We are pleased to provide you with another edition of The Development Digest.
Please contact me on 0402 085 702 / [email protected] if you would like to receive our more detailed weekly updates via email each Friday morning.
This update will cover:
JLL Australian Apartment Market Research Overview Q4 2023
RBA – Holds Rates for the Third Consecutive Month
Feature Article – New Home Supply to Hit Decade Low
Headlines of the Week
JLL Australian Apartment Market Research Overview Q4 2023?
We are pleased to provide you with our next detailed summary from the JLL National Australian Apartment Market Overview Q4 report.
Should you wish to receive a fully copy of this report, please reach out to the JLL team.?
This Week’s Hot Topic: Rental Market?
Rental vacancy remains low across most of Australia. As is the normal pattern, vacancy rose slightly in December. However, Canberra is the only capital city with vacancy above 2% and it remains sub-1% in Adelaide and Perth.
A rebound??to record levels of both migration??and foreign students in 2023 drove a lot of the tightening in the rental market over the year. This is unlikely??to change in the short- term and extreme pressure on rental markets is likely to quickly re-emerge in 2024 as foreign students return.
Most capital cities have recorded strong growth in asking rents for apartments??over the past year, albeit the pace of growth??is now slowing. Sydney and Melbourne experienced drops in asking rents in the early part of COVID-19, particularly in inner city locations, but caught up a little to the smaller capitals over 2023 (particularly Sydney) as migrants and students have returned. Affordability is now the most significant constraint on rental growth in many markets. Over the past three years, Perth, Sydney, Brisbane??and Adelaide have all experienced??growth of between 35-50%.
Feature Article – New Home Supply to Hit Decade Low
Published in the AFR during the week, New Home Supply to Hit Decade Low article continues to underpin the constant demand for new dwellings as population growth reaches record highs. The supply of new homes will crash to the lowest level in over a decade by 2026, worsening housing and rental affordability, and leaving the federal government far short of its goal to build 1.2 million homes by mid-2029.
Below provides an overview of the article:
Across capital cities, 79,000 new homes will be finished in 2026, a drop of 26 per cent compared with last year due to planning bottlenecks, labour shortages and soaring material costs.
Based on its forecasts, the industry will need to double its capacity and build an “eye-watering” 300,000 homes between 2026 and 2029 to meet the 1.2 million target.
Federal Housing Minister Julie Collins said the government was working with states and territories to help meet the “ambitious national target” of building 1.2 million homes by July 2029.
She cited a $3 billion new homes bonus, $500 million housing support program, $10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund, and new incentives to boost the supply of rental housing.
In Victoria, where the state government aims to build 80,000 homes a year for 10 years, measures being implemented to speed up the delivery of new housing include centralising planning decisions and dropping permit requirements for single dwellings and granny flats.
RBA – Holds Rates for the Third Consecutive Month?
Following the RBA’s second meeting of 2024, they elected to hold rates steady, keeping the cash rate at 4.35%. This is now the third consecutive month the RBA has held ready steady, with the last 25bp hike in November 2023.?
The AFR – RBA rate rise stays on table, as inflation holds
The market rout was propelled, in part, by a waning conviction that central banks are nearing interest rate cuts following hotter-than-expected consumer and producer price data out of the United States over the past month.
Markets are continuing to price the first rate cut from the RBA in September, but traders have tempered expectations that the central bank will wind back talk of further rate increases going forward.
The AFR – Home builders keep buyers in the dark about finances
House prices have shot up by about a third across the country since the onset of the pandemic four years ago, delivering $188,000 in capital gains to homeowners on average, despite 13 interest rate rises, data from CoreLogic shows.
In the past four years, prices jumped by up to 50 per cent in more than two-fifths of all suburbs and up to 75 per cent in more than a third of all suburbs nationwide.
The AFR – Big hole in housing as number of international students soars
The pipeline of new student accommodation has fallen sharply despite strong tailwinds for the sector from the return of international students, rising residential rents, and an undersupply of housing in the broader market, according to JLL
Demand for student housing has soared with a full recovery in international student numbers last year, which now exceed the previous 2019 peak by 4 per cent, according to JLL research. The resurgence was fuelled mainly by China and India, but there has also been exceptional growth in student numbers from the Philippines, which were up 107 per cent, Colombia 94 per cent and Pakistan 54 per cent.
‘‘Australia’s consistently strong university rankings, connectivity to Asia, and the quality of student life have all been key pull-factors for international students studying in Australia,’’ Mr Bergin said.
JLL analysis suggests there will be an underlying demand for 10,500 beds annually over the next five years, which translates to a shortfall of 7000 beds.?
The Age – The best case: 30,000 homes ticked yes in four months
The Victorian government is considering development applications for more than 30,000 homes, and could potentially approve the projects within four months as part of its pledge to fast-track developments in return for affordable housing.
