Despite the delay to the ICE ban winter is coming – the aftermarket must be ready

The UK has now followed in Europe’s footsteps and delayed its plan to ban new sales of vehicles powered by the internal combustion engine (ICE) until 2035.

After the EU effectively ditched its own plans for 2030 earlier this year, I wrote a piece questioning the wisdom of putting all our eggs into the EV basket.

The question I raised was whether we’d really be ready in seven years. The answer: no, probably not.

There continues to be a massive shortfall in charging point infrastructure, with millions of people in towns and cities without a driveway from which to charge. The same goes for businesses with large fleet or logistics operations.

Some independent garages have struggled to grapple with the cost of retooling and upskilling staff to provide a full service for EV motorists.

So, Rishi’s U-turn could be seen as something of a relief for the aftermarket, giving garages more time to raise the necessary capital to effectively invest in the transition.

But I think this would be a mistake.

All the evidence points to major structural changes in the make-up of the vehicle parc which are already underway. The EV genie is out of the bottle.

Within 24 hours of the government’s announcement, the FT’s Peter Campbell had the scoop that officials had been in touch with the car industry to say that January’s forthcoming mandatory minimum level of EV sales would still come into effect.

Then Nissan’s chief executive came out swinging for EVs, saying that the world ‘needs to move on’ from the ICE. While his view isn’t universally shared across the industry, it’s clear that a big shift is already well underway and won’t be reversed by policy shifts in Europe and the UK.

For instance, between 2019 and 2022, the proportion of new vehicles sold in the UK that were petrol or diesel fell from 90% to less than half. ?

We’re already seeing the impact of this in the aftermarket, with the evidence suggesting that these vehicles are already steering clear of independents. ?

50% of EV or hybrid drivers have changed their repairer since getting their vehicle and 25% say they want an independent workshop with a proven specialism in EV or hybrid repair, which is a great opportunity for the aftermarket.

A five-year delay is just a minor reprieve, if that, with the independent aftermarket already missing out on revenue. It’s also worth reflecting on the odds of 2030 being reinstated as Labour has promised to do so if they come into power at the next general election, which is very likely coming next year.

The industry faces a stark choice between two completely contrasting trajectories of either terminal decline or future prosperity.

This is an issue that workshops can’t afford to ignore. But, as I wrote in my last blog, nor one that many can afford to respond to right now.

We will be pushing the Government to use the time it has bought to find ways of supporting the aftermarket’s transition, which is just as important as helping deliver the charging infrastructure we’ll all need.

For any garage with the opportunity to do so now - get trained, develop your specialism, and advertise it. The opportunities are there to seize today, even if the costs of inaction have been kicked a little further down the road.