Decoding Cycle Indicators for Maximum Profit

Crypto is cyclical. Understanding these cycles isn't just about riding the wave, it's about knowing when to bail before the tide pulls you under. Milk Man's wisdom: "Don't let those gains round trip to zero."

Timing the exact market top? Impossible. But the right indicators, those proven across multiple cycles, can drastically improve our odds. Below, I'm sharing five powerful indicators, each with a straightforward color-coded system. It's NOT about using any single indicator, but their combined signal strength.

• Green:?Room to run.
• Yellow:?Peak is approaching.
• Red:?Sell signal.

My suggestion? Don't wait for all indicators to flash red! Scale out strategically as we get closer to the top.

Now, let's see where we stand.

1. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)

Measures the difference between unrealized profit and loss for Bitcoin holders. Once it hits 0.7 or above (blue zone), that's historically been a sign of local and cycle tops. [Insert link to relevant article].

2. MVRV Z-Score Is Bitcoin overvalued compared to its "fair value"? This unique take on the z-score method compares market value to realized value. When market value spikes far above realized value – you're in the red zone, a classic market top signal. Green signifies undervalued territory, often indicating a market bottom.

3. Pi Cycle Top Indicator

Focuses on Bitcoin's 111-day moving average (green) in relation to a 2x multiple of its 350-day average (purple). When the green MA meets the purple, that's a sign of an overheated market – this has proven consistent in pinpointing cycle tops.

4. Bitcoin Log Scale Linear Regression Channel

Examines Bitcoin's trend line on a logarithmic scale within a linear regression channel. We see standard deviations (blue for overbought, purple for oversold). Historically, Bitcoin has reached at least 1 standard deviation overbought near peaks, sometimes 2. As Bitcoin matures, volatility is expected to decrease; my baseline for this cycle's top relies on the 1st deviation overbought.

5. Global Liquidity

This chart reveals the year-on-year change in liquidity from major central banks. Crypto cycles have mirrored these patterns; there's no reason to think this time is different. This is NOT about daily or weekly accuracy, but establishing a macro trendline. When liquidity dries up (likely around 2025-26), that's an unequivocal bear market signal. Note: This chart updates monthly, aligned with central bank data releases.

The Verdict?

Four of these five indicators show green – plenty of room for growth. Only NUPL is flashing yellow, but longer dips from the ATH will cool it down. Remember, past cycles saw NUPL remain green for extended periods! The key is identifying when it approaches the blue zone (0.7).

As of now, these signals align with my core strategy: accumulate on dips.

Want Real-Time Insights?

This analysis is a small taste of what my premium group members receive. If you're serious about maximizing your returns, consider joining them. We dive deeper, track market data live, and provide the strategic edge you need to navigate this volatile market.

Looking forward to your suggestions? Do you agree or disagree?

One Crypto Ventures Laura Suárez León Mattia Ingenito Crypto News JOANNA O. HONEMA Fundación Global Democracia y Desarrollo. Funglode