Defining Ireland's National Ambition post Covid-19, - Welfare or Work ?

TIME TO GO ON THE OFFENSIVE 

Introduction

The answer to the title's question will be a very clear statement of the new government’s ambition for its people, their livelihoods and their country.

This article makes the urgent case for the new government to act decisively and make Work their core and shared vision for the country, and to 'do what it takes' to make this happen using State driven Public Works Investment Projects driving inclusive employment and sustained demand.

Fig 1 . The choices By Frank Hughes

I am an architect with over 30 years experience working in Ireland and in different countries and cultures , settling back here in 1993. I took the opportunity of the lockdown to study similar scale economic shocks to countries and their solutions, how they might inform our solution.

In my opinion, there was really only one very relevant to Covid-19 global shutdown and the solution radical, innovative and life changing for millions of Americans and for generations.

The lessons learned from the powerhouse which was the New Deal form the basis for this article. The lessons were - a Work mindset, use of experienced experts in different fields , create sustained demand across all sectors, geographies and inclusivity of employment and training.

Fig 2. New Deal Project locations mapped by Living New Deal.org

Without creating sustained demand for goods and services within the country, our economy will enter a welfare and supports death spiral, endemic unemployment , degraded public services and no money to implement important policies.

The same grim existential problem faced America in the 1930's Great Depression . A visionary Franklin D Roosevelt , through tenacity, creativity and collaboration did what it took to solve it.

His New Deal used Public Works Projects across America to create that sustained internal demand , inclusively employing millions and providing the foundations for growth of the economy for decades after. This proven model now needs to become the central focus for Ireland's recovery.

Choosing a Mindset

The choice of mindset determines how problem-solving is approached and the outcomes. How a country navigates challenges, obstacles, effort, criticism depends on the government mindset adopted and the decisions and outcomes affect all citizens.

One mindset follows best practice normal operating procedures and the other recognises when much more radical solutions are needed to solve very difficult problems.The two mindsets of Welfare and Work are illustrated by the following quotes ;

Welfare

"300,000 will be unemployed for years to come " May 2020

Work

“ Who needs to be in this room now to solve this?" 1933

In 1933 Roosevelt's government was faced with an Unemployment rate of 24.9% ( 31 million ) he chose to do what it took to solve the problem. For the purposes of this article Roosevelt's mindset is the Work mindset.

Later in US history, more evidence of this mindset in JFK put a man on the moon. and set in motion a revolution in technology.

" Not because it is easy but because it is hard"

JFK Rice Stadium Speech transcript

Fig 3. By NASA

In the Irish context TK Whitaker Sean Lemass and William H Walsh had this mindset to make radical changes for the benefit and future of the economy, again learning the lessons from the New Deal.

Fig 4. Infographic from Visualizing Economics - Ireland's current Unemployment rate at 28.2% for April 2020.

THE NEW DEAL

Roosevelt's Work mindset and the resulting key infrastructure projects of the New Deal provided inclusive employment / retraining for millions and the solid foundations for economic growth for decades after in America. Most of these projects are still in use today.

Fig 5. Montage by Frank Hughes - see individual credits under

Some of the New Deal Public Works Projects - Rural electrification , Hoover Dam and schools, Parks and Tennessee Valley Authority , Land Reclamation , Parks , Training and Public Art.

A more detailed overview of New Deal Strategy , projects and potential for Europe can be found here.

Had he adopted solely a defensive Welfare mindset , letting the markets decide approach, the country would have faced social unrest, ruin, with little demand or income to keep the economy moving or public services functioning.

Roosevelt acted quickly. He brought together the best , most experienced minds in the country to advise and develop the New Deal Strategy and programmes providing sustained demand for goods, services , employment and taxes in the country. 

Ireland now needs to go on this Work offensive and at scale with the same rigour.

"We are all in this together" needs very urgently to move from being a slogan of solidarity to become a problem-solving, demand generating powerhouse or we face a decade of economic decline.

