Global Population is Shrinking. But Depopulation is not all Good News, Rather it can be Bad

Population is one issue on which we all have a view. Let's take my case. With my grey hairs, I have seen so many highs and lows in my lifetime.

?In the 70’s it was all about population explosion, the inverted red triangle for family planning. Hum Do Hamare Do posters with the inverted red triangle, and the advertisements of Nirodh (well that was a great mystery) were ubiquitous.

?We were not too far from the days when India had to import food to survive, and I remember women knocking on the doors in the afternoon asking for rice froth. All around us were families with three or more kids (we were three too), and our parent's generation was much more (ten along the two trees). So Mathus was well alive, we knew the population bomb was ticking.

?Much later, we learned that while the population did not do the damage we suspected, it was rather done by a goon named Sanjay Gandhi, who garbed as a politician during the emergency and turned it into his pet project. Thousands were forced to undergo “nasabandee” with their understanding as well as consent. And this was abetted, expectedly by the grovelling bureaucracy.

?Things came to some stability in the 90s. Many families did not progress beyond two kids, and many even stopped at one. And by the early 2000s, the narrative translated to “democratic dividend”.

?Improved health and nutrition brought down IMR and MMR dramatically, giving parents confidence about the longevity of their kids (and in a way discouraging buying insurance by having more kids). Also by this time, kids born in the later part of the last century reached late teens/ early twenties, bringing down India’s average age to mid-20s (it is 29 even now). With the developed world aging, the liberalization of the 90s bearing fruits, and industries like IT/ ITeS driving growth, everything about the young population became a potential, not a problem.

?Things have changed much since then. We have not been able to harness the potential of the youth into a reality, and there are many reasons for it. We have pipped China as the most populated country, the world has aged further, and even China has gone back on its one-child policy and encouraged its citizens to have more kids.

?It is now established beyond doubt that large-scale poverty and malnutrition due to population is behind us, and the world is well on its way to being depopulated.

?What does that mean? It means in a large part of the world the population is shrinking, and that part is only increasing. Europe, North America, South East Asia and already well on this path. And soon places like Latin America, and South and West Asia will also join. So much of the population growth in this century will come will come from Africa.

?Why has this happened? Well, the reasons for better health and nutrition have now been joined by more women joining the workforce, the evolving meaning of marriage (or rather companionship), and yes – the high cost of bringing up a kid. People are becoming more aware and responsible, and thinking deeply about their responsibilities as well as capabilities before starting a family and/ or having kids. So here we are – a world with increasingly fewer young people but more of the older ones. And that is no longer only a rich country phenomenon, it is now coming to even middle and low-income countries. We are moving into a world with a decreasing number of young people available to support the older ones, especially ones who have reached the age of infirmity making them unable to work, and may even need active care. Some may think that Artificial Intelligence and Robots will solve this, but that is not the case. Even assuming that technology penetrates every corner of the world (an impossibility given the significance of income and wealth disparities), technology solutions are hard to adopt when age advances. Add to that the emotional and social support, which machines (at least today) are incapable of providing.

?But the biggest challenge is who will pay for the vast geriatric care network that we will need. With the consumption economy in the OECD countries (except for a few exceptions like Japan), the savings is already low. Even in cases where it has been done, the higher life expectancy as we go puts all maths to the test. This includes the best-designed pension/ retirement plans with government and/or corporate underwriting. By the way, pension schemes are rarely well-designed to start with.

?What are we looking at? “The Age of Depopulation Surviving a World Gone Gray” by Nicholas Eberstadt, an article in Foreign Affairs of November/ December 2024 has raised quite a storm. There are many interesting data points and many important questions. It is worth a read.

?Take this graph for example.

The entire world is below the replacement level.

?(Replacement level is the TFR or Total Fertility Ratio of 2.1, which is an average of 2.1 kids by each woman in their child-producing age, typically between 15 to 50 years of age. It is more than 2, taking into account many who will not bear kids, or may not have partners to have kids, especially relevant in patriarchal societies where the sex ratio is below 1).

?Let us look at India. The majority of the country, except the Hindi belt, has now slipped below the replacement levels.

Again India is no exception, and the advantages of being a young nation will slowly run out. For example, when COVID hit us India with only 8% of the population above 65 years, but with a rickety healthcare system fared far better initially than Italy with one of the best health systems in the world but a very aging population.

?All these numbers are now well established, at least for people who believe in data and logic. Of course, the political and social narratives will continue to demonize others, using mostly narratives rather than facts to create fear, othering communities, and in the process gaining political and economic power. But let us keep that aside for the time being, and look at the possible social impacts.

?Some of it is quite obvious and well-discussed. But some are very complex, like as Nicholas Eberstadt raises – will the single kids in China, who are single because the state wanted them to be, be ready to make supreme sacrifices for the country? And the question becomes even more complicated if the sacrifice is called up in a faraway war.

?Just as the world is waking up to the “sexy” discussions about the AI human interface, maybe it is time to wake up to a much more mundane discussion – what happens to a depopulating earth? True it will not happen overnight, true it is not being talked about by the likes of Sam Altman and Elon Musk or Mark Zuckerberg, true it is not visible with a dazzle, but believe me it is real. And it is already here and may catch us well off guard if we don’t start planning now.

