Developing a Framework for Nuclear Energy in Africa: Key Policy Considerations

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The energy sector is undergoing a significant transformation as countries strive to reduce fossil fuels, cut greenhouse gas emissions, and achieve net zero. Nuclear energy is at the forefront of this transition. With the urgency to address climate change, countries are actively reducing their carbon footprint, investing in clean energy sources, and setting ambitious targets. The role of nuclear energy in this shift is crucial, offering a reliable, low-carbon solution to meet increasing global energy demand. Over the past 50 years, the use of nuclear power has reduced CO2 emissions by over 60 gigatonnes—nearly two years’ worth of global energy-related emissions.[i] However, in developing economies, nuclear power potential has still not been realized. As of 2023, only two African countries have nuclear power programs: South Africa and Egypt. South Africa has two 970 MWE nuclear reactors, which started commercial operation in the 1980s and whose output accounted for 4.9 percent of the electricity production in 2022.[ii] This has, in turn, led to the need to develop a landscape where nuclear energy will thrive on the continent.

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The Nuclear Energy Market

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Nuclear power is an important low-emission source of electricity, providing about 10% of global electricity generation. For those countries where it is accepted, it can complement renewables in reducing power sector emissions, while also contributing to electricity security as a dispatchable power source.[iii] Thirteen countries in 2022 produced at least one-quarter of their electricity from nuclear. France gets up to around 70% of its electricity from nuclear energy, while Ukraine, Slovakia, Belgium, and Hungary get about half of their electricity from nuclear power generation. It also serves as an option for producing low-emission heat and hydrogen.[iv]

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The nuclear energy market has witnessed both growth and decline in recent decades, with several key trends shaping its outlook. Many countries have active nuclear energy programs, with the top producers being the United States, France, China, Russia, and South Korea. These countries have invested heavily in nuclear power, considering that it is a strategic energy source that can provide baseload electricity without greenhouse gas emissions.[v]

The United States is the world's largest producer of nuclear power, with 93 operating reactors that generated over 800 billion kWh in 2021, accounting for about 20% of the country's total electricity. France is the second largest, with nuclear providing over 70% of its electricity generation. China has been rapidly expanding its nuclear fleet, with 54 operating reactors, and plans to add dozens more in the coming decades as part of its goal to reach carbon neutrality.[vi]

The future of nuclear energy varies by country. Some, like France and China, have ambitious plans to build new reactors and maintain nuclear as a core part of their energy mix.[vii] Others, like Germany and Japan, have moved to phase out nuclear power following safety concerns after the Fukushima disaster.[viii] Overall, the global outlook for nuclear energy is mixed. While some countries see it as essential for decarbonization, high construction costs and public opposition remain barriers to widespread new build. Small modular reactors (SMRs) offer a potential solution, with their lower upfront costs and scalable designs. However, SMRs are still in the development and demonstration phases.[ix] There is also an international market for nuclear technology and services. Countries like Russia, the United States, and France are major exporters of nuclear reactors, fuel, and expertise. This global trade allows countries without indigenous nuclear capabilities to still benefit from nuclear power.

Given that nuclear energy is a low-emission source of electricity, it seems like the most viable option for reducing carbon emissions and bridging the energy gap in Africa.

Africa is in great need of energy: More than 40 percent of its population—approximately 600 million people—lacked access to electricity in 2022. That same year, 74 percent of the electricity was produced with fossil fuels, with low-carbon energies only producing 24.7 percent of the total electricity output (19 percent for hydro, 4.5 percent for wind and solar, and 1.2 percent for nuclear), according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).[x] However, the adoption of nuclear energy is low, with only two African countries having nuclear power programs. Egypt started construction in July 2022 of the first of four Russian-designed VVER units to be built at the El Dabaa site on the Mediterranean coast. The second unit began construction in November 2022, the third in May 2023, and the fourth in January 2024. All four reactors are expected to be operational by 2030.[xi] South Africa has two operable nuclear reactors, with a combined net capacity of 1.9 GWe, and is the only African country currently producing electricity from nuclear. In 2022, nuclear generated 4.9% of the country's electricity.[xii] South Africa remains committed to plans for further capacity, but financing constraints are significant. Meanwhile, Ghana, Kenya, and Nigeria have already made their national decision to deploy nuclear energy and are progressing with plans. African countries exploring the use of nuclear energy include Algeria, Ethiopia, Morocco, Niger, Namibia, Rwanda, Senegal, Sudan, Tanzania, Tunisia, Uganda, and Zambia. The World Nuclear Association Nuclear Fuel Report estimated that by 2040, Africa could have 18 GWe of nuclear power based on current member state plans.[xiii]

