Deconstructing Russia's future, the consequence of Putin's aggression against Ukraine, and why it matters
We will go through a travelogue of articles and summarize as to what they mean for the Russian Federation in the aftermath of Putin's failing war against Ukraine. Start first with the Rand article. and in the end consider that Putin has made the takeover of Siberia by China a slam dunk.
https://www.rand.org/blog/2022/04/geostrategic-consequences-of-russias-war-against-ukraine.html?utm_source=AdaptiveMailer&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=7014N000001SnimQAC&utm_term=00v4N00000X5Yr7QAF&org=1674&lvl=100&ite=265393&lea=536046&ctr=0&par=1&trk=a0w4N000007cCfiQAE
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Geostrategic Consequences of Russia's War Against Ukraine
COMMENTARY
(The Hill)
Ukrainian national flags fly over graves of fallen soldiers at a cemetery in Kharkiv, Ukraine, March 24, 2022
Photo by Thomas Peter/Reuters
by?William Courtney?and?Peter A. Wilson
April 26, 2022
After two months of fighting in Ukraine, some longer-term geostrategic consequences are coming into focus. Russia may emerge as a massive loser. Aggression in Europe may be even riskier and costlier than once thought.
Aggression in Ukraine Has Dimmed Russia's Future
Despite an ebbing?“correlation of forces,”?an economically stagnant Russia has launched a costly war in Ukraine not unlike Stalin's decision to launch the Korean War in 1950. A faltering USSR likewise erred in 1979 by invading Afghanistan. In the future Russia could be more wary of the potential costs of overt military aggression.
Russia spends a lot on defense (third after the United States and China) and has modernized its military. But autocratic and rigid leadership, soldiers' poor will to fight, and deficient logistics have sapped military agility and endurance. Sanctions may deny Russia technology vital to modern weapon production. Neighbors might now be less in awe of Russia's might, and Beijing could view Moscow as a less-capable ally.
Russia's economy may decline by some?15 percent?this year, in part because of severe sanctions, which Putin has likened “to an?act of war.” In the future, the West might employ sanctions more often.
Russian aggression and atrocities in Ukraine have shattered Kremlin attempts to sow divisions in the United States and Europe.
Russian aggression and atrocities in Ukraine have shattered Kremlin attempts to sow?divisions in the United States and Europe. Western audiences may become more resistant to information technology–enabled psychological and political warfare.
Europe may further reduce dependence on Russian hydrocarbons. By August, the EU plans to end purchases of Russian?coal. This year the EU plans to cut imports of Russian?natural gas?by two-thirds. This will benefit U.S. and other suppliers of liquified natural gas.
As in 2014 after Russia's first invasion of Ukraine, China may be cautious about helping Russia?evade?or backfill Western sanctions. China's economic interests in the West are far greater.
Despite Moscow's thinly veiled threat that it might use?nuclear weapons, Ukraine and the West are undeterred. Any nuclear use could isolate Russia globally and deepen its economic decline as other states steer clear of it. Beyond any immediate military response, Western powers might further augment nuclear forces in Europe.
Ukraine Has Shined Far Beyond Expectations
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's visible and?inspiring leadership—he seems to have become a wartime Winston Churchill—and Ukraine's reliable messaging have?built confidence. Putin's?reclusive?style and unending fabrications undermine Russia's credibility. Ukraine's continued military success might hearten proponents of democracy elsewhere and discourage dictators.
Eight years of U.S. and NATO?train-and-equip-programs?have helped Ukrainians effectively use Western arms. Ukraine has humiliated Russia by compelling forces north and northeast of Kyiv to retreat and by sinking its Black Sea flagship, the?Moskva. With more-powerful weapons from the West, Ukraine can better defend its southern and eastern regions.
The West Has Learned Lessons and Gained Strategic Advantage
To counter heightened repression in Russia and a torrent of false propaganda, the West might do more to penetrate Russian walls with truthful information. Voice of America, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, the BBC, and Deutsche Welle ably use social media and VPNs. Talented Ukrainian cyber warriors with?U.S assistance?are weathering Russian cyber assaults against critical infrastructure.
The aggression in Ukraine is spurring increased NATO?defense spending, although perceptions of Russia's battlefield weaknesses could lessen the increase.
President Biden's caution that the United States “will?not fight?a war against Russia in Ukraine” might raise doubts elsewhere. Taiwan could think that if China attacked, the United States might hedge its response. But Beijing might worry that the success of U.S. weaponry in Ukraine hints at potential risks from U.S.-made precision guided munitions.
