Democracy at Cross Roads in Year 2024

2024 is a remarkable year for democracy, as more than half of the world's population will have a chance to vote in national elections. According to various sources, at least 64 countries (plus the European Union) are scheduled or expected to hold elections this year, making it the biggest election year in history.? It’s the year of the vote and the year democracy goes to trial. Countries that are home to nearly half of the world population will pick their governments in elections in 2024 – something that has never happened in a single year before. Starting with Bangladesh on January 7, 2024 which has been boycotted by the opposition parties and start seems not to be a good one. The polls include seven out of the world’s 10 most populous nations: India, the United States, Indonesia, Pakistan, Russia, South Africa, Ukraine, Taiwan, Mexico and European Union.

Some of these elections will be closely watched by the international community, as they could have significant implications for global peace, security and development. Here are some of the key elections and their potential outcomes that could impact world stability in 2024.

United States: The most anticipated and consequential election of the year is undoubtedly the U.S. presidential race, which will pit incumbent President Joe Biden against former President Donald Trump, who is seeking a second term after being impeached twice and losing the popular vote in 2020. The outcome of this election will not only shape the future of American democracy, but also affect U.S. foreign policy, trade, climate action, human rights and alliances around the world. A Trump victory could unleash what the Economist recently described as "the biggest danger to the world" of 2024, as he could undermine multilateral institutions, escalate tensions with China and Iran, and erode democratic norms at home and abroad.?

India: The world's largest democracy and second most populous country will hold its 18th general election in April-May, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeking a third consecutive term. Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces a fragmented opposition and challenges from regional parties, especially in states like Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. The election will be a test of Modi's popularity and performance amid the COVID-19 pandemic, economic slowdown, social unrest and border disputes with China and Pakistan. The outcome will also have implications for India's role in regional and global affairs, as well as its relations with its neighbors and major powers.

One of the major party in India is Congress and its leader Rahul Gandhi said that polls can be rigged through social media, and that if social media companies want, they can make any party win an election. Without naming any party, he also said that communal violence has been planted as a strategic weapon to cause disharmony in society by one ideology and its leaders. Mr Gandhi made these remarks while interacting with civil society members led by activists Medha Patkar and G G Parikh during the Bharat Jodo Yatra. Read full story here https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/indian-elections-can-be-rigged-through-social-media-if-rahul-gandhi-3527547

Running against Modi’s Hindu majoritarian Bharatiya Janata Party is a coalition of 28 parties, called?the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) . INDIA is led by the main opposition, the?Indian National Congress ?party spearheaded by Mr Rahul Gandhi, whose father (Rajiv Gandhi), grandmother (Indira Gandhi) and great-grandfather (Jawaharlal Nehru) were all prime ministers. Over the decade of the BJP government’s rule, the country has seen what the ruling party’s critics call an erosion of democracy. Academic and writer Apoorvanand told Al Jazeera that autonomous institutions including the election commission have lost their autonomy.

In December 2023, an?investigation ?revealed that the Indian government was likely surveilling high-profile journalists using the?Pegasus spyware . Earlier in the same month, 141 opposition lawmakers were suspended from parliament. The shrinking space for the opposition and attempts to coerce the media have emerged as prominent issues in these elections alongside a struggling?economy , rising?unemployment ?and?attacks ?by Hindu nationalists on religious minority communities. Parts of the country, such as the northeast state of Manipur, have been on fire for months after ethnic clashes broke out in May 2023. Meanwhile, the far-right Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) – the ideological parent of the BJP – has increasingly been able to influence the nation’s textbooks, sparking concerns that the next generation of Indians could imbibe myth over science and history, and bigotry over secular values. “These elections are very crucial because this is the only change to revive democracy in India,” Apoorvanand said. You can read full story here: ?https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/4/the-year-of-elections-is-2024-democracys-biggest-test-ever

Russia and Ukraine: Two neighboring countries that have been locked in a conflict since 2014 will hold presidential elections in March, with both leaders facing domestic and external pressures. In Russia, President Vladimir Putin is expected to win another six-year term, extending his rule until 2030. However, his approval ratings have declined in recent years due to economic woes, corruption scandals, political repression and public discontent. Putin's main challenger is Alexei Navalny, a prominent opposition leader and anti-corruption activist who survived a poisoning attempt in 2020 and was subsequently jailed on politically motivated charges. Navalny's supporters have vowed to continue their protests and boycott the election, which they claim will be rigged. In Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky is seeking re-election amid a fragile ceasefire with Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine, a stalled reform agenda, a struggling economy and a COVID-19 crisis. Zelensky's main rivals are former President Petro Poroshenko and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, both of whom accuse him of being weak and inexperienced. The outcome of these elections will affect the prospects of resolving the Ukraine-Russia conflict, as well as the relations between both countries and the West.?

Indonesia: The world's third largest democracy and fourth most populous country will hold its first simultaneous presidential and legislative elections on February 14, following a constitutional amendment in 2019 that aligned the electoral cycles. President Joko Widodo is ineligible to run for a third term, leaving the race open for new contenders. Among them are former Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, who lost to Widodo twice in 2014 and 2019; former Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, who is widely respected for her economic management; Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan, who is popular among conservative Muslims; and Sandiaga Uno, a wealthy businessman and former vice governor of Jakarta. The election will be a test of Indonesia's democratic resilience and diversity, as well as its ability to balance its domestic development needs with its regional and global aspirations.