SME need for sustained Demand

The Small Business Recover Plan May 2020 states under its Third Principle - Demand

"Recapitalised Firms (using supports + credit*) will struggle and fail if there are no customers." 

Creating sustained demand through Public Procurement during a deep recession is the only way viable SME's can survive to employ people , pay taxes to keep Public Services functioning.

CONTENTS OF ARTICLE UNDER

1. Public Works Projects for Ireland creating sustained demand
2. Current Irish and Global Outlook
3. Sample Public Works Investment Projects
4. What is needed to make this happen and Trade Offs - Work or Welfare ?
5. What is our National Ambition?

WHAT ARE PUBLIC WORKS PROJECTS ?

Fig 6. Options for Public Works Projects By Frank Hughes

Examples of Public Works Projects ( in colour) addressing confirmed policy needs in Ireland -( threats in white) some are less technical following New Deal model to permit more accessible employment, training and some more technical - heavily engineered Projects.

Existing infrastructure projects such as Broadband could include enhanced apprenticeship and trainee programmes. Additional resources need to be provided within the Public Sector to deliver the scale and range of projects required for Recovery. Public Procurement will need to be redesigned to permit smaller firms to compete.

HOW DO PUBLIC WORKS PROJECTS CREATE DEMAND ?

Fig 7. Creating Demand By Frank Hughes

The State finances and oversees the Projects similarly to New Deal , buying goods and services directly from companies, self employed and subcontractors. They in turn buy goods and services from their indirect suppliers. The scale and extent of projects countrywide spread the demand in sustained way over the duration.

The confidence brought from job security allows for disposable income to be spent locally. All pay tax on their earnings to finance the country's public services and repay Covid-19 long term investment borrowings.

The Public Procurement Process will need to be amended to make these projects more accessible to smaller companies and Self Employed.

Who needs to be Employed by Public Works Projects ?

The sustained demand for goods and services generated by the projects provides Direct and Indirect employment. Small Business accounts for 65% of Employees in Ireland.

Where do these projects need to be to create sustained demand ?

Projects need to be located countrywide following a Masterplan and completed in phases.

Fig 8. Scale for sustained demand By Frank Hughes

How do they need to be prioritised ?

Within an Overall Masterplan for the Country and adapting policies and strategies which already exist , the Public Works Projects would be designed and prioritised by sector and region to employ as many people as possible.

They would also include retraining, apprenticeship programmes .This would be based on CSO data of Employment need in each county and online questionnaires.

Newly Unemployed people have different skills , some would need retraining , upskilling . Others would have more transferable skills for the projects.

Fig 9. Prioritising and Project matching By Frank Hughes

Training will be a core part of the process, all trainees working under experienced professionals.

Anatomy of a Public Works Project

Fig 10. By Frank Hughes

Showing the categories of people employed by each Public Works Project

Why does the Public Procurement Process need to be redesigned now ?

The Public Procurement Process currently uses very high turnover thresholds for most projects of any scale which only larger companies can meet. This excludes many Small businesses from accessing work which they have the experience to deliver but not the turnover.

To provide inclusive employment for smaller companies and Self Employed these will need to be redesigned to permit more access and encourage more opportunities for innovative smaller companies.

Small Business Recovery Plan

The following is an extract from the Recovery Plan.

Fig 11. Extract from the Recovery Plan.

We Can Build Better

A voluntary organisation of Engineers and Architects outlines their strategy for improving access for smaller practices to public procurement and quality in the built environment. They are actively lobbying for change.

Fig 12. We Can Build Better extract

"What needs to change ?"

"Acknowledge that turnover is not always an appropriate method of assessing capacity and that minimum turnover thresholds exclude SME’s."

"Most large or very large projects within a design company are carried out by 4 - 6 member teams."

CURRENT IRISH ECONOMY OUTLOOK

These will be updated regularly due to the uncertainty of the Pandemic.

Stability Programme Update - April 2020

In April 2020 Minister Paschal Donoghue issued the Stability Programme Update with the following outlook figures on GDP and Unemployment rates for 2020. 

