Despairing for our country

I have recently become more despairing for our country and the direction it seems some people want it to be heading in.

A series of recent events—the pandemic, Three Waters, MIQ facilities, lockdowns—is bringing out the worst in some people: intolerance, contempt, anger and fear, wrapped up in a range of conspiracy theories and hysterical comparisons with historic atrocities.

We have anti-vaxxers, libertarians, anti-One World Government, white supremacists, sovereign citizens, new age spiritualists, alternative health practitioners, all combining with anti-Labour political activists into a singular group opposing public health measures designed to address a disease that is highly infectious and virulent.

And let’s start right there. Covid is not flu. It’s much worse. Nonetheless, many choose to dismiss fears of this new virus as overblown hysteria despite 750,000 people in the US, 140,000 in the UK and a worldwide official death toll of 5 million (and some estimates triple that). It’s difficult to understand why the deniers choose to continue with this disbelief in Covid’s virulence, but there’s no doubt that a belief that there’s a conspiracy between Big Pharma, One World Government and Mainstream Media are pushing a lie in order to install control over our lives lies behind this belief.

?Despite our remarkable success—or, I suspect, because of it—the cries of ‘Loss of Freedoms’ and ‘think of the economy’ ring loud across the social media wastelands. The government is an “authoritarian dictatorship” governing in an illegal manner and forcing unwanted and unwarranted restrictions on people’s choices to do what they want and on forcing people to get a vaccine they do not want.

As ludicrous as these claims are to many of us, the ability to reason with the people who believe these things is minimal. These ideas have burrowed deep into the psyche of those who were willing to believe them, regardless of their starting point.

In turn, these people look at us and cannot believe that we cannot see what they see. The controlling narrative of government and MSM is designed to keep us cowed and compliant and slaves to the system. Those of us who think these beliefs are ludicrous have not been ‘red-pilled’ (a right-wing reference to The Matrix scene with the hero is offered a choice of pills – red to wake up to the reality, or blue to stay asleep). The virus is a hoax, vaccines don’t work and are killing people by the thousands which is ignored by MSM in order to keep profits flowing to the pharmaceutical companies. The government, or Big Pharma (take your pick), has manufactured the crisis to keep us enslaved while they install Agenda 21 as the next step to a One World Government.

?Under unrelenting bombardment from the Covid-deniers, who are united in their unwavering conviction, it is only natural to waver in confidence that what they say is false. At the heart of every conspiracy theory is a sliver of truth—a kernel that you know is true, and that allows the doubt to grow, if you let it.

Pharmaceutical companies are not altruistic organisations. They are profit-driven champions of capitalism and have been caught many times in illegal and immoral actions. The extrapolation that we should therefore not trust them to provide safe, effective medicines ignores the innumerable treatments we receive daily that alleviate our lives from the pain and horrors of disease and injuries. Antibiotics, analgesics, chemotherapy, specific treatments for obscure conditions all come from those same compromised sources, but, with the exception of the ‘Wellness’ industry and the anti-vaxxers, nobody has questioned their motives in the past as they are today with the Covid vaccines.

There have been some adverse reactions to the vaccines and some—very few—deaths attributed. The scale is infinitesimally small compared to the deaths caused by Covid, but it’s enough for the anti-vaxxers to run with.

And the growing distrust in government, accelerated by the feckless lies of Donald Trump and the relentless undermining of our institutions and news media, is now coming to the fore, wrapped in a false nationalism and bearing the flag of false righteousness.

In philosophy ‘epistemology’ is the study of knowledge. How can we ‘know’ something is true? What is it to have ‘knowledge’? This is a task that has occupied philosophers for thousands of years, but the notion of ‘justified belief’ has remained consistent. We must believe in a thing, but that belief must be justified by evidence for it to qualify as knowledge.?

Therefore, the justification for the anti-vaxxers and anti-lockdown protestors needs to be examined to determine if they have valid reasons for their beliefs and allows us to evaluate the merits, or otherwise, of their stand.

Skepticism is an important component of this process. You must first question a belief and the underlying assumptions behind that belief in order to determine whether it is valid or not. So, first point to the protestors – it is good to question the dominant narrative.

The dominant narrative in this case is made up of several things that are the core of New Zealand’s response to Covid: Covid is a highly contagious disease with a relatively high mortality rate; border restrictions and lockdowns, combined with masks and social distancing, are effective at preventing spread of the disease; vaccinations that have been developed are safe and effective.

?Are these things true?

