Defensive Decision-Making in Business: When Playing It Safe Becomes Risky
Nikola Sretenovic, CSCP
Senior Supply Chain Professional | Specializing in Cost Reduction & Process Optimization | CSCP & Lean Six Sigma Black Belt | Energy Sector
While reading Rory Sutherland’s Alchemy, I came across a story about choosing between Newark and JFK airports. It brilliantly captures how the fear of blame can shape decisions in ways that aren’t always logical or optimal.
An employee, tasked with booking their director’s flight, faces a dilemma: choose Newark for its shorter commute or JFK, the “safer” option if something goes wrong.
If the employee chooses Newark and the flight is delayed, they’ll likely take the blame. But if they choose JFK and the same delay happens, the blame shifts to the airline.
The decision to avoid Newark isn’t based on what’s best for the director - it’s driven by fear of personal criticism.
On the other hand, if all goes smoothly with Newark, the upside is maybe receiving a "thank you".
Around the same time, I read research by Florian M. Artinger, Sabrina Artinger, and Gerd Gigerenzer titled C.Y.A.: Frequency and Causes of Defensive Decisions in Public Administration. Their findings shocked me: 80% of managers admitted to making at least one defensive decision in the past year, and 25% of their most critical decisions were driven by self-preservation, not what was best for the organization.
These two insights shaped my understanding of defensive decision-making: a behavior where fear of blame overrides logic and undermines innovation.
It is a hidden force in organizations, and its costs are far greater than we realize.
What Is Defensive Decision-Making?
Defensive decision-making occurs when someone deliberately chooses a second-best option to protect themselves from potential blame, even if another choice would better serve the organization.
It’s not about avoiding risk, but about avoiding blame. And this behavior isn’t limited to public administration. Whether it’s healthcare, corporate finance, or marketing, defensive decision-making thrives in blame-centric environments.
Would you want a doctor to choose the most popular option for your surgery rather than the one they know is best for you?
Even if there’s only a 1% chance of failure, that risk could be catastrophic for them—and for you.
Why Does Defensive Decision-Making Happen?
1. Blame-Centric Cultures
When failure is met with finger-pointing, employees and managers prioritize “covering their ... behinds” over making bold, innovative decisions.
2. Lack of Psychological Safety
In environments where mistakes are punished, employees hesitate to take risks. They stick to what’s familiar, even if it’s not optimal.
3. Complex Bureaucracy
Excessive controls and approval processes encourage employees to take the easiest, least controversial path.
4. Misaligned Incentives
When employees and managers are judged on avoiding mistakes rather than achieving success, it reinforces defensive behavior.
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The Costs of Defensive Decisions
While defensive decisions may feel “safe” for individuals, they come at a high cost to organizations:
Consider this: in public administration, 25% of the most critical decisions are defensive. Now imagine what that number looks like in industries where innovation is crucial to survival. The impact is staggering.
How to Combat Defensive Decision-Making
Organizations can’t eliminate defensive decision-making overnight. However, with the right strategies, they can create an environment where employees feel confident making decisions based on what’s best for the company—not just what’s safest for themselves.
1. Build a Positive Approach to Failure
Shift the focus from blame to learning. Organizations with a positive error culture see failure as an opportunity to improve, not a reason to punish.
2. Foster Psychological Safety
Employees need to feel safe to take risks and speak openly about concerns.
3. Simplify Processes
Bureaucracy often forces employees to prioritize “easy” decisions over the right ones. Streamlining approvals and reducing complexity empowers employees to focus on what matters.
4. Promote Ownership and Accountability
Encourage employees to take responsibility for decisions, knowing they’ll be supported even when outcomes are uncertain.
The Takeaway: Playing It Safe Is Risky
Defensive decision-making is often a symptom of a deeper organizational issue: fear of failure and blame. Left unchecked, it erodes innovation, wastes resources, and stifles employee engagement.
If defensive decision-making has crept into your organization, it’s time to rethink your approach to leadership, risk, and failure.
Because in today’s competitive environment, playing it safe is a recipe for falling behind.
Start by fostering trust, simplifying processes, and focusing on learning over blame.