The Unemployment rate forecast for 2021 was 9.7% and GDP at 6% .

The drop in GDP has in May been further downgraded.

Central Bank Bulletin 2 - 2020

April 2020 The Central Bank’s Outlook graphically outlines their scenarios for 2020, noting that these are not predictions but scenarios as there is so much uncertainty due to Covid-19.

Fig 13. By Central Bank

On May 8th this has been updated by the Central Bank President .The Central Bank chief also said today he believes the worst case scenario for economic growth in the euro zone this year is "more of a realistic one" and should be used as a basis for planning. 

The European Central Bank has said its worst case scenario sees the euro zone economy contract by 12% GDP this year.

European Commission Spring Forecast - 6th May

For Ireland

Year estimated by EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan that Europe will recover from recession.

Minister Donoghue also confirmed that the economy will need to grow to pay for the Covid-19 crisis. 

European Central Bank

Christine Lagarde – President of the European Central Bank has stated "The ECB will ensure that all sectors of the economy can benefit from supportive financing conditions that enable them to absorb this shock," her bank said.

"This applies equally to families, firms, banks, and governments," She also added.

"Extraordinary times require extraordinary action. There are no limits to our commitment to the euro. We are determined to use the full potential of our tools, within our mandate,"

"The governing council is fully prepared to increase the size of its asset purchase programmes and adjust their composition, by as much as necessary and for as long as needed".

The ECB’s commitment to the Euro is total and as the scale of economic impact becomes more evident on all eurozone countries , further extraordinary actions are to be expected.

Central Statistics Office - April 2020

CSO Numbers on Live Register and in receipt of the Covid-19 Unemployment Payment for April , excluding those on Wage Subsidy schemes. The Labour Force in Ireland in Quarter 4 2019 was 2,741,400.

RECESSIONS, RECOVERIES AND SHAPE

Reuters carried out a poll by 500 economists in April to get their opinions on the imminent recession and recovery. Recessions and recoveries are characterised by a V - quick, U- long, W - number of smaller recessions, L- prolonged Depression.

Fig 14. Reuters Poll

Most of the 500 economists polled concluded it would be long in duration and very deep.

Forbes article explains the differences in shape which determines duration , impact and recovery profile of this recession.

Fig 15. Shapes of Recessions and Recoveries By Frank Hughes

The principal shapes of recessions and recoveries

How Healthcare and Economic Policies jointly affect the Shape and duration of Recovery

McKinsey and Company article in May responding to Covid-19 included this graph outlining scenarios for how the Healthcare and Economic Policies would affect the shape and outcome of an economic recovery.

Fig 16. McKinsey and Company graph

Ireland's Healthcare strategy and disciplined lock-down has helped reduce the spread of the virus to date. Other countries and some of our major trading partners have not been as effective in this first medical phase and risk second wave of infections.

THE IRISH OPEN ECONOMY

The Irish economy is a small and Open Economy. It is very dependent on highly interconnected World Trade. World Trade has been abruptly locked down for an extended period and most trade in Ireland has been locked down with exception of essential services .

A phased re-opening of economies is currently ongoing, each country opening at a different pace.

Fig 17. By Frank Hughes

OECD Statistics 2017 for Irish exports

Fig 18. By Frank Hughes

Global uncertainty on duration of Pandemic will impact on highly interconnected supply chain

International Supply Chains have been heavily reliant on China for value added goods to function. This is now being re-assessed for the post Covid-19 world. Re-shoring of key industries is now being openly discussed by our major trading partners including America. 

The Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell in US stated on 17th May that the US economy could easily contract by 20-30% this quarter amid the pandemic and it might last until late in 2021. He expected the economy to recover in the second part of the year if there wasn't a second wave.

Fig 19. Economist Intelligence Unit assessment

SMALL BUSINESS SECTOR - (SME)

Fig 20. Extract Seanad Report on SME 2019

The SME sectors here have been worst hit by the pandemic and represent 65% of Employees in the Irish economy.

