The Delicacy of Democracy: Pakistan in 2024

The original article by Amir Jahangir is published for the Annual Report 2023 of the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS)

by Amir Jahangir

As Pakistan approaches the highly anticipated general elections scheduled for February 8, 2024, the political landscape is marked by a complex interplay of factors, reflecting a nation at a critical juncture. Against the backdrop of recent political tumult, legal controversies, and a shifting balance of power between civilian and military institutions, the upcoming electoral process holds serious significance. The unfolding dynamics, characterized by the return of key political figures, the dissolution of established parties, and concerns over the integrity of the democratic process, underscore the need for a vigilant and informed electorate. As the country prepares to cast its votes, the outcome of these elections will undoubtedly shape the trajectory of Pakistan's political future and its ongoing quest for democratic stability.

In the lead-up to Pakistan's forthcoming general elections in February, a recurring narrative unfolds, echoing a familiar political cycle. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan finds himself incarcerated with an extensive list of legal charges, while the return of three-time Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, previously convicted and disqualified, is facilitated with the support of the military—an influential entity often referred to as the establishment in Pakistan.

Such oscillations in political fortunes are not unprecedented in the nation's history. The distinction in the present scenario lies in the intensity with which the state has pursued legal action against Imran Khan and his political party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), leading to a significant erosion of its influence. Following Khan's removal from power through a vote of no-confidence in April 2022, his direct confrontation with the military, attributed to his ouster, further strained democratic norms. This unprecedented clash has evolved into a zero-sum existential struggle, and habitually, the military appears to be prevailing. Consequently, Pakistan's democratic fabric is considerably weakened, casting doubt on the prospects of a free and fair election in February.

Imran Khan's legal challenges and the dissolution of PTI, Imran Khan, despite being the nation's most popular politician, has been detained since August on charges related to the inappropriate use of state gifts. Although he secured a suspension of his sentence shortly afterward, he remains under judicial remand for a separate state secret case. Khan alleges that the diplomatic cable involved in this case serves as evidence of a U.S. conspiracy to remove him from office, pointing to strained relations with the military as the underlying cause.

The Supreme Court of Pakistan approved the bail of former PTI chairman Imran Khan and Vice Chairman Shah Mahmood Qureshi in the cipher case. The apex court accepted the PTI leaders' petition against the high court verdict in the case. They have been granted bail in exchange for bail bonds of Rs1 million each.

A three-member bench of the Supreme Court, headed by Acting Chief Justice of Pakistan Sardar Tariq Masood and comprising Justice Mansoor Ali Shah and Justice Athar Minallah, heard the petitions of Imran Khan and Shah Mahmood against the Islamabad High Court verdict in the cipher case.

The state contended that Khan mishandled the cipher, leading to a violation of the Official Secrets Act, hastily amended in August. Former Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi, a key figure in Khan's PTI, is also detained in connection with the cipher case, marking a deliberate effort to sideline Khan within the political landscape.

Khan's initial arrest in May triggered widespread protests, some of which escalated to target military installations, prompting a forceful crackdown by the state. The subsequent imprisonment of PTI members, along with coercive measures to compel senior leaders to distance themselves from Khan, has further tilted the civil-military balance, already precarious, in favor of the military.

The Unbalanced Civil-Military Dynamics in the post-Khan era, beginning with the coalition named the Pakistan Democratic Movement, witnessed a concerning regression in the country's democratic norms and a notable expansion of the military's influence over a 16-month period. Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, aligned with the establishment, presided over a series of hastily enacted legislations criticized by the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan for their draconian scope. Amendments to the Official Secrets Act conferred extensive powers to the intelligence agency, allowing raids on mere suspicion, while the Pakistan Army (Amendment) Act of 2023 criminalized criticism of the military and granted it a role in national development and strategic interests.

