Defense Spending by NATO members
by Marta Rodríguez Ramiro
Recent remarks by former U.S. President and presidential election candidate Donald Trump have set off the alarms in Europe. At a campaign event, Trump declared that under his mandate the United States would not protect its NATO allies from a potential attack by Russia if they had not allocated the 2% of GDP to defense as established by the organization's directives. Furthermore, he said that he would “encourage the Russians to do whatever the hell they want” (Davis, 2024).
NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, recently announced that the contributions of 18 of the 31 members will reach the organization’s suggested threshold. This is a six-fold increase over 2014 when it was the case for only three members: Greece, the United States, and the United Kingdom (Frater & Berlinger, 2024). Following that year’s agreement to devote at least 2% of GDP, NATO members have gradually raised their defense spending. which increased by more than 100% between 2014 and 2023 in some Eastern European countries, several of which border Russia, such as Lithuania (270.64%), Hungary (269.58%), Latvia (197.77%), Poland (189.47%), Slovakia (153.2%), and Romania (152.15%), as well as in Luxembourg (135.08%) and North Macedonia (104.72%) (World Population Review, 2024). All but the last two have achieved the 2% target.
However, it has not been a linear process, some states’ defense spending has seen ups and downs over the last decade. Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, France, North Macedonia, Montenegro, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States decreased their spending between 2014 and 2018 and increased it from 2019 onward so that it was higher in 2022 than in 2014 (North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 2022). Others such as Canada increased their spending until 2020 but reduced it thereafter. Although almost all countries increased their defense contribution, Türkiye, the United Kingdom, and the United States devoted a lower percentage of their GDP in 2022 than in 2014. However, the first two reached the 2% threshold over the entire period. Among those that mainly kept spending up were Denmark, the Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Romania, and Slovakia. The case of Norway is curious, as it allocated 1.55% of GDP in both 2014 and 2022.
Countries that missed the 2% target in 2023 include France (1.9%), North Macedonia (1.87%), Montenegro (1.87%), Bulgaria (1.84%), Croatia (1.79%), Albania (1.76%), the Netherlands (1.7%), Norway (1, 67%), Denmark (1.65%), Germany (1.57%), Czech Republic (1.5%), Portugal (1.48%), Italy (1.46%), Canada (1.38%), Slovenia (1.35%), Turkey (1.31%), Spain (1.26%), Belgium (1.13%) and Luxembourg (0.72%) (World Population Review, 2024).
Although Spain will raise its contribution to 1.3% in 2024, it is still far from the suggested threshold (Ministerio de Defensa, 2024). On the other hand, it shares no borders with hostile neighbors from which it should fear an attack, unlike the countries bordering Russia. This is also the case among other allied nations failing to meet the 2% target. Among them, Türkiye stands out because of its conflictive relationship with neighboring Greece, a country that significantly exceeds the required 2%. Its geographical position in the Middle East also leads one to believe that it would devote more money to defense.
In conclusion, even if Trump’s words caused outrage in Europe, the countries that might fear a Russian attack, i.e. those bordering the Eurasian giant, devote at least 2% of their GDP to defense. Russia represents less of a direct threat to the rest of NATO members.
References
Davis, E. (February 14, 2024). Only 35% of NATO Countries Meet the Group’s Defense Spending Target. U.S. News & World Report. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/only-35-of-nato-countries-meet-the-group-s-defense-spending-target/ar-BB1iaMDG
Frater, J., & Berlinger, J. (February 14, 2024). Record 18 NATO states expected to meet 2% defense spending threshold this year. CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/14/europe/nato-defense-spending-target-intl/index.html
Ministerio de Defensa. (January 25, 2024). La ministra de Defensa expone las líneas generales políticas de su Departamento con una previsión del 1,30% del PIB para el 2024. https://www.defensa.gob.es/gabinete/notasPrensa//2024/01/DGC-240125-comision-defensa-lineasgenerales.html
North Atlantic Treaty Organization. (June 27, 2022). Defence Expenditures of NATO Countries (2014-2022). https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_197050.htm
World Population Review. (2024). NATO Spending by Country 2024. https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/nato-spending-by-country