227,000 are Self Employed with no employees and 98,000 are Self Employed with Employees ( 65% of all Employees ) CSO Quarter 1 2019 

Traditional Outlets during Economic Crises

In the Great Recession of 2007, Medtech, Pharma and IT in Ireland saved us from the worst impacts of this recession. However the wider discussion on re-shoring of Medical Industries, whether it happens or not adds to uncertainty and confidence in planning.

Emigration has been a traditional outlet for Unemployed Irish.

Travel Restrictions and more competitive internal job markets in most other countries , will mean that this route will not be an option for the foreseeable future. 

Ireland's solution this time will need to come from the inside out.

Fig 21. Internal Solution By Frank Hughes

Fig 22. CSO graph on Emigration 2003-2017

ECONOMIC RESPONSES TO DATE

Government

The Government responded quickly to provide 12 week Covid-19 Emergency payments and wage subsidies for companies here and put in place the lockdown measures early, some of our major trading partners, notably the US , UK did not.

While we as a country be able to function and be ready to trade sooner, it is likely that other trading partners may not.

A business rescue package of €6.5 billion for businesses has been announced . It will require legislation passed by new government.

Hundreds of millions of euros loans are being made available by the Home Building Finance Ireland Agency to expand the number and size of builder / developers accessing loans.

On May 10th The Government issued the Reopening Business Getting Ireland Back to Work Safely advisory , including Health and Safety Advice, Financial Supports and Guidance and Advice for Business.

While providing billions of euros to help keep the economy stable and employee / employer relationships intact this approach assumes a return to 'normal' trading for most businesses in the short to medium term.

The initiatives from government of waivers, financial supports, loans, subsidies are 'temporary' .

Where will the sustained demand for 'normal trading' necessary for business viability come from in a very uncertain post Covid-19 world ?

This in a world of very high levels of unemployment , low levels of external demand for products and services , people and companies cautious to spend ?

National Small Business Recovery Plan

This very clear and detailed Plan was launched in May outlines the steps required by government, the logic behind these steps, legal frameworks and policies to ensure the survival of this hardest hit SME sector on the island.

The Plan is defined by three principles

1. SME's are vital to our social fabric.

2. An SME Bailout is required.

3. A Crisis boost to demand is is needed.

Fig 23. Cover of Recovery Plan

While government supports will be required for the short and medium term, the plan's third principle recognises that these are not sustainable for the longer term.

"Recapitalised Firms (using supports + credit*) will struggle and fail if there are no customers." 

The need for Growth to pay for the Covid -19 crisis is also repeated by the Minister of Finance. 

The level of State intervention and funding required to create sustained internal demand at the scale needed for recovery and growth is very significant and needs urgent prioritisation.

National Economic and Social Council

This NESC Report - The Transition to a Low-Carbon and More Digital Future: Supporting the Needs of Vulnerable Workers and Enterprises published at the end of March , sets out the steps and policies required for the Irish Labour Market to adapt to the digital and low carbon future of employment within the workplace. 

Fig 24. NESC Report Principles

Their report sets out clearly the requirements for a future successful Labour Force in Ireland.

For Irish companies and employees to remain successful / viable into the future it will require the adoption of Lifelong learning , Upskilling and Retraining fully integrated and funded within the workplace. 

This will be critical as part of a plan to resource Public Works Projects.

McKinsey and Company

McKinsey and Company article 19th April – Saving our livelihoods from Covid-19: Toward an economic recovery, Andres Cadena and Fernando Ferrari- Haines outline strategies for countries to address the needs of Household, Companies, Financial System and Governments to both save and grow their economies .

Fig 25. Mc Kinsey Graph of Needs and Actions

They recommend to monitor the effects of the lockdown on GDP to establish its cost , Spend Deeply , taking a number of detailed measures including the acceleration of Infrastructure projects , fast tracking of private investment in them and foster urban renewal and housing projects. Each country having its own specific infrastructure needs. 

Borrowing and investing deeply will be required for Public Works Investment Projects for this 100 year unprecedented economic shock.