But an independent analysis of another state housing initiative – the Future Homes program, which provides off-the-shelf building designs – estimates that the cookie-cutter homes scheme could be applied to only 3250 individual lots across the state, and another 68,000 if lots were consolidated.
The government has prioritised more than 30,000 homes either in the pre-approval process or under active consideration under Labor’s Development Facilitation Program, which grants developers quicker approvals for including affordable housing.
The AFR – New home supply to hit decade low
The supply of new homes will crash to the lowest level in over a decade by 2026, worsening housing and rental affordability, and leaving the federal government far short of its goal to build 1.2 million homes by mid-2029.
Across capital cities, 79,000 new homes will be finished in 2026, a drop of 26 per cent compared with last year due to planning bottlenecks, labour shortages and soaring material costs.
In Greater Melbourne, which accounts for 35 per cent of the national land market, new lot releases fell 50 per cent to just under 9000, while Sydney slumped 35 per cent to just under 6000 and South East Queensland fell 15 per cent to just over 8600.
Apartment and townhouse completions rose 2 per cent in Sydney and 9 per cent in Melbourne to just under 18,000 in each market last year. Prices for new units grew by 6 per cent in 2023, lifting the combined capital city median to $614,741.
The AFR – Even after COVID boom, builders prefer fixed-price
Home builders coming out of the COVID-19 boom are putting themselves at risk of surging prices once again, with 85.7 per cent of builders still using fixed-price contracts, a new industry survey shows.
The ‘‘slight’’ increase last year in builders using fixed-price contracts reflected a more stable pricing environment than in 2022, but still left many exposed to a potential surge in costs – as happened in the COVID-19 boom – said Association of Professional Builders co-founder Russ Stephens.
The AFR – RBA keeps rate rise in reserve
Announcing the cash rate had been left on hold at 4.35 per cent, RBA governor Michele Bullock said recent data suggested the central bank was ‘‘on the right track’’ in its battle against inflation, but stressed the outlook for the cash rate remained uncertain.
The RBA does not expect inflation, currently 3.4 per cent, to return within its 2 to 3 per cent target range until December 2025, and Ms Bullock has signalled little tolerance for any delays.
The AFR – Visas for tradies, planning reforms crucial to lifting housing supply
Developers also called for an overhaul of state and territory planning systems to lift housing starts, after an Urban Development Institute of Australia report forecast housing completions to hit a decade low of just 79,000 dwellings by 2026.
Despite big infrastructure projects drawing huge pools of construction labour away from the housing market, the federal government excluded foreign tradies from a fast-track visa system as part of a December 2023 migration strategy.
The AFR – Rate pause could lure home buyers back
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to keep the cash rate steady, coupled with economists’ expectations for rate cuts that could begin later this year, would boost sentiment and spur more homebuyers back into the market, experts say.
At the same time, a scenario where interest rates stay higher for longer could tip some existing homeowners over the edge, fuelling a rise in distressed listings.
Tim Lawless, CoreLogic research director, agreed the hold decision, with lower inflation and a growing expectation that interest rates will fall later this year, should help lift confidence.
The Age – Inner-city space comes at premium
Home buyers in 10 Melbourne suburbs are paying more than $10,000 per square metre of land, mostly due to the small block sizes and semi-detached houses in popular inner-city areas.
But buyers looking for the best value-for-money will have to go as far as 60 kilometres from the CBD, where a square metre of land can cost as little as $313.
The Australian – Gurner’s vision for futuristic wellness hub
Luxury entrepreneur Tim Gurner is betting that the city, better known for its cafe culture and unpredictable weather, is at least open to the idea as it deals with the blight of high office vacancy rates.
Mr Gurner, who has ambitions to launch projects around the nation that capitalise on the shift to apartment living, is hopeful that Melburnians will embrace the concept of Elysium Fields delivering them a form of a utopian afterlife. “I am increasingly driven to create an ultimate wellness experience for the communities in which our buildings sit, that brings together cutting edge wellness and health amenities with a connection to nature, which we now know unequivocally improves sleep, our mental state of being and unlocks myriad health benefits,” Mr Gurner said.
The $1.7bn precinct, eventually to have about 1700 apartments, will offer the kind of health technologies normally associated with futuristic lab settings. The concept is based on a regenerative anti-ageing and wellness work by American neuroscientist Andrew Huberman who emphasises the five pillars of health as sleep, sunlight, movement, nutrition, and social connection.
The AFR – Migration record after huge student intake
A surge of international students and temporary workers pushed net arrivals into the country to a record of 548,000 in the year to September 2023, but experts say the pandemic rebound in migration has peaked.
Annual population growth hit 2.5 per cent – the highest rate since 1952 – on account of 145,244 people arriving in the quarter, the second-highest number on record, according to data released yesterday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
We hope you have enjoyed another edition of The Development Digest. Please reach out to our team if there is anything we can assist you with.
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