These legislative maneuvers, executed without substantial debate, underscore the military's augmented powers. The army chief's inclusion in the newly formed Special Investment Facilitation Council, responsible for foreign investment and economic growth, further exemplifies the military's extended reach. The ongoing use of the Official Secrets Act in Khan's cipher case emphasizes the intertwining of legal and political strategies.

The Return of Mian Nawaz Sharif (MNS) After an extended stay in London, Nawaz Sharif returned to Pakistan in October with apparent support from the military. Despite his previous imprisonment on corruption charges, Sharif's anti-establishment stance during his exile shifted upon his brother Shahbaz assuming the prime ministership in April 2022. Sharif's return and the overturning of his convictions, coupled with prominent politicians defecting to his party, indicate the military's backing. Notably, his speech at the Minar-e-Pakistan in Lahore, a politically significant venue, reinforces the endorsement from the right quarters.

While preparations for Sharif's potential return as prime minister are underway, uncertainties surround his electoral performance in a context of changing voter demographics. Shehbaz's government, perceived as controlled by Nawaz from London, faced public disapproval during its 16- month tenure. Shifts in voter preferences, particularly among younger, urban, middle-class demographics favoring Khan's PTI, pose challenges to Sharif's electoral prospects.

Given the extensive pre-poll political interventions, prospects for a free and fair election in February seems dim. Delays in holding provincial assembly elections, along with the perception of a caretaker government appointed by and accountable to the military, raise doubts about the democratic integrity of the upcoming polls.

The prevailing notion is that the election will proceed once Khan has been sidelined, ensuring a favorable outcome for Sharif. However, questions linger over the establishment’s ability to ensure such an outcome without resorting to election-day interference.

The current state of Pakistan's democracy, reaching its nadir since 2008, prompts uncertainties about its further deterioration. The military's ascendancy, exercising decision-making authority and political influence without overt control, signifies a pattern that yields short-term stability at the expense of long-term progress.

Pakistan's military, positioning itself as the country's most competent institution, now holds unprecedented power, reminiscent of its peak in 2008. This concentration of authority, while achieving short-term stability, has historically led to prolonged stagnation. Curiously, Washington, despite its proclaimed commitment to global democracy, has remained conspicuously silent on Pakistan's democratic backsliding. The preference for the military over civilian governments has been evident over the years, shaping the dynamics to the detriment of Pakistan's democratic aspirations.

Pakistan's historical relationship with the United States has often been a barometer signaling significant developments in the region. The ebb and flow of this alliance have mirrored pivotal moments in South Asian geopolitics. Presently, the renewed focus on the prospects of a conflict in the region prompts careful evaluation. The intricate dance between Pakistan and the United States has, in the past, been emblematic of emerging regional shifts, geopolitical realignments, or heightened tensions. The nuanced dynamics suggest that the current scrutiny may indicate an impending development of considerable consequence. Whether it pertains to regional security concerns, diplomatic maneuvers, or strategic partnerships, the evolving relationship between Pakistan and the United States remains a key factor in decoding the broader geopolitical landscape in South Asia.

Imran Khan's attribution of his ouster to the United States, coupled with the military's longstanding status as the preferred partner, underscores the delicate diplomatic balance. As the possibility of further election delays or interference looms, the Biden administration faces a crucial juncture to articulate its stance on democratic principles. However, the delayed response may limit the impact of any intervention, emphasizing the importance of timely and assertive diplomatic engagement in safeguarding democratic values in Pakistan.

Against the backdrop of historical indicators and the recent trip of the Chief of Army Staff, General Syed Asim Munir’s recent visit to the United States, suggests a desire to establish close relationship between Pakistan and the United States, especially during the crucial geopolitical junctures. The recent developments have further heightened attention. The meeting between the Pakistan Army Chief and the commander of the U.S. Central Command underscores the ongoing evaluation of prospects for conflict in the region. The discussions centering on cooperation in regional security matters highlight the nuanced dynamics of the Pakistan-U.S. relationship, which has traditionally served as a diplomatic barometer for significant events in South Asia. As this dialogue unfolds, it becomes increasingly evident that the evolving partnership between Pakistan and the United States will play a pivotal role in shaping the broader geopolitical landscape of the region.