2 EXAMPLES - Less Technical PUBLIC WORKS PROJECTS

PROJECT # 01 GREENWAYS - Tourism Infrastructure

Fig 26. Tourism Infrastucture By Frank Hughes

This is one example of a Public Works Project which will provide an opportunity for retraining and redeployment of people in Tourism and other worst hit sectors. It would also open up future opportunities for Tourism in all counties through connections and linkages with existing Greenways.

Building up our Tourism Infrastructure will be critical for opportunities to be created for future generations.

Many of the proposed routes have been studied in depth and are awaiting funding to proceed . Other potential routes require feasibility studies carried out first to choose best and most cost effective options and also await funding.

Strategy for the Future Development of National and Regional Greenways 2018 -gov.ie

Projects can be broken down into smaller work packages and be completed earlier.

PROJECT # 02 URBAN RENEWAL - Low Carbon Retrofits

Fig 27. Urban Renewal and Retrofitting By Frank Hughes

This opportunity also exists as the pilot studies in 6 counties are now complete. Upgrading vacant shops, homes in our villages and towns to a low carbon standard, making them attractive , warm and liveable is part of a wider strategy to re-activate these small urban centres as commercial drivers , reduce commuting , develop communities.

One of the objectives of this initiative is to encourage owners to train in the basic skills of retrofitting to keep costs down.

The global experiment in remote working , now adopted within business thinking makes this option both more affordable and attractive. Broadband Infrastructure countrywide is one green lit strategic project to start shortly.

Regenerating our towns and villages will act as catalysta for regional growth and job opportunities for future generations.

The pilot projects were carried out in these towns and counties.

• Boyle, Co Roscommon
• Callan, Co Kilkenny
• Ballinrobe, Co Mayo
• Banagher, Co Offaly
• Castleblayney, Co Monaghan
• Cappoquin, Co Waterford

Bring Back Homes - government publications

6 Pilot Projects Towns - Low Carbon Retrofits

MORE TECHNICAL PROJECTS

Fig 28. Drawing by OPW - Highly Technical example

More technical projects such as broadband, public transport , flood defences, schools, hospitals, require more specialised skills , heavy engineering and would provide employment for these skills.

However they could also adopt enhanced Apprentice and Trainee programmes within them for newly unemployed and people starting out in careers or retraining.

OPW presentation to Oireachtas for Cork City

What is required to get these projects up and running , providing employment and demand ?

Once the decision is made to choose Work not Welfare as the national driver and Financial mechanisms in place , the same rigour for the Medical Emergency will need to be used. There will be a lot to do quickly then by all sectors to share solutions , resources and structure up.

It is likely that social housing , schools, healthcare , broadband will remain as 'normal' prioritised projects. What is critical to create sustained demand here following Covid-19 and this 100 year economic shock is to scale up the range and location of projects and expand their reach to provide the needed employment and training / retraining.

This is a suggested fast track timeline to structure up , gather the data and begin the process of recruitment , indicatively shown for June/July and the steps required to be taken in legislation and organisation to deliver the sustained demand.

The temporary Covid-19 income and wage supports had been scheduled to cease in mid June.

A pdf version of this can be accessed here.

Fig 29. Infographic by Frank Hughes

What duration would a Programme of Public Works Projects need to last for ?

Given the likely length of this recession and the national needs, fast track procurement and delivery timescales they would likely last for 5 years, but could take longer.

How would the core construction resources be able to meet this level of demand?

As recommended by McKinsey and Company above , all non-essential projects would be deferred and all resources focused on nationally and regionally important projects.

Due to Covid-19, the property market is changing and in addition to unemployed construction professionals , a national call for retired experienced people to come back into the labour force would be sent out, similar to the Medical response.

Additional training and facilities could be provided through the Defence Forces Engineering Corps and other State assets.

Fig 30. Advertisement for retired out of Labour Force Healthcare professionals

How will the large State Borrowings required for these projects be paid back?

