Diary Week 83: Has Jay (And The Fed) Got The Blinkers on?
I cannot help feeling that I have "Seen This Movie Before"
As we look at the message from the Fed it seems clear that they are fighting yesterday's battle of more correctly formulating policy on yesterday's mistakes.
The scars of the 2020-2021 "transitory Inflation" debacle have clearly not healed and were likely somewhat compounded when Employment "appeared" to have stabilised following summer/fall softness that led to 100 bp's of cuts.
Now they are back to a point that they do not want to move as they assess the effects of new economic policy.
That is all very well but there are 2 sides to that "sword".
Global Macro Volatility Portfolio Manager
1 天前Rate cuts don’t solve for uncertainty over trade Tom. They didn’t help biz investment in 2019 and won’t here. This is a White House issue - their trade agenda is all over the place and the animal spirits and optimism are gone very quickly. Can come back very quickly if they get their act together. The Fed cannot and should not cut rates when the WH is actively choosing to raise the prices of goods universally by 20-25% overnight after 4 years of elevated inflation…. Bessent is the one with blinders on.
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1 天前Brilliant as usual Tom Fitzpatrick