In defence of urban density

Amid an international pandemic crisis some commentators are already predicting the demise of the inner city and a flight back to suburbia. Is this the wake up call we needed or a just a premature reaction to a catastrophic 1 in 100-year event?

As urban planners we need to see beyond the immediate stress, grief and disruption and continue to advocate for liveable, sustainable, equitable, and safe cities. We must be prepared to defend compact urban form and all that it offers. In the words of Richard Florida ‘we cannot give up on density.’ (Florida, 2020)

The response to the Coronavirus pandemic has varied markedly across the globe. In many western countries a key means of flattening the exponential growth in infections has been to separate people from each other. This ‘social distancing’ has thoroughly disrupted our normal social interactions and our economies. It has dimmed the lights on our great cities, turning them from engine rooms into ghost towns.

Unlike other recent pandemics, Covid-19 has gripped the entire globe. Its relative ease of transmission from human to human has seen it spread rapidly, stopping travel and trade. Although in many cases its symptoms are mild, the sheer number of cases has brought death tolls that are rarely seen outside times of war.

So, we are right to be afraid. We are right to examine our lives, our interactions, our cities carefully in order to understand how best to protect ourselves both now and into the future.

Much of the discussion around the link between the transmission of the virus and population density seems to have arisen because of the disproportionate impact that virus is having on New York City compared to the rest of the United States. Some of that discussion appears irrefutable. New York City has by far the densest concentration of residential dwellings and employment in the country.

For many of us in the Anglophone world New York is ‘the big apple’ – the paragon of global commerce, urbanity, culture, entertainment, and even sport. It is also a city that has experienced more than its fair share of tragedy in the 21st century. Who could ever forget those 9/11 images, or the devastation caused by Hurricane Sandy in 2012? Yet even in the context of these events that scale of tragedy currently unfolding is hard to comprehend.

During an unfolding event of this scale we need to avoid jumping to conclusions about cause and effect. At the same time New York is under siege, other hyper-dense cities around the world have so far avoided such catastrophic infection and death tolls. Cities like Seoul, Tokyo and Hong Kong have experienced outbreaks but, thus far, have managed to curb them. The most remarkable of these is Hong Kong, which has not only avoided an enormous risk from its proximity to mainland China but has done so without the need to lock down its population and thereby stop its economy in its tracks.

There are significant political, governance and social differences between New York and Asian mega cities that might help explain away the relative successes experienced in the latter. Having travelled to Japan on multiple occasions over 30 years I have often commented on how the cultural norms of Japanese urban dwellers seem to have evolved in response to high density living. Cultures that place a high value on hygiene, order, and strong governance would surely have a head start when it comes to dealing with a pandemic, wouldn’t they? Yet, on the flip side ‘social distancing’ is something I have often craved but rarely experienced during my visits to Tokyo and Osaka.

Across the globe, the impact of the pandemic varies wildly from country to country, culture to culture, city to city. That is because there are multiple variables that seem to influence both the transmission of the virus and efforts to contain it. The density of humans in any one location is one variable in terms of transmission, but there are others as well. Early studies are showing that factors such as levels of tourism, social norms, population age, gender, underlying health conditions, socio-economic status, minorities, and even colder, wetter climates, all influence transmission.

In terms of saving lives and ‘flattening the curve’ of the disease, the quality and ubiquity of health services and infrastructure come in to play. So too do governance systems and cultural attitudes to complying with government advice. In some jurisdictions the focus has been on testing and isolating people with symptoms. In others, like Australia, we appear to be succeeding as a result of a combination of a preparedness to shut down the economy temporarily; a general culture of acquiescence to government instructions; strong communication systems and high levels of literacy; and a world-class universal health system. 

The whole point is that urban density is not the enemy here. While the magnitude of the current situation will cause unimaginable grief, upheave our lives, and unravel the world economy for a while, cities will prevail. Civilisations and cities have survived pandemics before and will do so again. The adaptive, ingenious nature of the human species is what has led it to dominate (and threaten) the planet.

Australia’s major capitals have spent the past 20 years transforming themselves from car-dependent, sprawling donut cities into vibrant, productive, culturally rich dynamos that attract capital, tourists, and students from around the globe. Melbourne was ranked as The Economist’s ‘world’s most liveable city’ for seven years running, not because of its sprawling suburbs, but because of the qualities of its inner-city lifestyle. With apologies to the outer suburbs where I grew up, the Economist’s indicators are likely to score Carlton more highly than they do Rowville. Covid-19 may change the way we behave and design these places, but it is not going to change our perceptions of liveability overnight.

A second, and more compelling, reason for supporting density relates to the overriding existential threat that has not gone away – climate change. The links between climate change and Coronavirus may not be immediately obvious, but they are real. Animal habits are being fragmented and destroyed by expanding human settlements, while other are being dramatically shifted by changes in climatic conditions. The result is that species are encountering new diseases that they have not evolved to deal with, some of which are jumping the biological bridge to homo sapiens. To tackle climate change, we must continue down the path of creating compact, energy efficient urban forms that avoid the worst excesses of 20th century cities.

A final (currently paradoxical) reason for sticking with density is health. Low density cities are notoriously bad for our physical and mental health. Long haul commutes contribute to a sedentary lifestyle and place stress on workers and their families. People with underlying health issues are the prime candidates for acute Coronavirus symptoms. Living in denser, land use diverse localities provides the opportunity to live closer to work, recreation, and health services – potentially reducing the spread of a pathogen across a city and increasing the likelihood of it being contained. Let us not forget that the ‘hot spots’ in New York include its lower density commuter corridors.

At some point in the future we will have contained the virus and reviewed the successes and failures across a global landscape of city forms, cultures, economies, and governance systems. If we are to continue enjoying the benefits of higher density living, then we will need to learn the lessons of those cities that have managed the pandemic well. Some responses will be city-wide, like transforming Melbourne from a mono-centric to a poly-centric city in order to better disperse density; creating 20-minute neighbourhoods beyond the inner city; or expanding and linking our open space networks. Others will be local and tactical, like the many cities that are closing streets and creating new bicycle lanes to support social distancing. Others still may be behavioural, like changing the way we use elevators or the regularity of our cleaning regimes.

Finally, there is no doubt that technology will continue to redefine our lives and our lifestyles. That is a discussion for a whole separate article. While humanity has been vastly improved by the information revolution, let us also take this pause in economic activity to reflect on where we have been heading. Behind so much of the breathless excitement about smart cities and driverless vehicles, lies an insidious trend towards surveillance and control. To an extent, these same technologies have contributed to our apparent success in lowering the Covid-19 curve. But what happens when the danger has passed? Personally, I’d rather live in a vibrant, dense, human-centred neighbourhood with lots of eyes on the street, than be constantly monitored by ‘smart’ technology.

Our dense urban areas offer us too many benefits for us to revert to 20th century urban planning and its associated sprawl. Let us learn the lessons from this crisis and ensure we create vibrant, safe, healthy, and equitable cities that also serve to avoid an even greater threat – climate change.

James Reid

References

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