Geary Institute Webinar

The Geary Institute of Public Policy UCD hosted a webinar on April 17th on the The Macroeconomy of Ireland Post Covid-19 with 3 speakers ( video accessible here ) from policy.ie.

• Sharon Donnery, Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Ireland 
• Beata Javorcik, Chief Economist, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
• Michael McMahon, Professor of Macroeconomics, University of Oxford. 
• Stephen Kinsella, University of Limerick (Chair)

Fig 31. Slide from Michael Mc Mahon presentation shared on Youtube

Michael McMahon, speaking in his personal capacity , noted during the webinar that fiscal discipline most of the time provides the freedom to act when necessary and that

"The best way to pay for a once in 50 years event is over 50 years"

This to spread the burden not over just the unfortunate generation but shared over generations. This is something for society and government to decide on.

Scenario for Long Term Payback

This principle of proportionality of scale of event to the payback period informed this graph under.

Fig 32. Long Term Investment strategy by Frank Hughes

We are currently living through an unprecedented 100 year global economic event.

In this scenario shown above the payback timescale is taken as 100 years with first instalment once the economy has recovered from Covid-19.

Future generations would benefit from the infrastructure provided by the Public Works Projects for their economies and fiscal discipline used in their procurement ( See Trade Offs under) .

Mc Kinsey and Company has also suggested Private Investment (Fig 25.) as a route to finance Infrastructure projects and the EU Regional Development Projects may yet take a more significant role in these types of projects across Europe.

Unrelenting work by Government with the Financial Industry to secure funding, favourable payback mechanisms and terms for these projects will be needed.

How will the Public Sector be able to manage and administer the multiple Projects ?

They will need to recruit additional experienced staff from private sector to help manage and administer the projects.

This is one important part of the employment generation brief of the Public Works Projects as both the Preparation and Procurement of these projects need to be done swiftly.

For the Procurement part they will need Industry Partners to help guide the costing and procurement process to ensure cost and quality effectiveness.

How will Public Procurement to be made accessible for smaller companies and self employed ?

The Public Procurement Process will need to be redesigned to make it more accessible to professionally managed smaller companies and self employed . It will also need to be streamlined for swift use by both Public and Private Sectors.

Fig 33. By Frank Hughes

The thresholds for turnover will need to be reduced , projects broken down into smaller parts and creative collaborations incentivised for the projects between larger and smaller companies , self employed to manage Insurance requirements.

Part of all Projects will include the engagement of Trainers, Trainees and Apprentices in line with NESC recommendations.

The State may use Bulk Buying of Materials using Industry Buyers to ensure best quality / price for materials for the multiple projects.

What are the Trade Offs ?

The many billions of euros of State investment in these projects will demand hard work and compromises by everyone to make the multiple projects viable.

• As the economic and medical responses are of a National Emergency character, the programme of Public Works Projects would be of a similar emergency requiring fast decision making and actions.
• In any fast moving endeavour , some mistakes will be made, and this is to be expected. Full transparency will be needed in order that lessons learned are re-integrated back into the process quickly.

Individuals in some of the sectors worst affected by crisis will need to use their transferable skills or upskill to move sector in order to be employed by these works projects .

This transition process will be facilitated within the programmes and every effort made to match skills and projects or training.

• To solve this unprecedented and continuing economic shock , unprecedented levels of collaboration between Industry , SMEs and the Public Sector will be needed. The collective strengths of research, policy, creativity, innovation and execution from both sectors will be critical for success.

Existing national spatial planning policies, where much of the the research data is complete, land acquisition , design and execution processes will need to be quickly examined , adapted as required and additional resources provided to fast track projects to site as quickly as possible.

Fig 34. National Spatial Plan

• Amendments to legislation will need to be dealt with swiftly and following the example of the Emergency Measures in the Public Interest ( Covid-19) Act 2020 ( 3 Days from Draft to Act).
• Once the Programmes agreed , they will have an end date within the legislation for their duration , requiring additional legislation to extend if required. This would initially need to be for a number of years in order to complete the projects.
• In choosing Work not Welfare , participants securing employment in the Projects and Programmes may need to work at fair standardised pay rates based on experience and their overheads for the duration of the projects.
• Fixed duration contracts using a transparent 'open book' approach may also likely be used , ending on completion of the Programmes. This to facilitate good State management of finances and reduce debt for future generations.

