Design is a 2-4 years race to the bottom

I have no doubt that within the next 2 - 4 years, AI will create beautifully polished brand identities, stunning interfaces, and even fully on-brand executions.

This isn’t speculation, it’s already happening. Was it hard for me to accept? Absolutely.

I’ve spent the past 19 years fully invested in this industry. It’s my entire adult life.

Do I have control over what’s coming? Nope. But I can control how I react to it.

And you should too - if you want to stay ahead, grow, and create a future full of opportunities. Because what comes next? It could be even more exciting.

But first, let’s set the stage.

Before you keep reading, set your emotions aside. Think logically.

Imagine you’re advising your younger self, or your kid if you have one. With this mindset shift, you’ll think more clearly, without bias.

This isn’t about you. It’s about preparing for what’s coming.

Now, let’s get into it.

Why 2-4 Years Is Actually Very Realistic

AI’s progress isn’t linear - it’s exponential growth. What seemed impossible a few years ago is now routine.

Think about it:

• In 2022, AI-generated images were impressive but inconsistent. By 2023, Midjourney and DALL·E could create near-photorealistic visuals. Now, brands are using them in real-world campaigns.
• GPT-3 was mind-blowing - until GPT-4 made it look outdated.
• Each new model builds on the last, learning faster and better than before.

This compounding effect means that what takes years to develop today will take months in the near future.

Another great example? Icon - it creates winning ads in minutes - not weeks. It analyses your content, writes scripts, picks scenes, and builds polished ads with just a few clicks. What used to require an entire creative team now takes one or two people max. That’s 10–20x more efficient.

Peter Thiel and OpenAI’s top execs have invested in it. They see where this is going.

This isn’t a slow transition - it’s an avalanche. And if you’re waiting for "proof" that AI is coming for branding, design, and marketing, you’re already behind.

AI-Driven Workflows: What Will Change?

Let’s get practical. How will workflows evolve?

Let’s take Figma AI as an example. A natural progression looks something like this:

• Wireframes - Its "First Draft" feature expands into fully structured wireframes, covering key workflows. Relume and a few others are already doing a pretty decent job here.
• Revisions - A chat assistant gets added to allow users to provide real-time feedback and pull best practices from APIs and database or knowledge. Users will share concerns (even via voice), and AI will auto-adapt designs accordingly.
• UI Toolkit - Figma AI can generate fully functioning UI toolkits based on brand guidelines provided by the user.
• UI Mockups - New features will let users select a toolkit + brand guidelines and have Figma transform wireframes into polished UI mockups.

Will the results be good? Yes. More than good enough for 90% of companies.

The remaining 10%? They’ll rely on small, elite creative teams to refine and tweak. Deep UX work will still need human input - but with smaller, highly efficient teams working closely with AI and data.

The Consequences: What Happens Next?

The number of people needed to execute design work is shrinking dramatically.

Here’s what that means:

• The price of design services will collapse. When anyone can generate high-quality visuals, pure execution loses its value.
• Mass unemployment of traditional designers. AI won’t replace all creatives, but it will eliminate the need for large design teams.
• Huge demand for strategic thinkers. The real power will shift to those who understand the why, not just the how. Business understanding will become the key differentiator.
• Small, highly efficient teams will dominate. Fewer designers, but those who remain will operate at an elite level.

But this doesn’t mean branding and design are dead. Far from it.

The value isn’t disappearing - it’s shifting.

Right now, most designers focus on execution - crafting visuals, layouts, and interfaces. But the real money will be in understanding business problems, analysing data, and using AI to execute efficiently.

The rise of AI doesn’t mean the end of creativity - it means the rise of the Creative Capitalist. Someone who thinks like a businessperson first, a creative second. Someone who uses data, AI, and deep research to craft smart strategies that drive results. This is the Creative Capitalist, while design is becoming the commodity.

The Future of Branding is Data

Branding is evolving fast. It’s shifting into Brand Intelligence. Execution will be nearly automated, but strategic decision-making will become more valuable than ever.

Here’s what that looks like:

• AI-powered brand research: Scraping massive amounts of competitor data in real-time to analyse market positioning.
• Audience sentiment tracking: Understanding what audiences truly connect with.
• Real-time brand validation: 10x the testing. Implementing dynamic content. Measuring everything in real-time.
• Ongoing brand evolution: Branding moves from static, one-time projects to dynamic, ever-evolving brand ecosystems.

This is where real value will be created - not in execution, but in making smarter, data-driven business decisions.

How the Winners Will Reposition

The agencies and creatives who thrive in this shift will:

• Think like business people. Design alone won’t cut it - you need to understand business models, data, and strategy.
• Use AI to do deep research. Leverage AI tools for market analysis, consumer behaviour insights, and competitive positioning.
• Become problem-solvers, not just designers. AI can execute, but it can’t define the right problem to solve. That’s where humans win.
• Operate with ruthless efficiency. AI will handle execution. Your job is to direct, refine, and optimise for business impact.

In other words: Stop thinking like a designer. Start thinking like a strategic, AI-powered problem-solver.

Yes, research already happens now, but it’s slow and resource-heavy. Soon, it’ll happen at a fraction of the cost, and big companies will pay a premium for fast, effective insights. The value won’t be in execution. It’ll be in how quickly and effectively insights can be turned into high-impact business decisions.

Adapt or Become Obsolete

The next era of branding and design belongs to those who understand the data, not just the visuals.

AI is making execution easy. Design is becoming the commodity.

But making the right strategic decisions? That will always be valuable. And now more than ever.

The question is: Will you be a designer who gets left behind?

Or will you become a Creative Capitalist - someone who understands business, data, creatives and AI? Nope it's not too much - it is what businesses need.

The choice is yours.

This post first appeared on FNORM.com, where I write about building brands that thrive in an era of rapid globalisation, AI, and digital noise. Features are easier than ever to build - brand equity is bloody hard. And about me → ?? Stef - founder and CD at Pony, a branding agency based in London working with some of the fastest-growing tech companies.