Decoding G20 summit

Thanks to Trump & Xi, the 2019 G20 summit had more fireworks than usual

The annual meeting of the G20—which brings together the leaders of the world’s 19 wealthiest nations plus the European Union—is traditionally greeted with fierce anti-globalization protests on the streets, but this weekend’s summit in Osaka was an exception. The atmosphere inside the convention center was more charged than on the streets, thanks to the presence of US president Donald Trump.

Japan has the presidency of the G20 this year and Prime Minister Abe found him-selves at the helm of the global grouping at a time when multilateralism has come under threat since the creation of a global multilateral regime.

PM Abe had put on the agenda topics almost guaranteed to rile the Chinese president and to avoid upsetting Japan’s primary security guarantor that is also threatening to impose tariffs on Japanese automobiles. Also on the agenda were climate change, free trade, and the infamous Hong Kong issue. The Chinese government was desperate to delist the Hong Kong issue from the summit’s agenda for the year, but it was still bought to light by PM Abe before the summit started.

There was some bloom amongst the train wreck too with the US and China coming to a temporary truce in the escalating trade war. The resumption of renegotiations between China and the United States was on expected lines and gives global markets a much-needed breather. Worth noting is the fact that it is the first time that there has been a consensus statement at the G20 reached outside of the G20 leaders’ communique.

India’s tactical non-alignment at the display

The Non-Alignment (NAM) may be a concept from the past, but India’s celebrated multi-alignment strategy slowly turning into tactical-non-alignment was clearly at display in Osaka.

The summit took place in the middle of a global power transition. All bilateral and multilateral meetings clearly reflective of this slow but gradual change on the sidelines of G20. In fact, new emerging dynamics from meetings between relatively smaller players were much more interesting than the G20 summit itself.

On the one hand, Japan-America-India (JAI) trilateral talked about improving connectivity and infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific region in the context of rising China. On the other, Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral pushed ahead a resolution for a democratic, multipolar and rules-based international order. There were also discussions about expanding cooperation in the 5G network, high technology, connectivity, energy, and other emerging tech areas.

In a rapidly changing geopolitical environment, New Delhi had many at stake. Lately, US withdrawal of preferential access of Indian products under GSP and India’s retaliatory tariffs on some US products has caused some unease between the India-US relations. Modi and Trump agreeing for early trade talks is a welcome step. Indian purchase of Russian military hardware notably the S-400 is also hitting the wrong nerves in Washington. As per the foreign secretary’s briefing, the issue did not figure in the discussions in Osaka.

India’s position on 5G is still evolving. For energy and its connectivity plans, Iran is important but American obsession with Iran still continues. On Indo-Pacific, India is closer to the US but does not want to be seen playing into American designs.

From its inception, the main agenda of any G20 meeting has been to discuss global economic governance. So the outcome of G20 has to be judged purely from its impact on contemporary global economic issues.