?????? ?????????????? ?????????????????? ???????????? ???? ?? ???????????????? ?????????????? ???? ??????????????!!
Dharmik Bakhai
? 1.8M+ Impressions ? Ex-Summer Intern @ Shyam Steel ? Finance ? Technical Analysis ? FRM Part 1 Candidate ? Equity & Derivatives Trader ? NISM Certified(Series-VIII, VA) ? CFA IFP ? HPAIR HCONF’23 ? #dbspeaks
Do you know about the ?????????? ???????? ???????????????
The Greek?debt crisis?is the dangerous amount of?sovereign debt?Greece owed the European Union between 2008 & 2018.?
Let's decode the whole timeline below
?? In 1999 , the Greek Govt. was in a bit of a pickle ; The European Union had just launched a fancy new currency “????????” which would be shared by its members & even though Greece was part of the EU they left off the invite.
Why?
Despite massive tax evasion problems the Greek govt had been spending to boost social benefits & wages which had caused their debt-to-gdp ratio to rise well above the 60% required to adopt the currency.
??So it was a difficult decision for them to choose between cutting back spending/ missing out the eurozone party unless they had a third option.
?? In between this Goldman Sachs , an investment bank came out with an idea in a way to meet the currency adoption criteria by masking the govt’s debt loads through “???????????????? ??????????”.
Well it did involve a bit of lying but in this way, the country could avoid radical reforms & could reap the benefits of the euro , i.e . A win-win.
?? Greece govt gave it a shot & also implemented some budget cuts too in sight of a hand to adopt the currency in 2001.
#?? The Currency brought with it more trade & since the Euro allows Greece to pay back off the financial strength of its fellow eurozone members , the govt aimed access to better financing enough to even bring the Olympics home in 2004 whilst the debt-to-GDP kept on rising above 110% & things were a bit precarious but who cared?
??The economy was growing ; there was plenty of EU money in the budget deficit & as long as everything kept rolling , everything was good good.
“???? ???????????????????? ?????????? ?????? ???????? ???? ???? ???????? , ?????? ?????? ???? ???? ??????????????”.
#?? And boom, the real estate crisis in the US has triggered a ???????????? ??????????????????.
And guess what?
? It hit Greece like a train. It’s GDP started falling as tourism & shipping was down.
? The Athens Stock Exchange plummeted 65% in 2008 . On top of it the borrowing costs kept increasing.
#?? Didn’t the Euro Currency which Greece fought for help them?
Well it prevented Greece from stabilising through monetary policy & just in case things didn’t look bad enough , there was another SURPRISE in 2009 which revealed that the govt was cooking the books as it’s budget deficit wasn’t 6.7% but more than double 15.4% ; borrowing costs skyrocket as the entire country’s credibility got smashed!
??In Apr 2010, with a debt-to-gdp of 127% the country’s credit rating dropped to junk taking Greece toward default as it drowned in its pile of public debt.
Another SURPRISE……Someone comes to a rescue with rags of money? A SantaClaus? No??
It’s “?????? ????????????” ; consisting of two EU entities namely ???????????????? ???????????????????? (????) & ???????????????? ?????????????? ????????(??????) in the ?????? which came to bail Greece out to save the EU from the ramifications of a Greek default.
The plan was to lend Greece 110?????????????? ?????????? to avoid default , use the bailout money to pay off the expensive creditors & indeed get the govt to commit higher taxes & lower spending to bring the country back into surplus & wait for the recession to blow over.
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#?? In May 2010, the troika gave Greece a lifeline . Did the bailout help?
The bailout didn’t quite fix the problems…
In fact the austerity measures put further pressures on GDP & brought Debt-to-GDP up to 172% by 2011 with creditors quickly draining the bailout funds .
The situation instead of getting good got bad & the troika identified that more drastic measures were required & hence they devised a new plan & give Greece another 130?????????????? ?????????? & negotiate with creditors & cut the country’s IOU by 53.5%-“??????????????”, & in return get the government to commit to further austerity measures to bring the country back to the surplus & wait for the recession to blow over.