Amidst the evolving landscape of global politics, there is a growing imperative for Pakistan to assume a more geo-economic position. However, the custodians of power within the country exhibit a notable confidence in preserving the longstanding geo-strategic advantage that Pakistan can bring to the table. This dichotomy encapsulates the complex decision-making at the intersection of politics and international relations. While the global context emphasizes the significance of economic engagement and cooperation, the power corridors in Pakistan remain steadfast in valuing the geo- strategic advantages that have historically defined the nation's role. Striking a delicate balance between these two imperatives becomes a pivotal challenge, requiring astute diplomatic navigation and strategic decision-making to position Pakistan optimally in the dynamic theater of global affairs.

This contemplation offers a foresight into the potential role that Pakistan might assume amid the transformative dynamics of its neighboring nations. In the context of an evolving and enlightened Saudi Arabia, a diplomatically recalibrating Iran, a Turkey engaging in more interconnected trade, a stubborn Russia refusing to backdown, and the enduring dominance of China, alongside the dynamics with India, Pakistan finds itself at a crucial nexus. The strategic positioning of Pakistan becomes increasingly nuanced as it navigates relationships with these key regional players. The changing dynamics in the Middle East, coupled with the global influence of China, present opportunities and challenges that demand a comprehensive and forward-looking approach from Pakistan. How Pakistan shapes its role within this intricate geopolitical puzzle will not only impact its national trajectory but also contribute to the evolving narrative of regional and global geopolitics.

Internally, the crux of the challenge lies in navigating the complex interplay between the influential military elite and the fragmented landscape of political parties in Pakistan. The powerful military, historically a significant force in shaping the nation's destiny, holds considerable sway over the country's strategic decisions and security policies. Concurrently, the political parties, grappling with internal divisions and external pressures, strive to decipher the emerging realities that will shape their roles and influence in the coming days.

This intricate tango between the military and political entities reflects a delicate balance of power, with both sides seeking to assert their interests and navigate the evolving geopolitical landscape. As aspirations and ambitions clash within these spheres, the challenge is to find a harmonious equilibrium that aligns with the national interest. The outcome of this power struggle will not only define Pakistan's political future but also determine how the nation positions itself in the face of emerging global and regional dynamics. The ability of the military and political factions to find common ground amid these intricate challenges will be pivotal in steering Pakistan through a period of critical transformation.

The overarching question persists, post February elections, will the incoming administration manage to instill stability and uphold consistent policies, or will Pakistan grapple with an enduring struggle toward achieving genuine democratic governance? The prospect of political satisfaction appears elusive, and the prevailing uncertainty leaves room for contemplation regarding the potential emergence of a more technocratic setup. If the anticipated election outcomes align with those deemed unfavorable by certain influential figures, the trajectory toward a technical administration might gain traction. The delicate balance between political forces and the quest for enduring democratic norms continues to cast a shadow over the forthcoming political landscape in Pakistan, underscoring the challenges and uncertainties that lie ahead.

As Pakistan approaches a potentially transformative period, characterized by shifts in political power, the citizens of the country find themselves in a state of anticipation for effective governance. Unfortunately, amidst the diminishing noise of accountability, concerns about governance, and allegations of political favoritism, the prospect of tangible and inclusive governance appears increasingly distant. The citizens, eagerly awaiting meaningful policies and initiatives, are caught in the complexities of a political landscape marked by challenges such as responsibility debates, administrative shortcomings, and perceptions of biased decision-making. Navigating through this tumultuous environment, the hope for governance that addresses the needs and aspirations of the people remains a distant yet crucial goal for the future of Pakistan.

The author is a global competitiveness, risk, and development expert. He leads Mishal Pakistan, the country partner institute of the Future Economic and Societies Platform at the World Economic Forum.

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