Decoding Neighbourhood Disorder: A Manchester Case Study

As rates of urban living increase, it is important to develop an understanding of the intricacies of neighbourhood dynamics, including the concept of 'perceived neighbourhood disorder.' This term encompasses a range of conditions and activities that residents interpret as indicators of social order breakdown. These range from social disorder, including disruptive behaviours like street fights, and public substance abuse, to physical disorder which is characterised by visible signs of neglect like graffiti or accumulated rubbish.

A 2019 study in Manchester, England, used small area estimates, the Manchester Resident Telephone Survey, and the Residential Mobility Index to uncover insights into the factors influencing perceived disorder, and how it impacts society and the economy.

The role of churn data:

One significant finding highlighted by the study was a strong correlation between high population turnover, also known as population churn, and the perception of disorder in neighbourhoods. Model results reveal that population churn has the most predictive power in predicting the distribution of perceived disorder. Specifically, areas with higher rates of population churn displayed higher levels of perceived disorder. This churn data thus plays a crucial role in understanding the dynamics of neighbourhood disorder. It suggests that fostering stability in a neighbourhood could be a potential strategy to reduce perceived disorder.

The impact of perceived neighbourhood disorder:

Perceived disorder can significantly impact the wellbeing of residents and the overall health of a community. It can erode residential satisfaction, increase feelings of powerlessness, fear, and social mistrust. It is also theorised that uncontrolled neighbourhood disorder can lead to an increase in serious crimes. Therefore, having an accurate picture of its geographical distribution is crucial for designing evidence-informed policies and policing interventions.

Unveiling the geographical patterns of neighbourhood disorder:

The study found higher perceived disorder in most areas in Northern and Central-Eastern Manchester, with the highest levels estimated in the main commercial areas in the city centre, whilst most Southern areas have lower estimates of perceived disorder. However, areas surrounding the city centre that have lower levels of crime and poverty, have very low levels of perceived disorder, highlighting a relationship between areas with higher population churn, income deprivation, and crime.?

Implications for society and economy:

Understanding the geographies of perceived neighbourhood disorder can have significant implications for society, by aiding the design and implementation of targeted interventions to improve the quality of life in areas with high perceived disorder. It can also aid in developing community-specific strategies to enhance social cohesion and reduce fear and mistrust among residents.

From an economic standpoint, areas with high perceived disorder can deter investment and economic development. By identifying these areas, policymakers and businesses can devise strategies to revitalise these neighbourhoods, leading to economic growth and job creation.

This research demonstrated the significance of churn data (Residential Mobility Index) from the Consumer Data Research Centre in gaining a more comprehensive understanding of our neighbourhoods and the factors influencing their wellbeing, particularly the impact of population stability on perceived disorder.?

Publication: Buil-Gil, D., Medina, J., & Shlomo, N. (2019). The geographies of perceived neighbourhood disorder. A small area estimation approach.?Applied geography,?109, 102037. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2019.102037

CDRC Data: Residential Mobility Index https://data.cdrc.ac.uk/dataset/cdrc-residential-mobility-index?