?One only has to look at the course of the disease in the US, UK, Brazil, Russia and other countries where late and lax approaches to restrictions on free association in groups have led to runaway infections and deaths. The US witnessed are resurgence after measures were eased; the UK is experiencing increased deaths that have slowly climbed since their ‘Freedom Day’. Israel is the country the anti-vaxxers point to as their cause celebre, now that Sweden is acknowledged as having done a terrible job (15,000 dead in a population not much larger than New Zealand). They had a surge in cases in July despite having a relatively high vaccination rate. As it turns out, the anti-vaxxers prefer not to look at the context and ignore two things: a loosening of restrictions and the arrival of Delta. Combined with a now-known drop in efficacy from vaccination (further ‘proof’ of the pointlessness of getting the vaccine in the first place, because why vaccinate if it only works 2/3rds of the time?) Israel experienced a massive spike in cases and deaths. And, as it happens, with a mass drive for a booster shot and a return to mask mandates, the case numbers and death rates have plummeted in recent days.

Is Covid as bad as some say, with impacts on deaths and our health system? Is preventing death worth the economic cost?

Covid only kills 1% of people who catch it (or, as those who downplay the severity of the pandemic like to say—99% of people recover) and the mortality rate grows exponentially with age and underlying conditions, such as obesity, cancer, auto-immune diseases, or anything that weakens the body’s ability to fight a disease. For many, this means that since they’re young, their chances of getting sick enough to be in hospital or die is slim. For some, it means that the trade off in allowing life as usual with the few who will die is worth it, as they were old or sick anyway.

This also ignores how large numbers work. While 1% seems small, when 1000 people have Covid, that’s equivalent to 10 deaths. When 10,000 are ill, that’s 100 deaths, and when it’s a million people, that’s 10,000 deaths – the same as deaths caused by cancer each year. That level also ignores the 30% who need to be hospitalised, with resulting impacts on other injuries and illnesses and it ignores long Covid—around 30% of all sufferers.

Raw numbers also ignore the personal impact. My dad is 83 and has diabetes. My sister is 59 and has diabetes. My niece has Crohn’s disease and my other niece is celiac. I have a friend who is 47 who is celiac and another who is 55 who is diabetic and celiac together. These people are all vaccinated, but as we know, vaccines are not perfect. All these people are at higher risk and to be perfectly honest, I’m not ready to say good-bye to my dad who still has a few years left in him, or my sister, or my nieces or my friends. It’s also young healthy people who die, too.

In raw terms, 3.25 million people have had two doses and are fully vaccinated. That leaves 1.75 million people roughly, including around 900,000 under 12.

The mortality rate for under 17s is just 0.0186% (US), so if a quarter of kids get Covid that's 42 kids dead (though they can pass it on to older people – parents, teachers, etc., so this isn’t an argument against vaccinating them).

The rest is likely made up of different ages, so if we go with a 25% infection rate for the rest at 2% death rate (higher for 50+, less for under 50s), that's about 4500 deaths. That's also potentially 225,000 cases, with 67,500 needing hospitalisation (30%) and 30% of them needing ICU - 20,250 patients. yes, yes - just projections but none of these numbers make me feel like opening up at current vaccination rates are a good option.

It's all very well to chafe at current restrictions, but the cost of letting loose would be catastrophic.

And what do we know of Vaccine safety? Much has been made of, frankly, ridiculous effects—magnetism, 5G reception, nanobots from Bill Gates. More insidious is the claim that vaccines don’t work and that the potential for harm is enormous. None of these claims are true, and that’s verifiable.?

Anti-vaxxers point to VAERS, the US reporting system for adverse reactions associated with administers of vaccines. The last time I checked was a couple of months ago and it was around 13,500. There have been reports of blood clotting with Astra-Zeneca, one death has been directly associated with the Pfizer vaccine in New Zealand but that death has been referred to the coroner to ascertain what exactly happened.?

The actual rate of blood clotting from the A-Z vaccine is just 1/8th that of the female contraceptive pill, but I bet many of those refusing the vaccine on these grounds are still taking this. Furthermore, the VAERS system reports ALL events, regardless of causation. Someone can have an unrelated heart attack after a dose – not unusual given we have over 3 million doses administered in New Zealand – and that is counted. Someone can have an accident, like falling off a ladder and THAT’S reported as an association. But anti-vaxxers prefer not to look under that particular hood. As I said before, there is a kernel of truth to the claims of risk with the vaccines, but it is infinitesimally small, especially when compared with the risk of long-term illness and death from Covid.

As for efficacy, as I recently pointed out on Twitter to an anti-vaxxer, just because something only protects you 60% of the time is not a good argument for not using it.

Masks also work. A recent study shows masks have a 26% efficacy rate in reducing infections—more if wearing N95 rated masks. https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210624/Mask-wearing-reduces-COVID-19-transmission-significantly-study-finds.aspx

So—to summarise, Covid is real and deadly. It will overwhelm our health system if we let it loose. Vaccines work and are very safe. Lockdowns work and so does wearing masks. In a dynamic situation where the circumstances change by the day, the alternative to the path we’ve followed would be catastrophic.