Earlier the West?hesitated?to provide heavy arms to Ukraine and the United States blocked a?MiG-29?transfer. As the fight has moved to eastern Ukraine, the West has begun supplying advanced indirect-fire weapons, armored fighting vehicles, and a variety of manned and unmanned combat aircraft.
Few goals mistakenly scored into a team's own net rival Russia's errors in reviving NATO.
The war seems to have helped nudge Biden to drop his plan to stipulate that “the?sole purpose?of our nuclear arsenal is to deter—and, if necessary, retaliate for—a nuclear attack.” The war and concerns of U.S. allies likely influenced his decision. NATO's?dual-key nuclear?posture in Europe is sustained by the German decision to acquire?F-35?fighter bombers.
Few goals mistakenly scored into a team's own net rival Russia's errors in reviving NATO. The alliance is putting?permanent, not just rotating, forces in its eastern flank. This summer?Finland and Sweden?may join NATO.
Perhaps not since the collapse of the USSR has European security been so challenged. But Ukraine and its Western partners are showing that aggression in Europe may not pay.
William Courtney, an adjunct senior fellow at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation, was U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan, Georgia, and U.S.-USSR negotiations to implement the Threshold Test Ban Treaty. Peter A. Wilson is a senior adjunct international/defense researcher at RAND and teaches a course on the history of military technological innovation at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute.
This commentary originally appeared on?The Hill?on April 26, 2022. Commentary gives RAND researchers a platform to convey insights based on their professional expertise and often on their peer-reviewed research and analysis.
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Also, now what is on the chopping block: For the record, this subsidy to the Russian federation will tank soon, and Putin will reap the benefits
https://www.ft.com/content/7b372d64-1a26-4185-836a-31e6f93f9cfb
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EU takes bulk of €63bn in Russian fossil fuel exports during Ukraine war
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It does not take an Einstein to get it, that this 63 billion Euro subsidy is not forever: In fact Putin already is hastening its demise with his faqwa against the Federal Republic of GERMANY over energy supplies,
Next
https://www.businessinsider.com/ex-kremlin-insider-says-russians-will-soon-see-through-putin-ukraine-propaganda-2022-4?fbclid=IwAR2p8x_BAaYt9H_nwXyZWEKOe3JIyU93Q4UHVDNY_GOSCd6eWUzNpuvxyEo
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Putin's efforts to conceal the deaths and economic fallout from the Ukraine war will stop fooling Russians very soon, ex-Kremlin insider says
John Haltiwanger?11 hours ago
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during the Council of Lawmakers at the Tauride Palace, on April 27, 2022, in Saint Petersburg, Russia.?Getty Images
It's only a matter of time until Russians begin to see through Russian President Vladimir Putin's propaganda on the Ukraine war, according to a former Kremlin insider who?spoke to the Washington Post.??
"In three months, the shops and factories will run out of stocks, and the scale of deaths in the Russian military will become clear," Sergei Pugachev, once part of Putin's inner circle, told the Post. Pugachev, formerly known as "Putin's banker," fled to London in 2011 after falling out with the Russian leader. The ex-Russian banker, who's been accused of embezzlement by the Russian government, has said the deterioration of his relationship with Putin made him?fear for his life,?per BBC News.?
Russia is estimated to have?lost up to 15,000 soldiers?in Ukraine since the war began roughly two months ago, but Putin's propaganda machine has?obscured the true death toll?and vied to keep it hidden?from the public. Meanwhile, Russia's economy has been left reeling from the slew of sanctions imposed on it by countries across the globe. Major companies have?left Russia?and?inflation is skyrocketing.
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Despite the dire situation, Putin has sought to paint a rosy picture of Russia's economic outlook. He's declared that Western sanctions?have failed.?
But Elvira Nabiullina, the governor of Russia's Central Bank, on Friday?told reporters, "We are in a zone of colossal uncertainty."
And according to the Post's reporting, many of Russia's wealthiest people have seen their business empires decimated as a result of the Ukraine war.
"In one day, they destroyed what was built over many years. It's a catastrophe," one Russian businessman told the Post. The man, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of retribution, was among a group of wealthy Russians who were called upon to meet with Putin the day he launched the unprovoked invasion in late February.?
As they waited roughly two hours for Putin to arrive at the meeting, one participant told the Post, "Some of them said, 'We've lost everything.'"
