Demystifying Brexit for Global Mobility

BIG Brexit news today.

So I punched “Brexit” into Amazon. Over 4,000 books showed up. 

Pretty impressive for something that only became news 3 and a half years ago. An average of around 3 books published on Brexit every single day since June 2016.

But it gets even more overwhelming. A quick Google search of “Brexit” reveals 487 million results. “Brexit and mobility” turns up just shy of 16 million.

So, trying to read up on Brexit and what it means for global mobility can feel like you’ve been parachuted into a lecture on quantum field theory.

This is to say that there’s a serious heap of background knowledge, context and essential reading to get your head around before it starts to make sense.

Over the last the few weeks, I’ve spent a fair bit of time doing heavy-lifting when it comes to reading about Brexit and mobility, and I’m going to summarize my key findings here. 

Hopefully, you can get some value from it.

And, as many of you won’t have had the time or energy to follow Brexit in any detail at all, I’m going to start with the very basics as they relate to mobility in Europe.

(And I’m not Professor on International Law, these are based on what I have read, so I am very open to correction and feedback.)

1. Now that the British parliament has passed the withdrawal agreement bill. Brexit should legally come into force on January 31st after it has been ratified by the EU.
2. This is not the end of Brexit however, but actually, it will signal the start of a long series of negotiations on the “Future Relationship” between the UK and the European Union.
3. This relationship is still to be determined and what it consists of will have the biggest say on mobility between the UK and the EU. At the moment it’s still all to play for. 
4. Although freedom of movement in its current form will probably end, movement could still be relatively frictionless with the introduction of a system similar to ESTA (the Electronic System for Travel Authorization or Visa Waiver Program EU and UK citizens can easily travel to the US under).
5. At the other end of the scale, a visa system could be introduced for EU citizens, restricting mobility between the UK and the EU. There has been talk of an “Australian-style points-based immigration” system for the non-EU immigration to the UK, this could also be applied to EU citizens.
6. Any agreement on mobility between the UK and the EU is likely to be reciprocal.
7. So far, most of the movement of EU citizens out of the UK has been on a voluntary basis. Corporate relocation of staff to mainland Europe has been lower than expected, although this may change in the coming months and years.
8. EU migration to the UK is at its lowest level since 2013, although it is still a net positive, as the number entering outnumber those leaving.
9. Frankfurt, Dublin and Paris are all positioning themselves as potential rivals to post-Brexit London. All would represent “gateways to the EU”.
10. Mobility and talent teams in the UK and the EU cannot currently have full confidence that the automatic legal right to work of UK citizens in the EU and vice-versa will continue.
11. Most indications suggest there will still be a relatively high flow of labor between the UK and the EU, this is even more like if a reciprocal agreement is made that forgoes the needs for working visas on both sides.
12. A “No Deal” Brexit is the biggest threat to mobility between the UK and the EU, with almost 1 in 5 businesses planning to move all or part of their operations overseas in this scenario.
13. This “No Deal” Brexit is a more remote possibility after Prime Minister Boris Johnson secured a parliamentary majority last month. This makes it likely his deal will pass through parliament and the “Future Relationship” will be negotiated by the end of 2021.

Key Brexit & Mobility News to Look Out For:

• Any announcement of an agreement on the legal status of workers and the rights of UK citizens to remain in the EU and vice-versa.
• Any signs that a “No Deal” Brexit is becoming a stronger possibility could lead to major corporations ramping up their plans to relocate HQs and employees to mainland Europe. 
• An agreement on whether workers who are not in compliance with any new immigration laws will be allowed a grace period. 
• A concrete development on whether the UK will actually implement immigration measures that are pro-mobility and will benefit MNCs.