Despite its plethora of advantages, the international nuclear energy sector has been ravaged by multiple challenges, which might also be the reason impeding its adoption in Africa. A significant challenge facing the nuclear industry is the aging of existing power plants. Many reactors were built in the 1970s-1980s and are reaching the end of their original design lifetimes. Extending the operating lives of these plants through license renewals and upgrades is crucial to maintaining current nuclear generation levels. However, the high costs of refurbishments and the potential for unexpected shutdowns at older plants create financial risks.[xiv] Careful management of these aging assets will be needed to ensure nuclear energy remains a viable option in the coming decades. Another challenge relates to major concerns that exist around the safety and security of nuclear projects. Disasters such as those witnessed in Chernobyl with the explosion of the No. 4 reactor at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine serve as a case in point. It is considered the worst nuclear disaster in history, with the initial explosion and subsequent fires releasing large amounts of radioactive contamination into the environment.[xv]

Nuclear energy is expected to play an increasingly important role in Africa’s energy programs. At least 16 countries are looking at ways to include nuclear as part of their energy mix, with an emphasis on electrification and energy security. Current use includes medicinal and agricultural applications, with the potential to play a much larger role on the continent[xvi]. But for this to be realized, Africa must take a holistic approach to building its nuclear energy sector.

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Policy Considerations for Developing a Framework for Nuclear Energy in Africa

The development of a comprehensive policy framework for the African nuclear sector is crucial for the safe, sustainable, and economically viable deployment of nuclear power in the region. Africa faces significant energy and electricity supply challenges, and nuclear energy is emerging as a promising solution to provide low-carbon, reliable energy to support the continent's socioeconomic development. However, the successful introduction of nuclear power in Africa hinges on robust infrastructure development, including human resource capabilities, grid infrastructure, security measures, radioactive waste management, etc.

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The key policy considerations for developing a framework for nuclear energy ?are:

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1.???????? Establishing a robust legal and regulatory framework: All nuclear energy activities in Africa must take place within a comprehensive legal and regulatory framework consistent with international best practices. This includes establishing the required operational and regulatory bodies to oversee the nuclear program. Apart from the regional framework, countries will need to ratify the conventions that form part of the international nuclear legal framework if they intend to develop a nuclear power program. Some of those conventions are the Convention on Nuclear Safety, the Joint Convention on the Safety of Spent Fuel Management, and the Safety of Radioactive Waste Management, etc.

2.?????? Ensuring nuclear and radiation safety: The highest priority must be given to ensuring nuclear and radiation safety in all aspects of the nuclear energy program. Appropriate safeguards and security measures must be in place. Appropriate waste management and nuclear plant safety regulations remain crucial aspects of ensuring that safe nuclear power generation continues. This requires regulators to have the resources and skills needed to review new projects and develop harmonized safety criteria for new designs. By engaging with both developers and the public, they can ensure that licensing requirements are communicated to all parties.

3.?????? Developing human resources and technical capabilities: Governments must encourage the development of institutional arrangements to ensure that countries have the necessary human resources and technical competencies to manage nuclear infrastructure. This includes supporting research, development, and innovation in nuclear technology.

