A Delphi Approach to Forecasting CRE Trends
Forbes Rutherford
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The Toronto and Global Market Property Forums ended on December 5th. A day later, Canada announced its unemployment rate was 6.5%, while on the same day, the U.S. reported a gain of 227,000 jobs in November. These job figures, while insightful, only scratch the surface. My post-forum talks with U.S. and Canadian industry connections reveal a sense of urgency and a need for immediate action beyond the data points.
A Neighbourly Contrast
The attitude of my American friends, especially those from red states, regardless of political allegiance, range from cautious optimism to outright euphoria. The American people are detached from the machinations of multi-polarity foreign affairs and are directing their prospects toward the re-emergence of their domestic MAGA economy.
In contrast, my Canadian friends were cautious about their prospects. Now, these friends are all transactional entrepreneurs. Each lives by their wits, measuring the risk/reward of their efforts daily. They are my sounding board, so I asked about the next twelve months.
The View South Presents a Promising Landscape
As in any market correction, commercial real estate is the first to enter a correction and the last to come out of it. As before, every old response is new again. The older ones, of which I'm one, recalled their struggles in Q4/1989-94 and 2008-09. For them, the next twelve months involve brushing off their tested skills in managing and restructuring assets in operational and financial distress. However, forward-thinking investment firms, agile developers, and flexible talent are exploring prospects in southern markets unburdened by regulatory hurdles or the looming threat of stagflation.
The view south presents a promising landscape. Canada should immediately expect many of its brightest deal-making corporations and talent to head south as the Trump bump takes hold. Indeed, prescient savvy lenders, acquisitors and residential developers began their trek to the United States post-COVID-19 as the Canadian dollar devalued, and the decline in Canada's standard of living became apparent to any sober observer.
Tripping in the Tube
To get to this rendezvous with my sounding board, I took the 6:00 p.m. subway, surrounded by private sector workers heading home after a long day. The emotional and physical exhaustion drawn on the faces of these passengers was unmistakable. A heavy air of resignation hung over them. It was clear that most were merely getting by, burdened by the reality of working twice as hard to keep half as much. A nation cannot encourage productivity by eroding its productive citizens' quality of life to uphold abstract social policies, convoluted regulations, and the weight of excessive public entitlements and debt.
Join Us in Forecasting Tomorrow's Trends
Each year, Rutherford International canvasses our core connections' opinions on the direction of various political, economic, social, and technological issues facing the commercial real estate industry. This Delphi approach to measuring the "Wisdom of the Crowd" has had past success forecasting the emergence of near-term and off-the-radar trends.
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Crowdsourcing Industry Knowledge & Opinion
With the expected socio-economic turmoil in G20 countries through 2025/26, we're contacting our network of CRE senior executives and thought leaders again. We're expanding our respondent dataset by inviting tier-one executives, thought leaders and influencers to participate in our 25/26 PESTLE survey, which aims to gather insights on the factors that will shape the future of the commercial real estate industry.
Knowledge drawn from the 'Wisdom of the Crowd' is invaluable, and I'm eager to expand the respondent dataset further. Your participation will significantly shape the study's conclusions. If you believe your industry knowledge, combined with the insights of your peers, can play a pivotal role in shaping our understanding of the factors that will define the future, I encourage you to get in touch.
Your participation will help shape the study's conclusions, and you will gain exclusive access to:
Key Benefits of Participation
Please complete this embedded registration form by December 15, 2024, to confirm participation. Once you've registered, you'll receive an email or a link to my survey. Early executive registrants will receive complimentary access to the latest research on personality type, its influence on a leadership style and its correlation to career success.
We hope you will join us in contributing to a more informed and resilient future.
Sincere regards,
Forbes Rutherford, Founder