Demand Driven Agriculture Part 2

 In Part -1 I have tried to explain How Demand driven Agriculture can be modeled for the global scenario. But its building block lies in effectively creating and managing a Demand Driven System in Local environment.

I have also received the comments from multiple experts that Data is the Key to achieve this desired system of demand driven Agriculture, and I completely agree with, more the accuracy of the data better the results to save the farmers and soil and that is the objective, after all.

Let's consider a Market at Mandal or Taluka (Sub-district) place, As this is the place where majority of trade takes place. There can be different structures based on the administration and local dynamics of agricultural trade.

Each Market has specific absorption capacity of crop yield based on the taste, local consumption and trade. This market absorption capacity may not have been quantified in past but can be estimated with approaches below

1. Previous data of arrival from the farmers and traders if recorded with price variation in it and its should be compared with the cost of cultivation. ( Every Market there are two sources for supply a. Local farmers b. Traders who brings the commodity from a distant place)
2. If there is no previous data, the recording can start from day one.

Guesstimate can be done by understanding the market and its serving periphery. Lets take there is population of 25,000 gets the supply from this market. And the average diet of a person is 400 gram per meal and then it is to be fragmented to the component level by taste. ( too complex, know )

Based on the data of the market arrivals and absorption a price index by crop and market can be generated.

Current Scenario - As of now no visibility to demand thus Price index is not determinable and is as indicated by the chart below, and performs randomly by bleeding farmers and consumers intermittently.

For around 65% of the time farmers are getting the Market price below INR 10, of which majority time (around 40% of year) they are even fetching price below INR 5. Here just think of for how farmers are subsidizing tomatoes to we procure.

Its the only around 15% of the time farmers are fetching price above INR 15.

Scenario when less area is sown and demand is high in market for few time slots in year farmers fetch the price, in such scenarios the customers budget goes for a toss, even governments gets toppled, remember the onion fiasco.

Reverse of the above when when more number of hectares are sown than required by market

We have to achieve an ideal scenario of equilibrium of demand and supply with farmers gaining optimal profit over the cost of cultivation with data driven approach.

As evident from the data here is time to learn and create demand driven ecosystem to bring the justice to farmers, lets not just write off by saying its too complex. Today in India and countries where there is support system for farmers, linking farmers with schemes and this approach can be bring the results in quick-time. The recently kick-started Kisan Samman Nidhi Yojana is to good to go with.

These local models need to coordinated to build the data model for the regional, national and then international scenarios to achieve the food security that we are expecting for 10 billion tummies by 2050.

 I am keen to help if any Govt, startup interested in working on this aspects in the interest of farmers and sustainability of soil.

Well here, the education and awareness to farming community is critical factor for success, each farmer must be part of this exercise before they when they are planning for the crop.

One thing for sure until all farmers get it right, this system will partially work and for sure it will be great achievement.

With this Demand driven approach a billion dollar question will arise. what farmers will do when they will identify that what quantity I am growing is actually not required by the Market.

The crop allocation to farmers can happen by soil type, water availability, weather and int that should be on the lottery system or first come first serve basis.

Part 1 can be located here https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/demand-driven-agriculture-part-1-subhash-lode/

Author Subhash Lode has also conceptualised free app for #farmers to know the profitability by crop can be located here https://goo.gl/GrDPzm