A demographer’s view on climate politics

We will not worry about the physical details of climate change or ecosystems in this piece but examine environmental concerns through the demographic lens and focus on communication.

The scientific community and all environmentalists, from moderates to extremists in the field, agree that as humans we impact our environment. It matters what and how much we take out of the ground and what and how much we pump into our atmosphere, soils and rivers. Our actions impact the planet we live on.

If virtually all relevant experts agree on the basics, why don’t all politicians and business leaders rally around the cause?

As environmentalists we must accept that our country’s collective economic success matters. Environmental issues will only be at the top of the national agenda if families can live in comfort. In the last two decades the Australian middle class has been squeezed. The cost of living grew at a much faster rate than wages, homeownership is but a dream for many, households carry way more debt and about one in twelve workers (about a million people) holds more than one job. If the environmental movement isn’t taking the concerns of the struggling lower and middle class seriously, we will continue to see environmentalism to be a politized issue.

The Australian habit of viewing environmentalism as an issue of the political left is seriously slowing any meaningful climate action. Conservatism and environmentalism are viewed as opposing world views in Australia. This is utter nonsense.

In Germany it was a conservative government that decided to phase out nuclear and coal – a move unthinkable for conservative Australians as of now.

In Norway the nations huge fossil fuel reserves are happily exploited, and its profits channelled into a sovereign wealth fund that invests into renewable energies – a move currently unthinkable for progressive Aussie leftists.

Conservative Australians don’t react well to having scientific facts thrown in their direction with the smug undertone of intellectual superiority. Also avoid language that is ridiculing, shaming or moralizing. Instead point out the success of the Norwegian model. Viewing Norway as a successful model however requires the left to embrace a pro-business, capitalist world view. Not an easy ask as this means the perception of one’s own intellectual superiority must be left behind.

The de-politization of something as crucial as the environment must take national (and personal!) priority. The political opposition is not the enemy.

There is an increasing generational element to the climate discussion. Na?ve poorly informed young folks want to save the planet and moralize and shame ignorant, profit-hungry, poorly informed old folks who don’t give a damn about the planet’s future as long as they have a nice retirement.

If only it was so simple. People are much more nuanced in their worldviews. The attached graphic shows one way to add a bit more nuance into the discussion but is still a simplified breakdown of Australian society. We look into the future, into the year 2029. This is the first year that every Baby Boomer is officially of retirement age and the reigns are being handed over to the next generation.

Generation X is a small but practically minded generation that introduced the concepts of work-life balance and gender equality. Most top positions in the coming decade will be held by Xers. The leaders of the coming decade aren’t members of Greta Thunberg’s Gen Z but their Xer parents. Messaging around the issue of climate change must be pragmatic and solution focussed. Moralising will not yield any positive results. I suspect the Australia of 2029, as led by Gen X, will be much more open to hyper-pragmatic climate change solutions like the Norwegian model.

Now is a great time to patiently prepare the ground for a pragmatic approach to climate change. Invest your money, time and career into technologies and investment strategies that favour renewable technologies. One way of ensuring that we have enough capital for such technologies is, counter-intuitively, to leverage profits of the Australian fossil fuel industry by following the path that Norway prepared.

I originally published this piece for the Geography Teachers’ Association of Victoria "Interaction" magazine. I am regularly working with the GTAV as I believe the study of geography is a great lens through which to view global problems. Lately I have been featured in one of their videos showcasing career paths that geographers have taken.

#climatechange #energy #generations #demographics