Definite Optimism

Zero to One was recommended to me by a close friend of mine. I was beginning the process of starting a business and he thought it would be a good resource to help me on that path. I was instantly hooked by Peter Thiel and Blake Masters writing styles, how they introduced earth-shattering concepts in such a casual and matter of fact manner. 

They also make great use of two by two matrixes to describe many of the concepts including, definite optimism. It’s introduced into the sixth chapter, You Are Not a Lottery Ticket, which is all about discussing the correlation between luck and skill in having success in life and in business. 

He goes into great detail about each category and how everyone falls into one of these four quadrants created by the axis of definite/indefinite and optimistic/pessimistic. To help paint the picture I’ll do a quick overview of how they see each of these categories.

Indefinite Pessimists: “An indefinite pessimist looks out onto a bleak future, but he has no idea what to do about it.” This is modern-day Europe, they have little direction and there isn’t one central power in charge to take them down a specific path. There is an acceptance of an inevitable decline since the 1970s so all they can do is eat, drink, and be merry while they wait for it to happen.

Definite Pessimists: “A definite pessimist believes the future can be known, but since it will be bleak, he must prepare for it.” This is modern-day China, they have gone through staggering growth over recent decades but this is the product of them being so far behind to start out. China discovered that the easiest way to grow was to copy everything that has worked well in the western world but he argues that with the massive population and increasing resource prices they will never be able to match the living standards of the richest countries and the Chinese know it.

Definite Optimists: “To a definite optimist, the future will be better than the present if he plans and works to make it better.” This was the methodology of the leaders of the Western world from the 17th century through the 1950s and ‘60s. These leaders were scientists, engineers, doctors, and businessmen who made the world better than what was previously imagined possible. From building the Golden Gate bridge in four years to walking on the moon 11 years after NASA was founded, these achievements were made due to individuals dreaming up a better world and taking tangible steps to make it happen.

Indefinite Optimists: “To an indefinite optimist, the future will be better, but he doesn’t know how exactly, so he won’t make any specific plans. He expects to profit from the future but sees no reason to design it concretely.” This is modern-day America, there is an overwhelming assumption that things will continue to get better but very little proof of that being the case. There has been a societal shift to celebrating individuals who choose the established path like becoming a Lawyer or Investment Banker who don’t create anything new but instead, rearrange valuable things that already exist. 

I don’t agree with everything that is in this chapter or how he depicts each of the quadrants but I firmly believe that definite optimism is the best approach to leading a happy and successful life. 

At the moment I read this chapter I was on the train from San Francisco to San Mateo heading to work at my job as an Account Executive for a software company. I had known that I didn’t want to live in San Francisco or work in the software industry for quite some time but there I was on the same train going to the same job with no end in sight.  I was living the life of a textbook indefinite optimist, I knew I wanted a different future but was doing nothing to make it happen.

Before that train arrived in San Mateo, I made the decision that I was going to change my approach and live more like a definite optimist. 

The first thing I did was commit to moving out of San Francisco and back to the Midwest. I scheduled a dinner with my CEO to talk to him about my future and inform him that I would be moving back to Chicago.  I went into detail about how I was working on a business idea and planned to move in with my parents to save money while I worked to bring this idea to life. 

Since I had already made the decision that I was moving back to Chicago, the conversation was about how to move forward given this new reality. I presented the option that I would stay on in my current role and work as a remote employee while I worked to get the business off the ground in my spare time. I knew that this was not an easy ask so I also made it clear that I would understand if what I was proposing wasn’t an option. He ended up saying yes to everything and I was a full-time remote employee living and working out of my parent’s house in Lake Forest, IL within a month.

I’m not trying to say that everything happened just because I made that one decision on the train. I was in a very fortunate situation where I worked for an incredible CEO who had a genuine interest in my success as a person.  I had also built a good enough relationship with him through my work over the previous 18 months so that I could go to dinner with him and have that conversation, and he believed that I would continue to work hard outside of the office. 

It’s also important to note that, outside of actually moving back to the Midwest, zero things worked out the way I had planned. I chose to spend my time as a remote employee traveling to see friends instead of focusing on my business, had some personal issues arise that took my attention away, and I found myself in a similar indefinitely optimistic situation not too long after. 

What I will say is that even with everything going awry I was still objectively closer to my dream of living where I wanted and doing what I wanted than I was sitting on that train going from San Francisco to San Mateo.

I credit this book and the concept of definite optimism for the fact that I’m posting this from my new home of Denver, Colorado. My plans have continued to get blown up and nothing works out exactly the way I drew it up but the act of making plans and attempting to execute them is what I believe has gotten me to this point. I strongly encourage everyone to read the book and see if there’s an opportunity to live life with a little more definite optimism.