Banks , Insurance Companies , Utilities and other fixed overhead providers may be required to reduce payments by participants on these Programmes as part of this national drive to recovery and growth . This to bring down overall project labour costs for the state.

Once again the purpose of this is to reduce the debt for future generations during the period of the programme.

Fig 35. Sharing for National Recovery by Frank Hughes

The Pandemic and trading environment will be unpredictable and while all necessary public safety measures and diligence will be included in any Programme or Project, setbacks may occur , requiring adaptation.

What are the other solutions ?

Much debate is being held by economists in many countries on different options including more credit. As the Small Business Recovery Plan clearly states " Recapitalised firms will struggle and fail if they have no customers. "

Helicopter Money or free money has also been suggested to get over ' the hump' and return to business as 'normal'.

This is not seen as a solution for Ireland.

Reuters poll from 500 economists , the Central Bank, European Commission are all predicting a deep and long recession.

Combined with global uncertainty for demand and supply chain re-assessment and very limited emigration possibilities we will urgently need to use all our national energies to access the significant finance necessary , recover and create a sustainable economy for the future.

The ECB have confirmed that they will "do whatever it takes" within their mandate to save eurozone economies. This 'whatever' very likely will need to be used, based on current outlook and a Work mindset.

Our new government will need to convince the ECB and others to invest deeply in Demand initiatives for this country (and others.)

CREATING SUSTAINED DEMAND OF SCALE

Welfare and Supports long term will result in a serious decline of our economy and public services.

This solution , using State driven Public Works Projects comes from the proven model of the New Deal using strategically driven diverse projects and at the scale necessary .

It provides for inclusive, meaningful national employment and sustained demand of scale for goods and services now.

It also creates the solid foundation for the economy and livelihoods of our future generations.

Fig 36. Creating sustained demand through numbers By Frank Hughes

WHAT IS OUR NATIONAL AMBITION ?

The new government's leadership will deliver a very clear message about our national ambition for the future of the country and how we as a nation react to 100 year existential threats.

Fig 37. By Construction news

Both options and mindsets require strict fiscal management and compromises. Our National and personal ambitions will be decided by one of the directions under.

State driven Work not Welfare Projects and Programmes accessible to SME's , Self Employed will create the confidence and solid foundation for recovery , sustained growth , resilience for the future nationwide.

Fig 38. Public Works Investment Projects options and economic threats

SCENARIO A . WELFARE mindset

Driven by:

Short Term: 5-10 year approach

The need for careful balancing of National Debt with a measured stimulus to pay for Covid-19 Crisis and aftermath with growth. Market forces largely drive.

Fig 39. By Frank Hughes -photos from political websites

Characterised by:

SCENARIO B . WORK mindset

Driven by:

Work not Welfare

Long Term: 100 year approach

National Investment in the resources within the country - its people. Responds to ECB's"Extraordinary times require extraordinary action".

Turn a new page and create the necessary state driven sustained demand for recovery now and continued strength and growth into the future. Requires substantial financial investment and borrowing. State drives, reinvents procurement for its people.

Fig 40. By Frank Hughes - photos from political websites

Characterised by

Which Ambition best represents Irish values , creativity and "We're all in this together" ?

Photo Credits

NASA, https://www.flickr.com/photos/besoindair/3883418915/ ( Christine Lagarde ) Irish Flag - Construction News. Central Bank. clipart/ email Dreamtime.com

Sources

The Living New Deal, Europa EU, American History Scrapbook, Wikipedia, Tennessee Valley Authority, OECD, IMF, PWA, California Historical Society, US Census Bureau , Citizendium.org, Reuters, Forbes, MCKinsey and Company, Government.ie, RTE, Central Statistics Office,