Depending on Technology: reflections on 2021 and prediction for 2022

As a guest of Huawei UK, I was invited with other industry thought leaders Dave Coplin and Helen Duncan to discuss our reflections on 2021 and predictions for 2022. In this article and over a series of three podcast episodes we look firstly at the impact of technology in 2021 and 2022 (episode 1: live here) and then in a two-part follow up we focus in particular on innovation, collaboration, and inspiration (episodes 2: live here and episode 3 to be aired soon)

Whether you realise it or not we are already more reliant on technology and more interconnected than ever before - and thus probably more vulnerable as well. This was evident to many in particular this year when we had to rely on connectivity and collaboration technologies to switch to working and learning from home during the pandemic. However, 2021 also saw the largest ever number of cyber and ransomware attacks, exposing the extent to which we are truly vulnerable.

The single most important recent technological advance was actually the vaccine - produced in record time, saving millions of lives and, despite scaremongering, doing so safely. Connectivity and collaboration technologies probably came a close second. Many of us may have been unfamiliar with Zoom or Teams before the lockdown. Now even our children have mastered these platforms. And these tools, along with all the systems that we have logged into from home are all hosted in the cloud. Indeed, while the shift from on-premise to cloud systems has been ongoing, it accelerated rapidly in 2021 and cloud was probably the biggest unsung hero during the pandemic, working quietly in the background to support everything that we needed and relied upon.

As our focus shifts to Christmas and the year ahead, I don’t expect us to see anything like the massive shift in working or in technology use that we saw in 2021, nor do I see any big new technologies emerging. Instead, I predict that we will see further progress in integration and automation, as well as a greater focus on providing meaningful protection.

I have always been a massive advocate for seeking to strike the right balance between ‘meaningful protection’ (cybersecurity, privacy, digital ethics, etc) and ‘the maximization of economic and social value’ (AI, cloud, digital transformation, innovation, etc).?

Protection

Recent whistleblower testimony exposed alarming results of internal research conducted by one particular social media giant, but much of the research lacked empirical rigour. In reality, time spent on "digital media" has been found to be largely harmless. It aids the development of digital skills. However, time spent on “social media” (when used without proper controls) has been linked to depression, especially for young girls.

Researchers need access to data held by the social media giants themselves to do more empirical research on the full range of potential societal harms, including societal polarisation. As adults, we commonly undertake dangerous tasks like driving or drinking (although hopefully not both together) that we would not allow our children to do. Currently, the nominal age for access to social media was lowered from a recommended 16 to just 13 by the social media giants, but due to ineffective enforcement it is common for children of 10 or less to have access. Regulators need to focus on more effective age-gating and may need to insist on restrictions above the age of 13.

Protection also needs to improve against the menace of cybercrime and ransomware. While tools for detection and protection are always improving, we are in a cyber arms race. As fast as the ‘white hats’ use AI to find and patch vulnerabilities, the ‘black hats’ are also using AI, but to find and exploit such vulnerabilities. The balance will only be swung in our favour through collaboration between not only different technology companies but also different law enforcement bodies across the world. As long as the cybercriminals can exploit gaps between technologies and enjoy safe havens from which to operate, we will continue to be plagued by them.

Collaboration

Collaboration will play a critical role both at the micro and macro levels. At the macro level collaboration is required to solve almost all of the greatest challenges that we face. In a video that I did for Huawei in early 2020, I described how our failure to appreciate risk and to address it promptly, in terms of credit risk, had led directly to the financial crisis, and how in terms of cyber risk it was leading to the very explosion in ransomware that we are seeing today. The same principles in my predictions could just as easily have been applied to the failure to deal with health risk ahead of the pandemic and the current response to climate risk with COP26. In all these areas, a greater appreciation of the risk, swifter action to address it and greater collaboration to overcome it would and could have saved the day. As many of these major global risks continue to play out, it remains to be seen whether we have learned from these lessons and whether truly meaningful collaboration is possible

Integration and automation

At a micro-level collaboration technologies have become a part of our everyday life, as we work either from home or in an increasingly hybrid manner. While we are unlikely to see breakthrough new technologies in this arena, we will see continued advances in both integration and collaboration. In a recent podcast for Huawei, I gave the example of sales teams or professional services staff automatically recording their telephone calls so that these can then be retained for audit purposes. The recording can also be integrated with CRM systems, such that if you also add automated transcription and keyword search, this would enable teams to keep records of all their calls without the need to take notes. It would also allow them to review recent calls with clients before speaking to them again as well as to apply analytics across the interactions with each client and also across groups of clients. AI can then be used to draft reports or suggest actions and services for each client. Eventually, AI will also be used across client groups or market segments to spot wider trends and develop and refine new services.

Connectivity

Such advances in integration and automation will be dependent on greater connectivity and intelligence. IoT devices across everything from healthcare and industrial implementations to smart cities will provide richer data sets. At the same time, 5G and Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites will provide more widespread access to broadband than ever before. And ever greater processing power in personal devices as well as on edge networks and in central cloud data centres will allow us to do more with these data sets and so enable ever greater innovation. It all depends on technology.