DGA Primary Tracker: Iowa Caucus Night Preview

Iowa Overview

The Iowa caucuses operate very differently from the primary election used by most other states. Rather than going to polls and casting ballots, Iowans gather in schools, churches, public libraries, or even individuals' houses. Caucus Night matters most to candidates trying to make a case for why their candidacy is formidable. According to NPR, more than $100 million was spent on TV ads alone in Iowa this cycle. A good showing in Iowa gives the prevailing candidates momentum going into New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. While Iowa is important for legitimacy, fundraising, and media hits (unpaid media is media coverage), the state has also proven to be a gamble. In the modern tech era, several big names have famously lost Iowa, including President Joe Biden in 2020 and the late Senator John McCain (R-AZ) in 2008. There is an old saying that there are only ‘three tickets out of Iowa.’ The state’s caucuses do not anoint a nominee, but they do winnow down the field.?????????????????????????????????

Democratic Primary Outlook

This year, Iowa Democrats will caucus on the same day as Republicans, but in a change for 2024, caucus-goers will not vote or indicate their pick to represent the party on the November presidential ballot. Instead, they will vote for a party nominee through a mail-in voting process that begins on January 12th and concludes on March 5th. The Democratic caucuses on January 15th will elect delegates to the county conventions in March, which is the next step in selecting the individuals to serve as delegates to the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August. National convention delegates will be required to vote for a presidential nominee in accordance with the results of the mail-in voting process.???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

Republican Primary Outlook

Donald Trump leads the polls by more than 30 points, despite visiting the state infrequently compared with his rivals. His expansive advantage has transformed the Iowa caucuses into a contest for second place between Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis. Politico, among other pollsters, believe Haley could squeak past DeSantis for a distant second-place finish. This would certainly catapult her into New Hampshire with some momentum and certainly be a huge “loss” for the Florida governor. State party officials say they expect results will start arriving around 8:30 p.m. Central time – and that most precincts will report 60-90 minutes after that. Oh, by the way, did you check the weather in Iowa for Monday Night? Des Moines is expecting a low of -14 degrees Fahrenheit (-25 degrees Celsius).

What We're Watching

Lyon, Osceola, Sioux, and O’Brien counties, tucked in the northwestern corner of the state, have the highest concentration of Republicans and evangelical Christian populations. How will they split their votes?

Does Vivek Ramaswamy succeed in bringing out non-traditional caucus-goers? Negative 14 degrees on Monday night might make that harder.

Can Haley close the gap in urban areas such as Des Moines, Sioux City, and Cedar Rapids? Many believe she will make-up ground with college-educated suburban women who do not view former President Trump as electable for a myriad of reasons. Does Haley gain from former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s recent exit from the race?

Do Iowa’s Evangelicals stick with Trump or deliver DeSantis a surprise “victory” as the second-place finisher?

Stay tuned to find out.

Political Calendar

Red = Republican Caucus/Primary

Blue = Democratic Caucus/Primary

Purple = Both Parties' Caucus/Primary

GOP Convention will be held July 15-19; the Democratic Convention will be held August 19-20