services), capabilities (technical specialization), performance (sales growth, flexible licensing, and renewal ratios), and engagement (customer success, adoption, and usage). This shifts the focus from transactions to lifecycle services and business value.

Similarly, Microsoft’s new framework includes two levels: Solutions Partner, based on a partner capability score measuring performance, skilling, and customer success, and Specializations, recognizing deep technical expertise. These changes reflect a broader trend to align partner success with customer success through lifecycle management.

Managed services has also been a significant area of investment and partner program evolution. For instance, Flexera announced the largest investment in its history to enhance its MSP product capabilities, with plans to double this investment by 2025 to meet growing demand from partners and the market.

Prediction 5:? Meeting the Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance (ESG) Imperative

Last year, I anticipated increased focus on sustainability within partner programs, specifically the introduction of buy-back programs for recycling and reselling refurbished equipment, lifecycle management initiatives promoting leasing and sustainable models, and ESG certifications to enhance reporting and support ITAD practices.

Did I get it right? Sort of.? Which is a bit disappointing.? While progress was made, incorporating ESG initiatives in partner programs was slower than anticipated. However, there were some notable announcements:

• HP expanded its Amplify Impact partner program globally, announcing plans to extend Amplify Impact to distribution partners and nearly 50 countries. HP is on track to enrol at least 50% of Amplify partners by 2025. In a recent report, HP claimed considerable success with this program—70% of HP Amplify Impact partners improved RFP win rates, and 50% gained new customers in the past year due to participation in the program.
• Dell Technologies launched a new Sustainability & ESG Competency for partners. It is also incentivizing circular IT by offering a 7% rebate to partners that resell its Dell Asset Recovery Services.
• Many partners and distributors have also scaled and invested in their ITAD (IT Asset Disposition) operations.

As I wrap up this retrospective on 2024’s partnering predictions, it’s clear that the industry has made significant strides in many areas, though some challenges remain.

Partner ecosystems continue to evolve rapidly, shaped by macroeconomic pressures, technology advancements, and ongoing pressure to improve flexibility, sustainability, and customer-centricity. While some predictions exceeded expectations, others revealed opportunities for improvement and innovation.

Okay, thanks for reading.? Would love any comments, now on to my next post... partnering predictions for 2025!