4.????? Promoting cooperation: Regional and international cooperation and collaboration are critical for sharing infrastructure burdens and experiences, and achieving economic benefits from joint initiatives. International collaboration can accelerate the path to commercialization of new nuclear technologies and drive down their costs. Coordinating the development of new designs and construction of commercial-scale projects can accelerate innovation by avoiding duplication. Regulation and approval of new designs can also benefit from international collaboration. For example, bilateral or multilateral collaboration for reviewing and approving designs could shorten the time to market and reduce the costs of individual designs reaching multiple markets. This could also foster standardization, leading to faster implementation and lower project management costs. In instances where SMRs are factory-built and delivered largely intact to operational sites, planned collaboration across industry, regulators, and legislators can reduce logistical obstacles.

5.????? Securing adequate funding and financing: Governments must ensure adequate funding is available to support the technology development initiatives essential for implementing nuclear energy policy. Price support mechanisms may also be needed. It is also important to create risk management and financing frameworks that facilitate the mobilization of capital for nuclear plants at an acceptable cost, taking the risk profile and long horizons of nuclear projects into consideration to attract investment.

6.????? Enhancing public awareness and acceptance: Governments should create programs to stimulate public awareness and inform the public about nuclear energy, with a focus on its benefits and how its adoption will enable economic growth. This will ensure better receptivity among citizens regarding the energy program. Gaining public support is crucial for the successful implementation of nuclear power.

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CONCLUSION

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The development of a comprehensive framework and the implementation of key policy considerations are imperative steps towards harnessing the potential of nuclear energy in Africa. As the continent grapples with energy challenges and aims for sustainable development, nuclear power emerges as a viable solution to meet growing electricity demand, while mitigating environmental impact(s). By addressing legal, regulatory, safety, human resource, cooperation, funding, and public awareness aspects, African nations can lay the foundation for a safe, reliable, and economically viable nuclear energy sector. Embracing nuclear power within a balanced energy portfolio holds the promise of bolstering Africa's energy security, fostering socioeconomic growth, and contributing to global efforts toward a greener future. Through concerted efforts and strategic planning, Africa can embark on a path toward sustainable energy development, ensuring a brighter and more prosperous future for generations to come.

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[i] “Nuclear Power in a Clean Energy System” (2019) IEA (May) https://www.iea.org/reports/nuclear-power-in-a-clean-energy-system Accessed 26 April 2024

[ii] Vasquez, Ximena, ”Africa’s quest for universal electricity access and net-zero through small modular reactors” (2023) White & Case ( 19 December) https://www.whitecase.com/insight-our-thinking/africa-focus-winter-2023-universal-electricity#:~:text=Today%2C%20only%20two%20African%20countries,the%20electricity%20production%20in%202022. Accessed

[iii] Ibid n1

[iv] ” Nuclear Power in the World Today” (2024) World Nuclear Energ y (March) https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/nuclear-power-in-the-world-today.aspx Accessed 26 April 2024

[v] Ibid n4

[vi] Hemanth, ” The top ten nuclear energy-producing countries in 2021’ (2021) Power Technology (November 9) https://www.power-technology.com/features/top-ten-nuclear-energy-producing-countries/ Accessed 26 April 2024

[vii] ”Nuclear Power in China” (2024) World Nuclear Association (Februaury) https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/china-nuclear-power.aspx Accessed 26 April 2024

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[viii] Ibid n6

[ix] ” MANAGING THE FINANCIAL RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THE FINANCING OF NEW NUCLEAR POWER PLANT PROJECTS” https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/P1765_web.pdf Accessed 26 April 2024

[x] Ibid n1

[xi] Ibid n4

[xii] Ibid n4

[xiii] African Commission on Nuclear Energy (AFCONE) and World Nuclear Association join together to support sustainable development using nuclear energy in Africa” (2023) WNA (October 2023) https://world-nuclear.org/press/press-statements/african-commission-on-nuclear-energy-afcone-mou.aspx? Accessed 26 April 2024

[xiv] Ibid n1

[xv] Chernobyl Accident 1986” World Nuclear Energy https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/chernobyl-accident.aspx Accessed 26 April 2024

[xvi] Policy Insights, https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Policy-Insights-119-van-wyk-turianskyi-bosman.pdf Accessed 26 April 2024