The Demographics Coming to Get our Jobs
There are some interesting conversations going on these days regarding demographics. Some folks assume any conversation about demographics doesn’t concern them today. Demographics is about long term trends, anyway, right? I’m stuck in that small but growing group that have are seeting some tends, put in place years some years ago, are starting to bite us today.
Early in September the WSJ reported on the recent jobs report. See Hiring softened this summer, teeing up Fed rate cut, September 6, 2024. In the print edition was the following graphic:
What struck me was the profile of job gains and losses. Healthcare showed the largest gain. Restaurants and art showed good growth. Wholesale grew slowly, and retail and manufacturing contracted. A thought came to mind, based on my reading of long-set-in-motion demographic trends: What if this profile is analogous with how long-term employment will change over the next 20 years?
It might sound an extreme thought, but consider the data.
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This has some challenging impacts. Smaller working population means less tax take for indebted governments. Contracting child and youth populations mean we need less education services and infrastructure. As populations continue to age, we will see contracting consumer and retail markets for young populations and increasing demand for what older folks need and want to spend their money on.
That’s why the jobs report profile looks very interesting to me. It actually looks representative of what we might expect overall in the next 20 to 30 years. Are our collective business plans taking this into account? Should they? Are such demographic considerations with worrying us sufficiently today?
It turns out that politics and demographics is already starting to connect: https://www.edweek.org/leadership/as-enrollment-declines-districts-consider-closing-schools/2024/01
This is not something to ignore or put off. Demographics do impact us today. They do so as policies put in place 30-60 years ago are impacting us today. In some areas there is little we can do to change these trends. But we need to think long-term now, in order to take short-term actions today, that will address the long-term trends in the future. If we ignore them, we may run out of runway to effect any kind of change.
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5 个月Thanks for sharing Andrew. This is great insight. The edweek.org article is alarming.
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5 个月Great area to analyze, Andrew! And political implications run both directions. For example, look at Japan's demographics, and the economic and social consequences of foreign immigration limits coupled with their declining birth rates.