?I raise some of the questions that come to me. I am sure you to have your thoughts/ ideas/ questions/ views. I would like to hear about them. Here I go:

1.?????? People are living longer. This means that there will be a significant time in the last phase of life when they are going to be physically weak but mentally agile. Where will they get the care, even if resources are there? Homes are increasingly nuclear, and for the super old age, even the children are old. So will we see a see or sanitoriums in the wealthy countries? Or taking over islands exclusively for such purposes? Or even a “country for old men”?

?Assume that these arrangements, which will typically be funded by a one-time payment of a lifetime of savings coupled with government support, will survive through the lifespan of the occupants, this will only take care of their physical well-being. What happens to mental well-being, which needs much more personalized connection, and will always have huge resource gaps? The mind doesn’t age as much as the body, and the ego survives. The pandemic and populist politics have given us a preview of how minds can be captured and altered if people are free to indulge in rumors and conspiracy theories. Now multiply that by a factor of hundreds of thousands.

?2.?????? The assumption that funds are available even for affluent countries for all practical purposes, is wrong. Economists have already predicted that all the retirement policies across the world are doomed to fail in their lifetime, and we have already seen this in instances like Boeing or auto companies renegotiating their commitments. On top of this, governments are becoming competitively populist – just see in India how the good framework of NPS is being subverted by OROP and a new pension scheme for public sector employees.

?This will only become worse with a concentration of wealth and the advent of technology, with the collapsing middle class and families barely managing, leaving them less and less to save. Also, the capitalist narrative that the poor are poor because they are lazy, and a large number in the middle happy to live with a dream of hitting a jackpot for current struggles, makes us witness record cutbacks on social spending.

?3.?????? The story of the poorer countries is much worse, the depopulation is coming much before income has risen enough to provide a social safety net. So we will have a perfect storm of fewer people to earn the increasing old population, less or no social nets, and possibly a depletion of the youth in case the young migrate out to the richer countries.

?So will have a very large number of people who have very little personal wealth, no private or public fallback option, and are often physically weak – years of suboptimal nutrition, and medicine abuse (the OTC antibiotics are creating a hidden bomb).

?Some may say – what is new? Many old people have always suffered, after all, old age homes are often in the news for the wrong reasons. But what if it happens if they are in millions? If not tackled, some may even turn to crime – look up examples in Korea and Japan for “uncles in crimes”, they are funny but not funny.

?4.?????? Will AI and technology solve this? Yes, there will be an attempt if there is a market. So all the solutions will be towards the wealthy countries, where the efforts will be paid for. However, it has to take care of a very high level of sophistication in the interface, as the end users will often be unable to interface with tech. But it will not solve all the access problems and for sure the mental health challenges – at least shortly.

?The larger issues will be legal. What if some damages are suffered by the person in care? Or even complained about, for whatever reasons? What if the tech goes rogue, or is manipulated? If the humanoid is talking to someone, how foolproof is that wealth will not be siphoned by a “hallucinating” robot? And if that happens, who is responsible and how?

?5.?????? Migration is a dirty word now, even the US elections look poised to be decided on the pores and walls of the border. But the emerging global demography suggests otherwise, the rapidly depopulating countries will need youth from other parts to keep the economy running.

?What happens if large-scale migration happens? Assume that people can move across borders as freely as money (may not be the best example anymore with Russia being out of SWIFT). Will all the young from poorer countries migrate to the rich ones? How will they integrate the new countries? How will be the composite culture, and the narratives of the culture purists? How will they provide the more intricate tasks like emotional support, assuming robots do the physical ones like driving and dishwashing? This will be aggravated by the education and language gaps in many cases.

?And what about the hollowing out of the youth of the countries being left behind? It has happened before, like some of the smaller states of the USSR like Latvia lost almost half its population who moved out for greener pastures. Close-home Keralites going to the Gulf, people in UP and Bihar going for farm labor, and Kolkatans moving to Bengaluru and Gurgaon have created similar situations.

Even the ones who will stay back may not be the best, as a large number of them will be from the economically and/ or socially deprived sections, and did not get a chance to emigrate. With an entire generation of men globally feeling left out with no clear goals, and cheap social media access providing an escape from reality, the hard task of life in real life may hit many hard.

?With people not earning and doing the heavy lifting, many of these countries and places may well turn out to be veritable sanitoriums – with folks just waiting to cross the Rubicon. And wishing the end came sooner than later.

?I was once told by someone about Salt Lake (or Bidhannagar), founded in the 50s but attained vibrancy in the 80s when the city’s elites looked for a cozy corner to reside. Now it is a desolate place, rows of houses along well-designed lanes, housing the old whose children have migrated out. Yes, they have the place and the supplies but lack company.

Mostly keeping to themselves because of infirmity and life lived independently, many or just counting their days. And when they are gone, there is a flutter on the WhatsApp groups with fond memories, and possibly near and dear ones coming together to celebrate the life lived. However, I hear that increasingly children from far-off places are calling up an agency to manage the last rites, especially if the departed is the last member of his / her generation.

Old age is fun when love, care, and necessities are met. But with emerging trends in life, lives, and death – it will change globally. And if not thought today, it may be on us faster than we think, and possibly with many implications we may not like.

It’s a wake-up call.

References:

“The Age of Depopulation Surviving a World Gone Gray” By?Nicholas Eberstadt

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/age-depopulation-surviving-world-gone-gray-nicholas-eberstadt

?Naidu & Stalin's push for more babies in AP & TN: A new population crisis with global implications

https://youtu.be/W4dpJ5BWISk?si=QkqP971A4vLqm8RH