Degrees of Uncertainty: How Enrollment Declines are Impacting Colleges & Universities

To say higher education is in crisis is an understatement. From declining enrollments and skyrocketing costs to the botched rollout of the new FAFSA, challenges that once appeared to be fleeting problems are now permanent fixtures on campuses nationwide.

Much like an endangered species losing its natural habitat, many higher education institutions are struggling to adapt to this volatile environment, fighting for survival amidst a landscape where their very existence is threatened by the pending enrollment cliff, increased competition for students, and shifting perceptions on the value of a college degree.

Enrollment Threats Are Putting Colleges and Universities in Jeopardy

We’ve been hearing warnings of the looming enrollment cliff for years. But now, the edge of the cliff is coming into view. Higher education enrollment peaked in 2010, and since then, has slowly declined. The pandemic accelerated the pace, and while some institutions are seeing signs of recovery, the effects will likely be short lived.?

The enrollment cliff is coming - and it’s coming soon. Birth rates began dropping about 15 years ago, and experts predict that by 2038, the number of potential college students in the US will be 25% less than it is today. Not only will this drop cause hundreds of schools to fail, but many others will be in danger of going under, treading water simply to stay afloat.?

We’re already seeing signs of this trend today. Earlier this year, an article in the Hechinger Report stated that roughly one university or college per week, on average, has announced that it will close its doors or merge with another institution. And as the pool of eligible students shrinks, this trend will only get worse.?

Moreover, international student enrollment is also in flux and often impacted by global affairs. Recently, the international student population dropped from 1,075,000 in 2019-2020 to roughly 914,000 the following year, primarily because of the COVID-19 pandemic. But in 2022-2023, it bounced back, surging by 14%.?

And don’t forget about the FAFSA fiasco. FAFSA applications were down 11% compared to last year, with many students anxiously awaiting financial aid packages well into the summer. For some students, a late financial aid award could sway their decision on which school they will attend in the fall. For others, it will determine if they attend college at all.?

But as the odds continue to stack up against them, many institutions are taking a long-term view, supplementing their proven approaches with new strategies and unconventional tactics to appeal to prospective students and protect their viability for years to come.?

Unconventional Tactics for Unconventional Times

For many students, the FAFSA delays made it virtually impossible for them to commit to a college or university. Some waited patiently, hoping their dream college would still accept them once their financial aid offer came through, while others opted to take a year, bypassing the stress altogether.?

And students were not the only ones impacted. Colleges, especially small, tuition-dependent ones, struggled to fill seats, despite offering extended commitment deadlines and other incentives to attend. With smaller than usual incoming classes, some institutions employed unique tactics to entice more students to apply and enroll.?

Take Ferrum College as an example. The College is taking an all-hands-on-deck approach, launching marketing campaigns, canvassing potential students via phone, and rolling out a bare bones application, all in an attempt to make up the shortfall of students. In fact, Inside Higher Ed recently reported that Ferrum College’s President, Mirta Martin, even went door to door throughout the greater Roanoke area, leaving pamphlets and flyers on porches and in mailboxes.?

Valparaiso University is also facing enrollment shortfalls and budget deficits. In addition to traditional measures such as cutting academic programs and faculty positions, the University is exploring other, unconventional tactics, including potentially selling artwork from the Brauer Museum of Art’s collection.?

Other institutions, like Full Sail University, are sending direct messages to adult learners via LinkedIn, suggesting programs that may be of interest given their profile and experiences. This type of prospecting, while common in a business setting, is new for higher education. But it could be a signal of what’s to come.?

Higher education marketing budgets are on the rise, and it’s not just private, for-profit institutions like University of Phoenix who are spending big bucks. On average, higher education institutions spend between $429 and $623 per enrolled student. Digital marketing is a newer line item in higher education budgets, but one that’s on the rise, with 70% of higher education institutions looking to increase their spend in 2024, while 86% have used tactics such as pay-per-click (PPC) as part of their digital advertising strategy.?

Nontraditional Tactics for Nontraditional Students

While the pool of potential students remained relatively flat from 2010 through 2020, students' attitudes towards college are changing - and so are their expectations.?

Students today demand greater flexibility than they have in the past. And while many students continue to pursue a traditional 2-year or 4-year degree, others need to balance their educational goals with work and family responsibilities as well.?

Non-traditional enrollment models, such as competency-based education (CBE), non-standard terms, subscription periods, and nonterm, offer students greater flexibility with when - and how - they earn their degree.?

Competency-based education and other non-traditional programs signal a departure from traditional higher education in a number ways, ranging from the structure of the academic calendar to the way institutions disburse financial aid. But many institutions recognize the need to make the shift. According to the National Survey of Postsecondary Competency-Based Education (NSPCBE), 13% of respondents have CBE programs in place and 47% are in the process of adopting CBE.?

Programs that focus on competencies measure learning or mastery of a given subject, not credit hours for a particular course. And for many students, this approach is appealing. Institutions that offer flexible enrollment models will attract a different type of student, one that, in the past, may not have considered enrollment at their institution.?

Change is no longer an option, but an imperative. And while implementing unconventional tactics and embracing non-traditional programs is a good place to start, these efforts alone will not be enough.?

To thrive, colleges and universities must take a close look at their current operations and strategies and assess ways to evolve their approaches to meet the needs of today’s students and prepare them for the modern economy.