Decoding the 'Search Cliff': A Multi-Stakeholder Approach to Navigating the Future of College Admissions
Deepak Murugaian
Building the Future of Education with EdisonOS: A Robust Software Infrastructure for Educators to Run Their Own EdTech Platforms
The higher education sector is already contending with the "Demographic Cliff," a decline in college-age students. Now, a new challenge is emerging: the "Search Cliff." This term refers to the significant drop in the number of names available for licensing in the College Board's Student Search Service due to the shift to digital PSAT and SATs and digital privacy laws. This article explores the implications of the Search Cliff the roles of various stakeholders, and offers actionable insights for enrollment leaders.
The Shift to Digital Testing and Its Implications
The College Board's transition to digital PSAT and SATs has far-reaching consequences.
Data privacy laws, such as SOPIPA in California, prohibit the sale or sharing of digitally acquired student data.
As a result, starting in Fall 2023 for the PSAT and Spring 2024 for the SAT, students taking these tests during school days will no longer be available in the Student Search Service. The College Board confirms this change will result in a nearly 40% drop in available names for student recruitment over the next four years.
The Reality of "Connections"
The College Board has introduced "Connections" as a replacement for the Student Search Service. However, the effectiveness of this new system is questionable. Connections rely on students downloading a standalone app and then engaging with display ads, which historically have low click-through rates. This makes it an unreliable source for generating student inquiries.
The Adaptive Nature of Digital SAT
The digital SAT introduces an adaptive testing model, which calibrates the student's level of performance in real time.
This adaptive nature could be a game-changer but also poses challenges for students who need time to warm up during the test.
The change aims to make the SAT more student-friendly, potentially leading to more test-takers and submitters overall.
The Test Prep Industry's Role
The test prep industry has long played a significant role in college admissions. With the shift to digital testing and the subsequent decline in name availability, the role of test prep companies could become even more crucial. These companies often have their databases and direct channels of communication with students. Partnerships with test prep companies could offer an alternative avenue for student recruitment.
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Counsellors
Counsellors are another set of stakeholders whom the Search Cliff will significantly impact. These professionals often rely on the Student Search Service to guide students towards suitable colleges. With the decline in name availability, counsellors must diversify their resources and collaborate more closely with colleges and test prep companies to ensure students are not left in the dark during college applications.
The Magnitude of the Drop-Off
The decline in name availability is staggering. Projections indicate that Fall 2026 will have 700,000 fewer names than Fall 2023, a drop of 32%. By Fall 2027, the decline will be even more severe at 840,000 names, a 38% drop. The impact varies by region, with states like California experiencing a 54% drop and states like Louisiana, Kentucky, and North Dakota facing up to 93% decline.
Operational Risks and the Need for Immediate Action
The 38% figure only represents the end-state. The impact on younger cohorts will be even more drastic, with 80-90% fewer 9th graders, 70% fewer sophomores, and 50% fewer juniors available in the search. This poses immense operational risks for enrolment teams. Enrolment leaders must act swiftly to diversify their lead sources with only two recruitment cycles left before the Search Cliff takes full effect.
Billions of dollars in net tuition revenue are at stake, and institutions that fail to adapt will face significant risks and volatility.
The Search Cliff is an impending crisis that requires immediate attention from enrollment leaders, test prep companies, and counsellors alike. Diversifying lead sources, considering partnerships, and overhauling operations are no longer optional; they are necessities.
As the SAT transitions to a digital format, platforms like EdisonOS are stepping up to fill the gap. EdisonOS offers Digital SAT Mock Tests with an Interface that closely mimics the actual testing environment, aiming to boost students' confidence and help them achieve better outcomes. Such platforms could become invaluable resources for test prep educators navigating the new landscape of digital standardised testing. The time to act is now.