Taiwan: The self-governed island that China claims as its territory will hold its 16th presidential election on January 13, amid rising tensions across the Taiwan Strait. President Tsai Ing-wen is seeking a second term after winning a landslide victory in 2020 on a platform of defending Taiwan's sovereignty and democracy against Beijing's threats and interference. Her main challenger is Eric Chu, the chairman of the Kuomintang (KMT) party, which advocates closer ties with China and opposes Taiwan's independence. The election will be a referendum on Taiwan's future and identity, as well as a flashpoint for potential conflict between China and the U.S., which supports Taiwan's security and autonomy.

Pakistan: Election voting for its national legislature planned on February 8, 2024. Pakistan has been facing a turbulent political landscape since its former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who was elected in July 2018, was removed in a no confidence vote in April 2022 backed by US interference. An intense crackdown on his party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and political activists has sparked concerns about the credibility of the election, and the role of the country’s all-powerful military establishment in it. The country is currently run by a caretaker government, led by interim Prime Minister.??Pakistan has a population of more than 241 million people, and 127 million registered voters, according to data released by the election commission in September 2023. Conducting free and fair elections could bring back Imran Khan which powerful military don’t want to happen so it is going to be a big test for democracy.

South Africa: Between May and August, South Africa is expected to hold its seventh national election since the end of apartheid in 1994. South Africa has a population of 60 million and about 27 million registered voters. Since 1994, the African National Congress (ANC) has held uninterrupted power, but supporters fear the party’s votes will fall short of the 50 percent needed to win this year. Led by President Cyril Ramaphosa, the ANC’s support has dipped to 45 percent, according to an October 2023 poll by the Social Research Foundation. Corruption scandals linked to government officials have become frequent while Ramaphosa also?pardoned ?his predecessor Jacob Zuma who refused to testify about corruption and state capture during his tenure.

Mexico: Mexico is gearing up for its largest-ever election on June 2 that could see it elect?a woman ?as its president for the first time. Mexico has a population of about 129 million and approximately 96 million registered votes. For the first time, all 32 states in Mexico will be holding elections concurrently while 20,000 positions including the presidency, congressional seats, governorships and local offices will be filled by contesting candidates. Better known by his initials – AMLO – Mexican President?Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador ?from the Morena party currently leads the nation but the country has a one-term limit. Claudia Sheinbaum , a scientist and former Mexico City mayor, is the new face of Morena and also a frontrunner with a significant lead in polls. She has pledged to address challenges such as gang violence and to try and use nearshoring – a rising trend of the US relocating business operations to Mexico to cut costs – to help the country’s economy. Xochitl Galvez , a senator with Indigenous roots who represents the National Action Party, has set out to challenge Morena’s dominance and is campaigning on the promise to combat violence.

AMLO’s term has been the bloodiest in Mexico’s history, with a?record number of murders . The so-called “war on drugs”, which was initiated three presidential terms ago, has failed to reduce violence. The next government will be tested on whether it will continue with a militarised strategy or explore alternative, less punitive policies. Deep inequalities in access to quality healthcare and education persist.

Conclusion

These are just some of the many elections that will take place in 2024, each with its own dynamics and implications. As the world emerges from the COVID-19 pandemic and faces new challenges and opportunities, the choices made by voters in these elections will shape the direction and destiny of their countries and the world for years to come.

A feeling of growing disempowerment has led to political cynicism and a disconnection of the general public from the body politic. Rates of public participation and confidence in institutions and traditional parties have plummeted. With popular anger on the rise, populism has made a spectacular (re)entry on the political scene. What is equally a cause for concern is that democracy is on the defensive in its Western heartland. The Economist’s Democracy Index in 2016 downgraded the United States, the beacon of democracy for much of the modern era, to a “flawed democracy”.?Deep disenchantment with democracy is sweeping Eastern and Central Europe as Hungary and Poland dismantle constitutional rights and civil liberties. Populist leaders in Western Europe (Nigel Farage, Marine Le Pen, Beppe Grillo, Geert Wilders, Frauke Petry) have followed suit.

The twentieth century witnessed the triumph of democratic capitalism in the industrialized West, with widespread popular support for both free markets and representative elections. Today, that political consensus appears to be breaking down, disrupted by polarization and income inequality, widespread dissatisfaction with democratic institutions, and insurgent populism.

Global freedom faces a dire threat. Around the world, the enemies of liberal democracy—a form of self-government in which human rights are recognized and every individual is entitled to equal treatment under law—are accelerating their attacks. Authoritarian regimes have become more effective at co-opting or circumventing the norms and institutions meant to support basic liberties, and at providing aid to others who wish to do the same. In countries with long-established democracies, internal forces have exploited the shortcomings in their systems, distorting national politics to promote hatred, violence, and unbridled power. Those countries that have struggled in the space between democracy and authoritarianism, meanwhile, are increasingly tilting toward the latter. The global order is nearing a tipping point, and if democracy’s defenders do not work together to help guarantee freedom for all people, the authoritarian model will prevail.

Global freedom faces a dire threat. Around the world, the enemies of liberal democracy—a form of self-government in which human rights are recognized and every individual is entitled to equal treatment under law—are accelerating their attacks. ?Interesting paper by freedom house can be read here: https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2022/global-expansion-authoritarian-rule

“All these elections that are taking place in 2024 are going to be confronting some version of attacks against democracy, attacks against electoral integrity,” says Tony Banbury, the president and chief executive of the International Foundation for Electoral Systems, which provides technical assistance for elections in more than 145 countries. “Without that kind of proactive work to defend democracy, there is going to be backsliding.”

There can be no democracy without truth. There can be no truth without controversy, there can be no change without freedom. Without freedom there can be no progress. (Andrew Young)