Decoding the Post-COVID Reality

By Martin Reeves, Salman Bham, and Kevin Whitaker

We recently argued that divining the state of the post-COVID world involves differentiating between accelerations of current trends, temporary blips and inflection points. We also argued that analysing disaggregated, high frequency data is one key approach for doing so.

For example footfall data, which measures the frequency with which consumers visit various types of locations, is a granular and dynamic source of insights. The inhibitory impact of COVID-19 can be measured as a drop from baseline visit behavior estimated using prior year data. Looking at whether this inhibition leads or lags official social distancing guidance provides clues on what might happen after prohibitions are lifted. Lagging inhibition suggests that behaviour changes are compelled and therefore will likely revert quickly to prior patterns. Leading inhibition suggests a “COVID-19 anxiety” that may linger even after official guidance is relaxed.

Travel, elderly care and discretionary spend locations, for example, slowed significantly ahead of the March 16 US advisory. In the absence of proactive confidence building measures, this sensitivity to COVID-19 anxiety could imply a relatively slow rebound after the end of "official" social distancing.

On the other hand, foot traffic in department stores only fell significantly on or around the advisory, suggesting the possibility of faster rebound after official distancing measures are raised. Of course, substitution by digital channels and other factors will also influence the shape and intensity of any rebound too.

It is interesting that amongst group entertainment locations, cinema attendance dropped sooner than did sporting venues’. COVID-19 anxiety may have exacerbated a pre-existing trend of declining audiences and the adoption of substitutes. Sports fans’ zeal may be harder to rein in.

Now is the time when firms should be working with new high frequency data sources in this way, to detect early signals of consumer behavior change, so that they can not only shift channel and promotional mix appropriately but also prepare for the post-COVID world. 

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