Defying Darwin - The Fight Against an Invisible Enemy

Kirk Bowett - 30 March 2020

With the western world grinding to a halt in response to the global pandemic of the corona virus, it is becoming quite apparent that the impacts of this outbreak will have far reaching socio and economic impacts well in to the future.

Origins of the outbreak

It became clear by mid January 2020 that China was dealing with a pandemic that originated at a wet market in there city of Wuhan in Hubei province. There has also been some speculation as to the source of the outbreak in Wuhan which is is also home of the Chinese Governments main biological testing facility.

Further investigation has revealed that the outbreak was first detected as far back as mid November 2019, but local authorities in the region suppressed information from medical experts in what is believed to be an attempt to solve the situation domestically and save face.

The Horse had Bolted

It was however far too late, by early December spikes of severe seasonal flu began to emerge in larger cities in the Western Hemisphere. Initially thought to be bouts of seasonal flu, many more people were becoming infected than would usually be the case.

At 2pm on the 30th January 2020 Public Health England published data announcing -

"The report also shows that in week 4, 2020, statistically significant excess all-cause mortality by week of death had been seen overall in England." (PHE REPORT 03012020)

My first question is this, have between December and now either you or a family member had a significant bout of flu? If so you may very well have contracted Covid - 19.

The Data

The UK government is relying heavily on what it knows with regards to data, in this case and with the scarceness of testing kits available actually how many people have been infected. It can be suggested that many more have contracted Covid 19 and recovered, even people who have carried the virus and not shown symptoms. In light of this the mortality rates can be estimated to be much lower than current information suggests.

Response From the US

US President Donald Trump has at every stage downplayed the impact of Covid 19 on the US population and instead of locking the whole country down has targeted trouble spots such as New York.

Trump has on many occasions stated that "as the warm weather get here the virus will vanish". There are a number of reasons why Trump is being optimistic in his approach to defeating the virus. Firstly it is as a result of how vast his population is, governments in charge of large populations tend to be more accepting of a greater proportion of loss due to catastrophic situations. Countries like China and Russia also have a similar acceptance of loss for the greater good.

But what do I mean greater good?

Donald Trump knows that if he locks down his country in the same manner as European countries it will be suicide for his economy and in turn cause greater humanitarian crisis for US Citizens in the medium and longer term. Leaders of larger countries are more willing to take a risk with their citizens in the short term in order to prevent economic suffering in the long term.

What about the UK and Europe?

This pandemic couldn't have come at a worse time for Europe and then EU. With the UK departing the EU this year and the onset of the pandemic, we have seen individual nations naturally take back their own sovereignty, close borders and tackle this crisis with the best that their health services can offer.

In fact this situation has show the true disparity in healthcare ability across Europe and the levels of resilience that each health service has in response to the outbreak differs dramatically. Cultural responses also resemble something like we have not seen since the Second World War.

The Curve

In the UK in the coming weeks it is hoped we see a curve in the rise in those showing signs and symptoms of the virus and death rates as a result reducing. The deputy chief medical officer has mentioned that stringent measures could be in place until at least June in order to tackle a potential second spike in cases, should we get back to normal too quickly.

But is this the long term solution?

So lets say we defeat Covid - 19 this year and the world gets back on its feet. We create a vaccine for Covid - 19, protect our elderly and infirm and get our economies back on track. What lessons will we learn, will cultures stop the practice of eating animals that cary these dangerous pathogens and will governments stop testing for newer more lethal biological weapons?

In a couple of years we will look back at the impacts of this situation and its impact on our societies. If this has not unified humanity against a common threat it will most certainly divide us, I certainly hope for the former.

And finally what will our response be to the next inevitable Corona virus?