Define the Values and Deliver the Promised
Time has flown by, and as another year draws to a close. I would like to use this final edition of my 2024 newsletter to take a nostalgic trip down memory lane.
It has been an eventful year for me on many levels. While I am content with where I am, I am looking forward to proving that 2025 and beyond will be the continuation of something grander for me professionally.
I published the first edition of this newsletter on LinkedIn in April, just two months after my abrupt departure from S&P Global. Over the past eight months, I've written eleven editions. These newsletters document my journey in learning and using both #AI models like megamoyo, perplexity, and #ChatGPT to gather information, and visualization tools like Python and #KnowledgeGraph, specifically neo4j, to analyze the results.
Before I begin my self-evaluation, I want to establish some clear criteria for judging these newsletters.
I started by looking at how the major players in the financial information services industry define their missions. Here are paraphrased versions from their respective websites:
LSEG Data & Analytics: data and analytics that help to enhance the performance of customers?
Despite the armies of marketing departments and millions spent on consultants, the underlying theme is consistent: collecting data, transforming it into analytics, and enabling users to gain insights and take actions. LSEG is bolder by claiming to enhance customer performance.
As a small player in this space, I generally agree with their mission statements. My hopes and goals are to collect accurate, timely information and, by leveraging my 35 years of experience and today's #LLM and visualization technologies, to provide aggregation, comparison, and in-depth analysis. This analysis should offer intuitive or ahead-of-mainstream insights that buy-side and individual investors can use as part of their investment process. It is not intended to be a no-brainer stock tip list like cnbc's Cramer Recommendations or Seeking Alpha’s Alpha Picks.?
However, since this is a retrospective edition, the only fair measures are either subsequent market news confirming my predictions or the relative outperformance of companies I recommended in my newsletters. Below, I've used Yahoo price charts and news links as yardsticks to measure my analysis.
1st Edition (Wall Street’s knee-jerk reaction to Netflix's less disclosure announcement on April 21, 2024) believed that stopping reporting subscriber numbers was a natural progression as Netflix transforms itself and it could succeed in disrupt the film industry at the expense of Sony, Universal (owned by Comcast) and Disney:
2nd Edition (Update on Pepsi post its Q12024 Earnings April 24th, 2024) just proposed a new visual in analyzing Pepsi’s geographic segment revenue.
3rd Edition (Deep Dive into the Supply Chain of the HBM Chip? May 1st, 2024) shared what I had learned about who were the suppliers and customers of the HBM Chip and identified “newer designs demand an expensive and complex manufacturing process, thereby limiting the scalability of HBM solutions without significant capital expenditure increases. Low yield and low quality are the two primary concerns facing those HBM manufacturers.†Subsequent to the publication, SK Hynix announced a major overhaul of its business amid mounting losses at its battery and chipmaking units in June and Samsung said it was in “crisis†and apologized for missing profit target in October.?
4th Edition (Nvidia Envy - Continues in 2024Q1 published on May 12th, 2024) concluded that Nvidia would retain its enviable share vs. AMD and Intel:
5th Edition (Powering the AI Race: Electric Utilities to Data Centers published on May 27th, 2024) highlighted Vistra’s unique combination and competitive edge due to its financial leverage, energy mix, and data center coverage:
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6th Edition (Nuances in Sentiment Analysis: Left Brain vs. Right-Brain Appealing Industries June 9th, 2024) assessed Gaps and TJX had better sentiment vs. Ross Stores and PVH:
… and WMT and Costco had better sentiment vs. BJ’s and Best Buy:
7th Edition (Understanding the Why’s - with AI or No AI June 23rd, 2024) proposed a short-term idea to opt for Intel’s suppliers instead of investing directly in Intel the company:
8th Edition (A Chip is not a Chip. A Chain is not a Chain August 11th, 2024) further illustrated in the “winner takes all†Logic Chip industry, Nvidia was growing at the expense of AMD and Intel. Further questioned the US Government's heavy investment in Intel, which was confirmed just two weeks ago that the award was cut by more than $600 million.
9th Edition (GraphRaG Institutional Holdings October 6th, 2024) used #GraphRAG technology to illustrate how to identify and compare institutions that had transacted in Apple and BOA stocks.
10th Edition (Assess ASML Using Two Segment Metrics October 20th, 2024) proposed an idea to use DUV Segment’s revenue in 2025 to gauge ASML’s future exposure to China.
11th Edition (AI, Another Evolution (not Revolution) for the Financial Information Industry November 3rd, 2024) traced the evolvement and the pros and cons of many data sets used in conducting financial analysis.?
While the above stats have certainly given me, and hopefully my subscribers, confidence in the validity and consistency of my analysis. To me, I appreciate even more these LinkedIn analytics:
To that end, I want to express my gratitude to the 500-plus and growing subscribers I have gained over the last eight months. Thank you for accompanying me on this journey, and I hope you continue to find value in my work for many years to come.
With deepest gratitude,
Simon
Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investments can be unpredictable, and outcomes can vary. Consider your financial situation and seek professional advice before making any decisions. The author may invest in the recommended stocks.