That said, the Post's report also said that Russian magnates are still wary of publicly speaking against the war or Putin. The Russian leader, whose critics often wind up dead or behind bars, signed a law shortly after the invasion that could see people sentenced to up to 15 years in prison for spreading?"fake news"?on the Russian military.?
"What they say is subtle: The context is that the West, NATO is to blame…They are talking about this as though it is a conspiracy against Russia," Pugachev told the Post.
But as the war drags on and the pain of the economic penalties is felt more acutely across Russia, some say Putin will become increasingly isolated and more people will turn against him.?
Vladimir Ashurkov, the executive director of imprisoned Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation, earlier this week told Insider that the Ukraine was has?accelerated Putin's downfall?because of the immense consequences for the Russian elite.?
"The beginning of the end of Putin started some time ago. But I'm confident that this war has made many people in Russia and outside of Russia unhappy with him. The people in the political and economic elite have seen their lifestyles turned upside down, their fortunes decimated," Ashurkov said, adding, "This makes Putin highly unpopular and it affects everybody. I do believe that this speeds up his demise."
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And honorable mention, the sleeper story of the decade
https://www.world-today-news.com/president-of-azerbaijan-openly-declared-support-for-ukraine-unian/
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President of Azerbaijan openly declared support for Ukraine – UNIAN
At the same time, he does not deny good relations with?Russia.
photo?president.az
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev expressed support for territorial integrity?Ukraine.
Writes about it?Interfax-Azerbaijan.
“We support the territorial integrity of Ukraine, like other countries, and we openly declare this, we do not hide behind a tree. Yes, we do not deny that we have good relations with?Russia. The principles of?international?law should in no case be distorted due to political superiority,” Aliyev said.
According to him, the?international?community, while openly supporting the territorial integrity of Georgia and Moldova, did not treat Azerbaijan the same way.
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Recall, earlier in Azerbaijan they said they were ready to host a meeting of representatives of Ukraine and?Russia?for?negotiations to end the war.
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For those whom do not know, Azerbaijan has been a defacto CLIENT state of the Russian Federation for over 2 DECADES. That this client state is now openly advocating for the territorial integrity of Ukraine, is a bomb shell. Prior pronouncements from that government have been almost obsequious in their toadying to the Kremlin. For what it is worth, something massive has shifted in that a defacto CLIENT state, is openly defying PUTIN.
Next, Russia as the Rand article is being dramatically cut down to size due to the idiot invasion , and no this is not a typo. It is in tandem with a CLIENT state, Azerbaijan, no longer in lock step with PUTIN
Last but not least, as Business insider relates, the battle field deaths in Ukraine, now over 20,000 dead and rising daily, will lead to a brutal comeuppance as mobile crematoriums, and fake news from the Kremlin will not be able to hide from the Russian public the tsunami of dead Ivans en route to the Russian federation.
I close by this remark. Russia will now lose Siberia. No that is NOT a typo. China is playing the long game, and that is to ANNEX Siberia. And right now, with a gutted military, PUTIN by 2023 will NOT be able to stop it.
Russia right now is a giant gasoline/ petrol station to Europe, but not for so much longer. Putin has stolen over 1 TRILLION USD from the Russian Federation, and what is left is a gutted keplocratic hell hole run by the Russian Mafia which is taking over what is left of European Russia.
So with that, welcome to the brave new future, Russia and of course you all DO know whom to thank for it. Thank Vladimir Putin who violated every geo strategic principle of 500+ years of Russian geo politics for his fantasy of faking it by wrongfully declaring that Ukraine is of with the Russian Federation
Andrew Beckwith, PhD
Tribal & First Nation Consultants / Veterans Administration accredited attorney that allows me to help you prepare to file a claim with the V.A.
2 年Maybe the indigenous to Siberia want to create their own nation state.....
Adjunct Professor, Department of Earth Science, Simon Fraser University
2 年The present borders between Russia and China were imposed during China's 'century of humiliation'. Lake Baikal once belonged to China. There is already much investment by China there. This view is quite credible.
Certified Professional Coach ICF, Chair - Body Corporate Property Committee (Self-employed)
2 年I agree the single most damning aspect of Russia’s #ukraineinvasion is “Russian aggression and atrocities [against unarmed civilians] in Ukraine have shattered Kremlin attempts to sow divisions in the United States and Europe.” Whatever shred of justification was available to #putinwarcriminal on 24 February - such as NATO’s unwelcome influence on Russia’s border countries - has evaporated in the cauldron of evil from so many inhumane acts of brutality.