Decoding the Rise (and Imminent Fall) of Xi

To decode the phenomenon called Xi, one must travel back in time - a few centuries back!

Till the 16th century the dominant trade between major nations used to be based on the Ancient Silk Route covering China, India, Persia (modern day, Iran) and Europe via Turkey (gateway to Europe). China (under the Ming dynasties) and India (under the Gupta and Maurya dynasties) were the two most important players and had the largest GDPs and share of global trade amongst countries during those days.

Fast forward to 17th and 18th centuries, that era saw significant advances in ship building and maritime activities. While China and India (under the Mughal dynasty) continued their overall hold of the world trade share, smaller European nations like the Dutch, the Portuguese, the Spaniards and the English opened up new trade routes to Asia and Africa, and also led to the discovery of America!

However, the biggest disruption came with the Great Industrial Revolution in the 1800s led by Great Britain, which triggered the first era of globalisation with massive expansion of technology and trade. From thereon, the modus operandi of the European nations transformed to colonisation through trade with China, India, Africa, America, etc. East India Company of the British was a classic example.

The next big disruption came with the end of the World War II in 1945, with then dominant Europe in disarray & in a re-building phase. It was then the turn of USSR and USA to arrive on the scene and flex their muscles. They became the two poles of the world based on their two disparate ideologies and politico-economic worldview (viz, democratic governance with capitalism vs communist governance with socialism), and the so-called Cold War started.

Some countries led by India, Egypt, Indonesia who became newly independent and also notably Sweden decided to stay away from the two blocs and formed a neutral bloc called Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). However, China charted a different course.

In 1949, Mao overthrew the imperial rulers of China through the infamous Cultural Revolution, which led to a bloodbath to the tune of millions. He converted China into a Communist country and anointed himself as the life-time Chairman. He also sold a dream to the Chinese people coined as the 100-year Dream, that by 2049 China will become the No. 1 dominant power of the world again, both economically and in military terms. He also fought Nehru’s India in 1962 to showcase these ambitions.

The next Chinese leader of significance was Deng Xiaoping. Unlike Mao, Deng possibly had more realism and practical wisdom. He was a reformist and is credited to having converted China’s economic system to capitalist concepts by attracting foreign investments to build internal capacity, however continuing to be governed by the Communist Party principles. He scrapped the lifetime Chairman concept of Mao and amended the Party constitution that the President can hold the post for only two terms. He however did not forget Mao’s 100-year dream. He coined a phrase “Lie low and bide your time”, which meant that China would play under the radar, till it attains adequate economic and military heft and then make its moves at the opportune time.

Subsequent Chinese leaders, Jian Zemin and Hu Jintao continued the same path of Deng. Over the years, with the rest of the world smug and feigning innocence and ignorance about the Chinese long-term motives, China prospered and became a power to reckon with.

And then came along, Xi Jinping!

Xi, based on his various recent moves, seems to have taken to Mao’s ideals and dreams literally. He wants to be remembered as the leader who realised Mao’s 100-year dream for the Chinese. But in his quest for this legacy, he seems to be in a tearing hurry and does not want to wait till 2049 which is two decades away. He is 67 years old now and by 2049, he will be a ripe 87 years. So, like Mao he has managed to scrap Deng’s 2-term formula and enshrined himself as the lifetime Chairman-cum-President!

To realise this dream, he has conceptualised and put in motion his pet Belt and Road project, with which he believes China will dominate the world through a debt-trap diplomacy. He has further opened-up multiple battlefronts ranging from purportedly unleashing the recent COVID-19 virus pandemic on the world to cripple global economy, crushing his opponents inside China (party leaders and even public at large), illegally claiming and occupying maritime zones of various smaller ASEAN countries in the South China Sea under its so-called Nine Dash Line formula with complete disregard to international norms and court rulings, making claims on islands belonging to Japan, trying salami-slicing tactics for landgrab from India across the Himalayas, making territorial claims with even a small peace-loving country like Bhutan, prematuely making Hong Kong a full-fledged Chinese province thereby reneging on its own signed treaty with UK, trying to usurp Taiwan, the human rights issues with regards to the Uighur Musims and the Tibetians, forming unholy alliances with perceived pariah nations like Pakistan, North Korea & now Iran including clandestinely supplying them with nuclear weapons knowhow and materials, trade and political frictions with almost all major players like US, Japan, South Korea, UK, Germany, France, Canada, Australia, et al. The list of accusations against Xi is endless!

But has he bitten too much than he can chew? Only time will tell, but there are tell-tale signs of cracks with political dissidents in China itself, Chinese public not being happy with the handling of COVID and the recent floods, China economy getting constricted with rest of the world grappling with COVID, countries and companies wanting to move out of China (like Japan incentivising its companies to relocate from China), India is staring him down in Ladakh and imposing some economic costs, US has finally woken up to the long-term China danger (with the revised US doctrine on China, closing down of China’s Houston consulate, wargames in South China Sea with two US super-aircraft carrier groups, etc.), like-minded countries are forming blocs like Quad (US, India, Japan, Australia), Five Eyes (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, UK and the US), proposed enlargement of G7 to G10 to include India, Brazil, Russia, etc.

Interesting times in geo-politics when the world is re-shaping their strategies to contain and control Xi, the face of China who is breathing fire, ala the Chinese Dragon.

PS: While Xi has been hogging the limelight, another personality, Putin, quietly and without much fanfare ensured a referendum anointing him as the lifetime President of Russia! Coincidentally like Xi, Putin is also 67 years old. Who knows, what aces he has up in his sleeves and when he will play them.

This artcile is my personal opinion and is not intended to hurt any sentiments.