Decoding the Crime Trend: Levitt's Four Factors and Their Impact on the Current Decade

Decoding the Crime Trend: Levitt's Four Factors and Their Impact on the Current Decade

Steven Levitt’s (mostly known for his bestseller Freakonomics) work in understanding crime trends has long been a cornerstone in economic crime analysis. His identification of four influential factors—abortion rates, incarceration rates, the number of police, and the crack epidemic—provides a framework for dissecting the ebb and flow of crime rates. As we witness an uptick in crime in 2019, it’s worth examining these factors to predict how they might shape the landscape of crime in the current decade.

Abortion Rates: Levitt’s controversial theory posited that the legalization of abortion in the 1970s could have led to a reduction in crime in the 1990s, as there were fewer children born into situations that could predispose them to criminal activity. With fluctuating views on reproductive rights in recent years, changes in abortion rates or access could potentially influence crime rates in the long term. If abortion becomes less accessible, we might anticipate a delayed increase in crime rates in the next decade, according to Levitt’s theory.

Incarceration Rates: The “lock ‘em up” mentality of the 1990s resulted in a ballooning incarcerated population, which Levitt correlates with a decrease in crime. Today, with many advocating for criminal justice reform and reduced incarceration for non-violent offenses, a potential decrease in incarceration rates might lead to an increase in crime if Levitt’s findings hold.

Number of Police: The connection between police and crime rates is intuitive; more police typically means more resources dedicated to preventing and solving crime. Current debates on policing and budget allocations may result in a reduction in force numbers. If public safety budgets lead to fewer officers on the street, Levitt would suggest this could correlate with a rise in crime.

The Crack Epidemic: The crack epidemic of the 1980s and 1990s led to a surge in violent crime. Today, while crack is less of a factor, the opioid epidemic has taken its place. However, the relationship between opioid abuse and crime may not mirror that of the crack epidemic. Opioids could contribute to an increase in property crime or drug-driven violent crime, but the impact might be less pronounced than the territorial violence spurred by crack cocaine.

The rise in crime noted in 2019 can be examined through the lens of these factors. While it’s not as clear-cut as during the crack epidemic, the combination of potentially reduced abortion access, reformation of incarceration policies, debates over policing, and a new drug crisis could create a perfect storm, contributing to a rise in crime rates.

As we navigate the 2020s, these factors call for a nuanced approach to crime prevention and community safety. For instance, security companies like Titan Protection could leverage this knowledge to inform strategic decisions, such as advocating for community-based policing or integrating advanced surveillance technologies to compensate for reduced police numbers.

In conclusion, while Levitt's factors provide a valuable predictive framework, the modern era introduces new complexities. Economic factors, technological advancements, and evolving social issues will also play critical roles in shaping crime trends in this decade. Understanding the interplay of these elements will be crucial for policymakers, law enforcement, and security professionals as they strive to maintain safety and order in an ever-changing society.