Decoding a global crisis (III) - Numbers, opportunities and a reset

We are now well in the fifth month of the COVID-19 outbreak - the number of infected has exceeded 1.7M, with more than 100K deaths. The United States and Europe are now the new epicentres of the pandemic, with more than 500K infected in both regions. It was reported by the Business Insider that close to a third of the world is experiencing some form of a lockdown. It feels like a lifetime since I first wrote on the pandemic in February, and the world seems to have transformed into a very different place since then. Virtual meetings, remote learning, food deliveries and home workouts have become the new normal. While some have adapted to this new environment, the lockdowns have hit the poor and vulnerable the hardest. Although the middle-class is coping with the short-term effects, their ability to survive this storm will be tested as the crisis drags on. In this context, many governments who see slowing infections and deaths are eager to lift lockdown measures and resume economic activity. In regions worst hit by COVID-19, experts are talking about the "plateauing" of new cases and deaths, and how the infection curve "has flattened". For the average person, the charts offer some assurance - it does seem the infection curve is leveling off in some countries. Along with "QE infinity", expectations that the worst is behind us is fuelling optimism in equity markets, with the Dow and S&P retracing almost 50% of its losses since the start of the sell-off.

I am not an epidemiologist, but as a data practitioner, I feel compelled to address this new narrative. While it is comforting to refer to reported numbers on a daily basis as a way of inferring the momentum of infections, we need to be aware that these numbers do not tell the full story. The number of reported cases is highly dependent on the number of tests conducted. It is only reasonable to suggest that the number of infections are stabilizing if tests are being conducted at the same pace throughout the reporting period. In other words, many factors could lead to lower reported infections - less testing (due to countries running out of test kits, or greater difficulty in contact tracing as the spread widens) and fewer people coming forward for testing due to the lockdown. Similarly, interpreting the mortality rate is not trivial - there is a lag between the time people are admitted for treatment and when they succumb to the disease. Studying mortality rates only make sense when examining cohorts of infections - the current death rate is due to infections happening potentially several weeks to a month ago. Death rates are also influenced by many factors - better standards of care as healthcare practitioners gain experience with dealing with the infection, greater availability of ventilators not available before, and the use of experimental antiviral treatments in some cases. These multitude of factors simply indicate that daily reported numbers do not provide a full picture of the pandemic - both its momentum and severity.

Given that many countries have implemented lockdown measures, it is very likely that new infections are slowing, so claims that we are "plateauing", may not be entirely inaccurate. However, it will be erroneous to assume that pandemics have only "one peak". Without a reliable antiviral treatment or vaccine, pandemics are more likely to occur in "waves" - retreating when severe measures are implemented to prevent its spread, and returning with a vengeance when they are loosened. Singapore is a great case in point. The country had some success in containing the virus in the early stages; however, its decision to bring back its overseas citizens from countries where the disease was still running rampant, led to a second wave of infections, much more severe than the first. This time, a spark has turned into a raging flame as the virus takes root in migrant worker dormitories with tight living conditions that make social distancing untenable. The government has responded swiftly - shifting from a stance that promotes voluntary social distancing, to a mandatory partial lockdown. The case of Singapore (and many will be watching China as well), is a lesson for countries seeking to declare premature victory over a virus that will not conform to simple political narratives.

These are difficult times, and many, including myself, would like to take solace in positive narratives - the disease has plateaued, less people are dying, the worst is over. This may well be true in part, but optimism can easily slide into complacency. As politicians and experts all clamor for attention - it can be difficult to discern factual information, from personal opinions (especially if those opinions come from people in power). We must remember that it was not too long ago that some of these same people purported that the coronavirus was just a bad flu. As individuals, we need to interpret the data with care, and perhaps to an extent, not obsess over daily numbers. The longer term reality remains unchanged - without an effective antiviral and vaccine, there is a low likelihood that the virus will be eradicated from human society in the short-term, leaving us to make a decision between the risk of restarting the economy, and the risk of not doing so. While we can hope for a quick fix, it is more realistic for us to plan for the "new normal" - to find new ways of working, new ways of creating value, new ways of living with one another. From this perspective, perhaps we all need a mental reset. The world has changed, and may not return to how it used to be for a while. Let's work together - governments, societies, individuals, to position ourselves for change. While some doors have closed, others will open. For those living more privileged lives, we can learn to live with less, and find opportunities to give more. For those struggling at the fringes, the government must do more to help, but individuals need to be willing to adapt. There are entire sectors that can benefit from more investment, innovation and manpower right now - food production, medical supplies, healthcare, logistics / ecommerce, sustainable energy etc. Companies and investors need to partner the government to support these sectors, and reskill their workers to do the same.

According to the IMF, the pandemic is the worst crisis for the world since WWII. But the crisis is also an opportunity for positive change. We need to see those opportunities, and seize them. To do so, a mental reset is required. We should not be lured into complacency by peddlers of quick fixes, but neither should we give in to the prophets of doom. There are things outside of our control, but certainly things we can do as well. And if enough people feel that way, I am cautiously optimistic that humankind will weather this crisis together and come out stronger the other side.