??So in Feb 2012, troika prepared for the largest sovereign debt restructuring in the history & gave Greece a second lifeline &
**????????! ??????????????**
#?? The plan grabbed a hold & after 2 years of further tax reforms , layoffs & wage cuts the government reported a structural surplus.
#?? But wait , the austerity measures forced the government to cut spending & increase taxes in 2014. They cost 72?????????????? ?????????? or 40% of GDP. That reduced the tax revenues needed to repay the debt. Unemployment rose above 25%, while youth unemployment hit 50%.?Rioting broke out in the streets & the political system was in upheaval as voters turned to anyone who promised a painless way out.?
?? Then the election of left wing , anti-austerity Syriza party marked one of the most dramatic twists in the story.
The Syriza party won a resounding victory in Snap Elections , breaking more than 40 years of two-party rule , wherein the incoming PM(Alexis Tsipras) said he would push for a re-negotiation of bailout terms, debt cancellations & renewed public sector spending-setting up a showdown with international creditors that threatened Greek default & potential exit from the monetary union.
#?? And ?????? ???????? ???????????? ??????????!!!
?? Creditors flee Greece once again & a credit- liquidity crisis emerged with fears gripping the country amid concerns of GREXIT, Greece’s departure from the EU.
?? In June 2015, they decreeded a shut-down of the banks-limiting bank withdrawals(to avoid a bank run), imposed capital controls,& agreed to the third Economic Adjustment Programme.
#?? ???????????? ?????????????? ???????????????? ?????????????? ?? 1.6?????????????? ???????? ???????? ?????????????? ???? ?????? ??????, ?????????? ?????? 1???? ?????????????????? ?????????????? ???? ???? ????.
??The foundation of Greece’s economy began to crack as as the govt shut down stock exchanges & banking systems.
?? The Greeks continued to fight against a new bailout proposed by EU but at that time the country & its financial purgatory, GREXIT inching closer & no more leverage for negotiation , in July 2015 ,a very “desperate” govt threw in the towel grabbing the hold of EU’s third lifeline(supposedly the third bailout) & accepting a 86billion euros in August.
The ECB resumed some support for Greek Banks with that boost in spending . The Greek people prepared once again for a round of cuts , reforms & hard times ahead.
#?? All-in-all the economy shrinked 25% as a result of the crisis & till date 1/3 Greek people at a risk of living in poverty.
#?? As Greece comes down to roads of recovery , one shouldn’t forget this devastating case study of the brutal consequences of a ???????????? ??????????????????????????.
#finance #greekdebtcrisis #sovereigndebt #corporatefinance #business #government #money #rescue #help #economy #greece
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1 年This is great! Keep it going bro :)
Diversified Enterprenuer with a Decade Plus Experience - Talk about Business, Finance , Economy and a whole lot of Other Stuff .
1 年What a Lovely Good Insightful Read Dharmik Bakhai . ???? Indeed a Good Balance between Fiscal Accomodation and Fiscal Tightening is required for every Country. This is the correct Fiscal Management in my view.
Enterprise Account Executive @ FieldAssist | Helping GenZ become Thought Leader on LI | CPG Product Success Strategist ????| B2B SaaS | Advocacy @MongoDB | Harvard'22 Scholar???? Daily mini TED talks ??, 9:45 am IST
1 年This is so #informative Time to level up my financial knowledge. Eyes on your content, now! ?? Dharmik ????
? 1.8M+ Impressions ? Ex-Summer Intern @ Shyam Steel ? Finance ? Technical Analysis ? FRM Part 1 Candidate ? Equity & Derivatives Trader ? NISM Certified(Series-VIII, VA) ? CFA IFP ? HPAIR HCONF’23 ? #dbspeaks
1 年Have tried to post #content in a new form. Do support it guys if you like it!! For more such posts make sure to follow me ?? Dharmik Bakhai